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U.S. Department of State
March 1995 Interim Report on Climate Change Country Studies
Oceans and International Environmental & Scientific Affairs

[SECTION 3 OF 4]

Editor's Note:  Numbers and letters contained withtin "<" and ">" marks
    represent subtext in scientific formulas.  Numbers between
    "/" and "/" represent footnotes.  Footnotes by the names of authors
    are located just beneath the names.  Footnotes contained within the
    text can be found at the end of each chapter.

________________________________________________________________________ 
 
              Kazakhstan: Overall Approaches and Preliminar 
                    Results from Country Study 
 
         Sergei Kavalerchick, Asya Fisher,/1/ Vsevolod Golubtsov, 
         Edward Monocrovich, Olga Pilifosova, Irene Yeserkepova, 
       Paishan Kozhahmetov, Lubov Lebed, Olga Glumova, Ivan Skotselyas, 
        Valery Lee, Svetlana Dolgih, Zoja Korneeva, Svetlana Mizina, 
             Dmitriy Danchuk,/2/ Ervin Gossen, Alexei Startsev,/3/ 
      Maria Amirhanova,/4/ Nina Inosemtseva, Georgy Papafanasopulo,/5/ 
            Boris Akimov, Valentin Matveev,/6/ Vladimir Medvedev, 
                         Alshin Ahmedzhanov,/7/ 
 
/1/Main Administration for Hydrometeorology at the Cabinet of Ministry 
   of the Republic of Kazakhstan 
/2/Kazakh Scientific-Research Hydrometeorological Institute 
/3/Academy of Agricultural Sciences 
/4/State Statistical Committee 
/5/Ministry of Energy and Fuel Resources 
/6/Ministry of Industry 
/7/Ministry of the Environment 
 
________________________________________________________________________ 
     SUMMARY: This report provides the overall approach and some results 
     of the work of the "Kazakhstan Climate Change Study" project in 
     three main areas: inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 
     sinks, mitigation assessment, and vulnerability assessment. In the 
     first area, the information on greenhouse gas sources and some 
     sinks, estimates of emissions and removals for Republic of 
     Kazakhstan for 1990, as well as a brief description of the 
     methodology used to evaluate these estimates and the associated 
     uncertainties are given. An estimation of future CO<2> emissions 
     from 1990 through 2000 is also presented. For the mitigation 
     assessment, the principal methods and approaches for evaluating 
     mitigation options for six sectors and some possible results in the 
     energy sector are provided. The vulnerability assessment is 
     addressing the following sectors: agriculture, forestry, and water 
     resources. The methodology for this assessment, which includes both 
     empirical-statistical and simulation approaches, is described. 
     Also, this article discusses some preliminary results and 
     uncertainties of the vulnerability assessment on the basis of 
     GCM-based climate change scenarios associated with increasing CO<2> 
     concentrations in the atmosphere. 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
                                INTRODUCTION 
 
Unfavorable consequences of climate change in connection 
with anthropogenic increase of the concentrations of CO<2> and 
other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere generate concern 
throughout the world and in Kazakhstan, too. The Republic of 
Kazakhstan is one of the 150 countries that signed the United 
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 
Kazakhstan Government supports international cooperation on 
climate change issues. 
 
     The Republic of Kazakhstan covers 2,717,000 sq km with a 
population of over 17 million. The Republic consists of 19 regions, 
220 districts, and over 80 cities and towns. The Republic consumes 
about 10 million tons of coal, and its coal reserves are estimated at 
39 billion tons. Oil production amounts to 26.6 million tons with the 
reserves estimated at about 2,357 million tons. There are also deposits 
of natural gas. The production of electric power exceeds 90 billion kWh 
including over 82 billion kWh produced by thermal stations. Per capita 
electric power consumption is 6,100 kWh annually.  
 
     The sowing areas of Kazakhstan exceed 35 million 
hectares including about three million hectares of irrigated 
land. The gross yield of grain is 25 to 30 million tons per 
year. Part of the grain is exported. The leading branch of 
animal husbandry is sheep breeding based on desert and 
semidesert pastures which occupy vast expanses. The number of 
cattle livestock is 9 million. Pigs, camels, and horses are also 
bred. 
 
     Forests in Kazakhstan occupy a small area, only 3.6 percent 
of the total territory (9,648,000 ha). Out of these, 1,800,000 
ha are covered with coniferous forests, and the rest 
with leaf-bearing woods and shrubs. The largest portion, 4.7 
million ha, is covered with saksaul. 
 
     The U.S.-Kazakhstan Project, "Kazakhstan Climate Change 
Study," was initiated on October 1, 1993. The main objectives of 
this project are to carry out the following: 
 
--  An inventory of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases 
 
--  An analysis of mitigation options to reduce emissions or 
    enhance sinks 
 
--  An assessment of vulnerabilities of agriculture, water resources 
    and forestry to the impacts of climate change and an evaluation of 
    the options to adapt to these potential impacts Two committees have 
    been organized for the fulfillment of these activities. These are 
    the governmental and working committees. The representatives of nine 
    Ministries and Departments of Kazakhstan take part in the 
    implementation of the project. The Laboratory of Climate Change 
    Study was established in the Kazakh Scientific Research 
    Hydrometeorological Institute (KazNIGMI) to coordinate the work 
    on the project. 
 
                                 METHODS 
 
Inventory of GHG Emission and Sinks 
 
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 
together with other international scientific organizations 
(United Nations Environmental Program, Organization for Economic 
Cooperation and Development, Global Environment Facility, 
International Energy Agency, etc.), has prepared the methodology 
that was used for this work (IPCC Draft Guidelines for National 
Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 1994). These guidelines provide for 
comparison and estimation of the authenticity of work obtained 
in different countries.  
 
     Information about yearly fuel consumption of all fuels for 
1990 is the basis for the calculation of GHG (greenhouse 
gases) emission from HPSs (heat power station) and large 
boiler-houses. Also, the year 1990 conforms to the IPCC 
recommendation. This information was obtained from the documents 
of the State Statistical Accounts. The yearly fuel consumption 
is recorded in tons for every HPS and for their sources of 
supply (e.g., deposit, oil refineries, etc.). Knowing the 
percentage content of carbon dioxide in every fuel, we can 
determine the quantity of carbon dioxide burned by simple 
multiplication of this percent by the volume of consumed fuel.  
 
     However, the methodology of IPCC can be difficult to apply. 
This is possibly connected with the fact that some countries do 
not have as good an initial data base as Kazakhstan does. 
For comparison of our results with data of other countries and 
to use the IPCC software, we made our calculations with IPCC 
methods. 
 
Mitigation Analysis 
 
The aim of Kazakhstan's mitigation analysis is to 
develop recommendations about options to decrease GHG emissions 
and increase CO<2> absorptions by vegetation. All the 
possibilities of GHG emission decrease in the branches of 
Kazakhstan economy were evaluated taking into account both their 
benefits and costs. The scope of these branches includes energy, 
industrial, transportation, residential and commercial, 
agriculture, and forestry sectors. The evaluation of the total 
potential for decrease of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan will be 
based on two scenarios relating to "pessimistic" and 
"optimistic" hypotheses of development of the Kazakhstan economy 
for period through the year 2020. 
 
     The methodology will consist of the calculations of the 
likely decrease of GHG emissions with fuel switching, the 
introduction of the new technologies, the increased use of 
renewable energy sources, more active use of CH<4>, and other 
options. The official state statistical data will be used. If 
these data are not available, the methods of balance accounts 
will apply. The latter are based on data which were obtained by 
the Scientific Research Institutes of Kazakhstan as well as on 
calculation of specific coefficients contained in the IPCC 
methodology. 
 
     The creation of scenarios of economic development will take 
into account the predicted assessments of the Departments of 
Trade Ministry, Kazakhstan Ministry of Economics (former State 
Planning Committee of Kazakhstan) and Kazakhstan Institute of 
Economics of Academy of Science. To carry out the mitigation 
analysis in the energy sector the ENPEP model--developed by 
Argonne National Laboratory--will be used. 
 
Vulnerability Assessment 
 
The climate change vulnerability assessment in Kazakhstan 
is addressing the following sectors: crops, potatoes, 
grasslands, sheep-breeding, water resources, and forestry. These 
sectors have been chosen as being of the widest interest to our 
country and as having the most susceptibility to climate change. 
 
     The first step in the vulnerability assessment was 
the development of future climate change scenarios. Scenarios of 
the main climate change for Kazakhstan to asses both 
long-term (doubling CO<2> in 2050-2075) and short-term (2010, 
2030) impacts were prepared. The climate change under a doubling 
of CO<2> was obtained on the basis of General Circulation Models 
(GCM) outputs. We used outputs of three GCMs: the model of 
Canadian Meteorological Center (CCCM) (Boer et al., 1991), the 
model of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) (Manage 
and Wetherald, 1987), and a transitional version of the same 
model (GFDL-Transient). 
 
     The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using 
the Probabilistic Forecast Model (PFM) (Gruza and Rankova, 1991) 
we adapted to Kazakhstan (Pilifosova, 1991) for the year 2010 
and the results of GFDL-T for 2030. Moreover, to evaluate 
future climate changes for comparison, a baseline climate 
scenario was used. This scenario represents the current climate 
for the base period 1951-1980 without a warming trend in the 
baseline. 
 
     The assessment of vulnerability in some sectors was 
based on models developed in Kazakhstan. Thus, for the 
estimation of yield of agricultural crops and grasslands we used 
a nonstationary dynamic model that had been developed by 
KazNIGMI several years ago (Lebed and Belenkova, 1991). A 
similar model was employed for estimating the yield of potatoes 
(Glumova, 1988). An assessment of the vulnerability of 
sheep-breeding was carried out on the basis of an unfavorable 
weather conditions criterion for sheep productivity (Gulinova, 
1988). A mathematical runoff model was applied in the water 
resources sector (Golubtsov et al., 1989). 
 
     In general, the main principle for application of these models 
to the vulnerability assessment was defined as follows. Different 
climate variables (air temperature, insolation, humidity, rainfall, 
etc.) were used as model input parameters. The simulation first was run 
under the current climate conditions in accordance with a baseline 
climate scenario. Then input climate parameters were changed according 
to the regional climate change scenarios and used in another simulation. 
The difference between these simulation outputs represented the changes 
in the yield of agricultural crops, grasslands, livestock (sheep), water 
resources, and forests, which occurred due to climate change impacts. 
 
     Obviously, in a number of cases the application of these 
models required the transition of climate parameters from one 
space-time averaging scale into another. For example, monthly 
means of air temperature and precipitation were obtained from 
the GCMs. But models of the yield of agricultural crops require 
the 10-day mean data. After the data adaptation and fitting of 
model parameters, analysis of the model sensitivity to different 
changes (e.g. incremental scenarios) of input climate parameters 
was conducted. For example, the estimation of vulnerability of 
crops and sheep when air temperature is increased by 0.5oC 
through 4.0oC was conducted. Input data included observed 
climatic data from numerous reference books, data on crops 
productivity of The State Committee on Statistics and some 
experimental data from agricultural fields. 
 
     In addition to models developed in Kazakhstan, we used the 
DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) 
model. DSSAT integrates the models which generally describe 
the development, growth and yield of crops on homogenous area of 
soil exposed to certain weather conditions. This system was 
useful for running and validating the models, for conducting 
sensitivity analysis, and for evaluating the variability and 
risks of different management strategies for a range of 
locations specified by soil and weather data. The CERES-Wheat 
model (Ritchie, Otter, 1985) from DSSAT developed by 
IBSNAT (International Benchmark Sites Agrotechnology Transfer) 
was used for spring and winter wheat productivity vulnerability 
assessment in Kazakhstan, which was based on the GFDL and CCCM 
scenarios. 
 
     The Holdridge Model was used for the assessment of 
vulnerability of forestry. We prepared the distribution of 
Holdridge life zones (Holdridge, 1967) under the current climate 
conditions as well as the maps of these zones for four climate 
change scenarios on the basis of GCM outputs for a doubling of 
CO<2> levels in the atmosphere: GISS (Hansen et al., 1983), UKMO 
(Wilson and Mitchell, 1987), OSU (Shlesinger and Zhao, 1989), 
and GFDL. These GCM outputs were built into the Holdridge model. 
 
     The Holdridge model relates the current spatial distribution 
of vegetation to features of the climate system. The 
Holdridge classification is suitable for examining the 
broad-scale patterns of vegetation as they relate to climate and 
how changes in climate patterns may influence the suitability of 
a region to support different vegetation/forest types. However, 
this approach does not address vegetation processes per se and 
as such cannot be used to predict the temporal dynamics of 
species composition and stand productivity, features that are 
important in evaluating the potential impacts of environmental 
change on forest resources and conservation. In order to make up 
the maps of the territorial distribution of forest we chose the 
additional scheme, which connected the forests distribution with 
a precipitation and evapotranspiration (PET) model. 
 
                                   RESULTS 
 
Inventory of GHG Emission and Sinks 
 
The GHG emission inventory for the Kazakhstan territory for 
1990 was completed following the IPCC methodology. The 
largest stationary sources include HPSs and district boiler 
houses, 23 enterprises of the ferrous and nonferrous metal 
industry, 11 enterprises of the oil and gas industry, 8 
enterprises of the chemical industry, 5 of the largest 
machine-building plants, and 10 cement and asbestos plants (all 
together 105 enterprises). The emissions from other fuel 
consuming enterprises (i.e., food and light industries, 
municipal economy, agriculture and cattle-breeding) were also 
taken into account. The nonstationary sources such as 
internal-combustion engines on automobiles, locomotives, 
air-crafts and river-boats, on agricultural and constructional 
engineering were defined as separate sources. 
 
     The results of calculations of annual CO<2>, CH<4>, CO, N<2>O,  
NO, and nonmethane volatile compounds emissions are divided into 
13 groups:  
 
--  Heat power station and big boiler houses 
 
--  Fuel extraction, processing and transportation 
 
--  Ferrous and nonferrous metal industry 
 
--  Chemical industry 
 
--  Building materials production 
 
--  Mechanical engineering and electrotechnics 
 
--  Food and light industry 
 
--  Cattle-breeding 
 
--  Agriculture 
 
--  Nonstationary sources--internal-combustion engines 
 
--  Residential boiler-houses and stoves 
 
--  Landfills and wastewater treatment 
 
--  Solvents production 
 
Estimates of emissions of nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide 
and nonmethane volatile compounds were obtained from the records 
at the State Statistical Accounts. Emissions of carbon 
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have been determined by 
balance calculations taking into account real fuel consumption, 
quantity of cattle, rice area, and other data. The emission 
factors recommended by IPCC and regional institutes were used in 
the calculations. Values of specific GHG emissions of 
internal combustion engines were obtained from the Kazakh 
Scientific Research Institute of Motor Transport. 
 
     As a result, both the summary emissions of all six GHGs for 
1990 and the contribution of separate sources (or branches 
of industry) were defined. The calculation results are presented 
in Table 1. The results are expressed in gigagrams (Gg) 
in accordance with the IPCC. More than 90 percent of all 
GHG emissions is, as expected, from CO<2> (198,729 Gg or nearly 
200 million ton/yr). Thus the per capita CO<2> emission is over 
11 tons/yr. 
 
     CO<2> absorption from the atmosphere by forests of Kazakhstan 
was estimated. The calculations have shown that forests absorb 
up to 1,530 Gg/yr or less than 2.55 of the total emissions. 
 
     The largest sources of CO<2> emission are heat power stations 
and district boiler-houses (48.5 percent), residential 
boiler-houses and stoves (17.2 percent), internal combustion 
engines (ICE) (12.9 percent), and enterprises of ferrous and 
nonferrous metallurgy (5.2 percent). The largest sources of NO 
emission are ICEs (53.7 percent) and heat power stations (36.4 
percent). The largest sources of CH<4> emission are from solid 
waste open dumps and wastewater treatment (49.5 percent) and 
from agriculture (27 percent). The largest sources of CO 
emissions are ICEs (67.8 percent), metallurgy (18.3 percent), 
residential boiler-houses and stoves (3.2 percent). Data are 
presented in percentages of the total emissions of the 
respective gas. 
 
     In accordance with the IPCC guidelines, the estimation of 
the initial data reliability (uncertainty) was made. The 
most reliable are the data on heat power stations, which give 
49,5 percent of the total emission of CO<2>, 39 percent of the 
total emission of NO, and 19 percent of the total emission of 
CO. The data were obtained by the analyses of CO and NO 
contained in waste gases, and CO<2> was obtained by the balance 
calculations. The probabilistic errors here do not exceed 5 
percent. In other branches of industry the power registration 
data are not highly accurate so that possible errors are within 
the limits of 20 percent. The most unreliable calculation 
results are those connected with ICE (13 percent of CO<2> 
emission, 53.7 percent of NO emission and 67 percent of CO 
emission). 
 
     As for the estimation of the authenticity of the data, 
the comparison of our indices with the data reported by the 
State Statistical Committee showed that variations on separate 
gases were within the limits of 5-20 percent. For example, the 
total NO emission from stationary sources in 1990 was 330 Gg in 
the State Statistical Committee data but it was 314.7 Gg in 
our calculations. The emission indices for residential 
boiler-houses and stoves are the most unreliable, but these 
emissions are not high. 
 
     In Table 2 the predicted data of CO<2> emission for the period 
from 1991 to 2000 taking into account expert assessments and 
fuel consumption of main branches of economy are shown. These 
data show that the total CO<2> emission volume for the decade 
from Kazakhstan territory will be 1,582,000 Gg. At the same time 
CO<2> absorption by forests is estimated at 40,000 Gg. Thus, 
the difference (without consideration of CO<2> absorption by 
other reservoirs) will be 1,542,000 Gg. 
 
Mitigation 
 
The results of an evaluation of options to mitigate net 
emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy sector by the 
reconstruction and modernization of old HPSs, and the use of 
steam-gas cycles is presented. The decrease of specific fuel 
consumption from 350 g c.f./kWh (grammies conventional 
fuel/kWh)(on Rankine cycle) to 190 or 160 g c.f./kWh is achieved 
with electric power output by central heating. In addition the 
specific CO<2> emissions decrease by 480 g c.f./kWh. When 
additional electric power is produced by central heating cycle 
the decrease of CO<2> emission is estimated to be 25,872 Gg for 
1996-2020.  
 
     The Aktubinsk HPS building that will use a steam-gas cycle 
and produce 954 NW of power and 6 billion kWh annual electric 
power production will be completed in 2000. Similar powerplants 
with less capacity are expected to be put into operation in 
Uralsk and Atyrau (in 2000-2005). The problem of replacing 
traditional steam turbine engines with gas turbines in Uralsk 
HPS-1, Atyrau HPS, Shimkent HPS-1, HPS-2, Jambyl HPS-3, Jambyl 
state district electric power station (SDEPS) is being studied. 
When energy is produced by steam-gas HPSs the CO<2> emission will 
decrease by 11,988 Gg. The total decrease of CO<2> emission from 
energy sources is estimated at 37,860 Gg. 
 
     Concerning the use of renewable sources, the most 
promising project is the development of a wind-electrical 
station "Jungarskie vorota" with 300 megawatts power and 900 
billion kWh annual power production. In addition the 
wind-electric engines in the Chilick corridor, Kurday passage, 
Jengiz-To, Derjavinka, and Mugojary are projected to be put into 
operation. Also wind-electric engines with small capacity are 
planned for remote locations for water pumping, heating and 
electricity generation. The decrease of CO<2> emission associated 
with renewable energy options will be 4,627.2 Gg for 1996-2020. 
 
Vulnerability Assessment 
 
As a result of the above described approaches, "optimistic" (GFDL) 
and "pessimistic" (CCCM) scenarios under 2 x CO<2> conditions, were 
defined. GFDL-Transient outputs give an "intermediate" scenario. 
According to the GFDL model, a minimum increase of temperature is 
expected in summer, when most of territory will be 4-5oC warmer. The 
maximum (about 8oC) is expected to be in the winter. The mean annual 
temperature increase is about 5oC. According to CCCM, the mean 
annual temperature increase is 7oC and the maximum is of 12oC in 
the spring. In most cases, the relative changes of precipitation 
will be in the range of 0.8-1.2 or 80-120 percent (i.e., within 
the normal limits). 
 
     Our calculations based on the observed data in Kazakhstan 
show that the rise of annual average air temperature is 1oC/100 
years and this is approximately twice as much as the mean global 
rise of temperature. The analysis of prediction curves of 
temperature and precipitation with the use of the PFM model has 
allowed us to conclude that the rise of CO<2> concentration in the 
atmosphere will cause an average rise of aridness (the increase 
of temperature and decrease of precipitation) all over the 
region. The highest rise of temperature will be 6oC in 
comparison with the mean temperature for 1951-80. It is expected 
to occur in the cooler half of the year in the North of 
Kazakhstan. For the rest of the territory of the Republic, an 
increase in the temperature of 1-3oC in the summer and 3-4oC in 
the winter is expected by 2010. 
 
     There is a significant probability that the increase of 
CO<2> concentration may cause some increase in 
atmospheric precipitation in the south and southwest, and an 
increase of aridness in the west and in the northeast Kazakhstan 
in the winter. In the summer a decrease of precipitation of 
20-50 percent is expected for all of Kazakhstan, except for the 
western regions. 
 
Crops 
 
To estimate the possible impacts of climate change on 
wheat production in the main wheat producing regions of 
Kazakhstan, the DSSAT model was used. The DSSAT model combines 
the CERES-wheat crop growth model under GFDL and CCCM scenarios. 
The GFDL scenario shows the spring and winter wheat yield 
increasing in Western and Central Kazakhstan by approximately 10 
percent and 5 percent, respectively. However, in Northern 
Kazakhstan the yield decreases approximately by 12 percent. 
According to the CCCM scenario, the spring wheat yield would 
decrease by 35 percent and the winter yield would not decrease 
significantly. Note that the yields changes under the baseline 
scenario are about 2-4 percent. 
 
     The results of the preliminary analysis on the basis of our models 
of crops vulnerability made for Western Kazakhstan show that the 
increase of air temperature for the period of shoot ripening of spring 
wheat causes significant deterioration of the thermal regime by 
20-50 percent relative to optimal conditions. In this case the forecast 
crops yield is expected not to be above 0.22-0.44 ton/ha. In comparison 
the spring wheat yield was 0,82 ton/ha in 1991. 
 
Grasslands 
 
For the region located north of the Aral Sea the 
possible increase of air temperature in the vegetative season of 
2oC is accompanied by some increase in grassland productivity 
(6-20 percent). These increased temperatures may allow for a 
change in precipitation in the cool season of 30-40 mm resulting 
in changes in feed productivity ranging from -18 to + 12 
percent. A considerable decrease of productivity up to 40-50 
percent from existing level is estimated with temperature 
increases of 2 to 3oC. The possible climate changes due to a CO<2> 
doubling scenario (e.g., GFDL model) may cause a 2-3 times 
decrease in feed productivity on Priaralie grasslands in the 
summer-autumn period with some increase in its reserves in the 
spring. 
 
Potato 
 
The preliminary results on potato productivity were obtained 
for five North Kazakhstan regions. The calculations of dynamics 
of dry potato biomass during the vegetation season show 
the potential for considerable decrease of water storage in 
soil level. A 5mm decline in water levels would decrease 
productivity by 5-8 percent and a decrease of water storage of 
20 mm causes productivity losses of 20-26 percent. 
 
     Increasing the air temperature by 0.5oC decreases 
potato productivity by 2-3 percent. An increase of air 
temperature by 2oC causes a productivity decline by 6-10 
percent. 
 
Sheep-breeding 
 
In estimating vulnerability of sheep-breeding the data 
from observations of sheep pasture conditions for 1959-1990 
and biometeorological parameters defined earlier by other 
researchers were used. If the number of days in a ten day period 
with stable hot weather (SHW) equal 6 or more, a decrease of 
sheep weight is observed. Such unfavorable hot periods which 
repeat one after another and form a whole period with SHW are 
being currently observed in the South and East-South of 
Kazakhstan. An increase of air temperature of 1oC in May and 
June causes an increase of the average SHW duration of 3 to 6 
days. The SHW duration increases slightly less (by 2 to 4 days) 
with rising air temperature in August and September. If 
temperatures in both periods increase at the same time by 2o C, 
the average duration of SHW periods will increase by almost two 
weeks. Changes in atmospheric precipitation in the summer months 
do not significantly change the duration of the SHW period. 
 
Water Resources 
 
The preliminary results of the probable influence of 
climate change on the basis of the three GCM scenarios on water 
resources of managed river basins in Kazakhstan were obtained. 
Water resources runoff in the highlands of Kazakhstan increased 
by 6-12 percent in year 2030 under the CFDL-T scenario. However, 
the water resources runoff is reduced by 20-30 percent under 
2xCO<2> conditions occurring later in the century according to the 
CCCM and GFDL scenarios, respectively. 
 
Forestry 
 
Having analyzed the discrepancies obtained by the Holdridge 
(PET) model we have calculated the forest and forest-steppe 
zones in correspondence with the 2 x C0<2> climate conditions 
predicted by 4 models (GISS, UKMO, GFDL, OSU). The most 
pessimistic results were obtained using the UKMO model. 
According to this model only the northern part of the Republic 
(the stripe with the width of 70-150 km located along the 
Northern boundary) remains a forest-steppe zone. The area 
suitable for forest growth according to UKMO model is expected 
to be 15 percent of that for current climate. 
 
     According to 2xCO<2> OSU scenario, the forest area remains in 
its present-day boundaries. The area of forest-steppe zone 
according to the IET model is decreased along the Southern and 
Western boundary (50-70 km). 
 
     The most optimistic scenario of the forestry is 
obtained according to the climate change scenario based on the 
GISS model. It is the only one of four models which predicts the 
increase of suitable areas for the growth of the forests due to 
a probable climate warming. The boundary of steppe-forest-steppe 
is moved by 120-180 km towards the south and the west. According 
to this scenario the areas suitable for forests growth are 
increased 1.6-1.8 times. 
 
     The impacts of the scenarios of GFDL and the OSU scenarios 
are midway between the impacts of the GISS and the UKMO 
scenarios. 
 
                               DISCUSSION 
 
Conducting our work on the Kazakhstan Climate Change 
Study Project, we came across a number of uncertainties and 
problems. One of them is related to the assessment of future GHG 
emission in our country (Table). At the present time it is 
difficult to predict reliably the volume of GHG emissions for 
the period from 1991 to 2000. The state authorities in 
Kazakhstan have changed after the USSR was split up, 
specifically authorities such as the State Planning Committee 
have been dismantled. For 60 years from 1927, the planning and 
development of the national economy (in which the share of the 
private sector was minimal) was led by the government of the 
USSR in accordance with confirmed five- or seven-year plans. 
There are no such plans at the Departments and the role of 
private sector productive forces increases while that of 
state-owned sector decreases. As a result of that, it 
is impossible to receive any information from government 
offices. That is why we had to rely on expert evaluations. 
 
     The central problem with the mitigation analysis is the 
cost assessment of the mitigation options in view of the 
economical declines, especially production declines and 
inflation. It is a difficult challenge to predict the 
development of these processes now. 
 
     There are two principal sources of uncertainties in 
the vulnerability assessment. The first is associated 
with uncertainty of the climate change scenarios particularly at 
a regional level. It is known that increased greenhouse 
gas emissions will likely raise global temperatures 
and precipitation; however, no reliable suggestions can be made 
about their regional effect. 
 
     The second source of uncertainties arises from the 
imperfection of the models used in assessment of local 
conditions. The use of the DSSAT model demands input parameters 
which do not correspond to our data. For example, information 
about tillage, chemical composition of fertilization are not 
available. We often are limited in availability of current 
meteorological information for the input parameters of models. 
In this case we have to use the Weather Generators, which do not 
take into account the local climatic diversity of our regions. 
The DSSAT model is also oriented for local fields, while we need 
to obtain estimates for the whole Kazakhstan region.  
 
     Similar problems are connected with the use of the 
Holdridge model. In mountain regions the vertical zonality is 
formed, which is simulated poorly where the resolution of the 
database set (0.5*0.5 degrees) is small. Furthermore, such 
territories contain areas (especially hollows and canyons) which 
exist due to additional water-flow from the surrounding slopes. 
The result is that if the evapotranspiration exceeds the 
precipitation, the vegetation is still formed. Although this 
forest vegetation is of fragmentary character, the total area of 
these territories may be considerable. Neither the Holdridge 
model nor the PET model consider these specific conditions which 
cause errors in vegetation classification. 
 
     Both models fail to predict the pine forests propagation due 
to the fact that the ordinary pine is a drought-resistant 
species under the current conditions of Kazakhstan. It forms 
forests when the deficit of precipitation is 250mm or more. The 
ordinary pine grows under such conditions only on the sands with 
good aeration, developing powerful root systems, which can reach 
soil waters. The soil types are not considered in these models. 
 
     Therefore we tried to use the models worked out in KazNIGMI 
for the vulnerability assessment in agriculture and water 
resources sectors. But of course, the models we used have their 
own advantages and disadvantages. Advantages of these models 
are their good fitting for geographic, climate, and 
other peculiarities of the region of Kazakhstan and the use of 
observed data as inputs of model. The major disadvantage is that 
they first were made for near-term projections (month, 
season, timeframe) and then were modified for this 
vulnerability assessment. So we have to transform data from one 
time-scale averaging to another. This introduced additional 
uncertainties. 
 
                             CONCLUSIONS 
 
The main conclusions of this work are as follows: 
 
--  As a result of the inventory of GHG emission and sinks 
    the summary emission of all six GHGs for 1990 and the 
    contribution of separate sources (or branches of industry) were 
    defined. More than 90 percent of all GHG emissions by mass are 
    from CO<2>, 198,729 Gg or nearly 200 million ton/yr. Thus, more 
    than 11 tons of CO<2> are emitted on a per capita basis in 
    Kazakhstan every year. CO<2> absorption from the atmosphere by the 
    forests of Kazakhstan was estimated to be up to 1,530 Gg or less 
    than 2.5 percent of total emissions. The most authentic data are 
    the data for heat power stations, which give 49,5 percent of the 
    total emissions of CO<2>, 39 percent of the total emission of NO, 
    and 19 percent of the total emission of CO. The data were 
    obtained by the analyses of CO and NO contained in waste gases, 
    and the CO<2> estimates were obtained by balance calculations. 
    The probabilistic error here don't exceed 5 percent. 
 
--  The assessment of possible decreases of CO<2> emission in 
    the energy sector by the reconstruction and modernization of the 
    old HPSs and putting into operation steam-gas cycles as well 
    as replacing HPS by renewable resources was carried out. 
    Additional electric power production by central heating cycles 
    is liable to decrease CO<2> emissions by 25,872 Gg. Energy 
    production in steam gas HPSs is liable to decrease CO<2> emissions 
    by 11,988 Gg. The total possible decrease of CO<2> emission from 
    energy sources is 37,860 Gg for 1996-2020. The utilization of 
    the wind energy is apt to decrease CO<2> emissions by 4,627.2 Gg 
    for 1996-2020. 
 
--  Based on the observed data, the rise of mean 
    annual temperature in Kazakhstan for the period of 1891-1990 of 
    1oC is approximately twice the mean global increase. According 
    to the GCM scenarios (GFDL, CCCM, GFDL-T), the mean annual 
    temperature in Kazakhstan will increase by 5.0-6.9oC by the time 
    a doubling of CO<2> is observed. By 2010 there is expected to be 
    an increase of 2-3oC (CDFM scenario). Corresponding changes in 
    precipitation are less significant. 
 
--  The preliminary vulnerability assessments based on the 
    DSSAT model for 2xCO<2> conditions show that the spring and winter 
    wheat yields would decrease by 12 percent in Northern 
    Kazakhstan. But the crops model of KazNIGMI gives spring wheat 
    yields twice below those of 1991 if the warming is 2-3oC 
    compared with current climate. 
    The grasslands of Central Kazakhstan would decrease by 2-3 
    times under 2xCO<2> conditions. Potato productivity is decreased 
    by 6-10 percent if the warming will be 2oC. 
 
--  In the South and Southeast parts of the country, 
    the potential climate change will cause the decrease of sheep 
    weight and the expansion of areas where the heat-resistant 
    Strakhan sheep graze will move to the North. Zooclimatic 
    conditions in the semiarid zone of South Pribalkhashie will be 
    like the present conditions of South Kazakhstan where the 
    Strakhan sheep are being maintained. 
 
--  As for water resources, the vulnerability assessment 
    has been completed only for mountain basins. In these 
    regions Kazakhstan's water resources will not vary significantly 
    if climate is changed according to the GFDL Transient scenario 
    for doubling of CO<2> concentrations. The intermediate 
    CO<2> concentration levels associated with 2030 result in an 
    increase of water resources runoff of about 6-12 percent. In the 
    case of the CCCM and GFDL scenarios for a CO<2> doubling, it is 
    anticipated that the water resource runoff will decrease by 
    20-30 percent. 
 
--  For forests, the most pessimistic scenario is obtained 
    with the use of UKMO model. In accordance with this scenario 
    the extremely northern part of the Republic (the zone with a 
    width of 70-150 km along the north boundary) remains within 
    the forest-steppe zone. The forest boundaries are not changed if 
    the climate will be as the OSU model gives. The most 
    optimistic prediction for forestry is based on the GISS model. 
    It is the only scenario of the four variants which does not 
    simulate a restriction of the territory suitable for the forest 
    growth. Thus the preliminary estimation of the vulnerability 
    of Kazakhstan's resources have shown that the expected rise in 
    the temperature of Kazakhstan's climate following the increase 
    of GHG concentration in atmosphere will lead to unfortunate 
    results in many regions, although several of the results are 
    contradictory. Some of the reasons for this were noted earlier. 
    In this article, only the first part of our vulnerability and 
    adaptation assessment is being presented. Our preliminary 
    results need to be refined. An assessment of the economic 
    consequences and a series of recommendations for adaptation 
    measures for the agricultural, water, and forestry sectors to be 
    presented to the policymakers, will be prepared. 
 
 
REFERENCES 
 
Boer, G.J., N. McFarlane, and M. Lazare. 1991. 
Greenhouse gas-induced climatic change simulated with the 
CCC second-generation GCM. Accepted for publication in the J.Climate. 
 
Golubtsov, V.V., V.I. Lee, and T.P. Stroeva. 1989. 
Simulation of flow formation processes when information is limited. 
Proceedings of V All-Union hydrological symposium. 6. P. 
374-382.(in Russian). 
 
Gruza, G.V., and E.Ya. Rankova. 1991. Probabilistic forecast 
of global surface air temperature up 2005. Meteorol. Hydrolog., 
4, p. 95-103 (in Russian). 
 
Hansen, J., G. Rissell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, 
R. Ruedy, and L. Travis. 1983. Efficient three-dimensional global 
models for climate studies: models I and II., 
April Monthly Weather Review. III:609-662. 
 
Holdridge, L.R. 1967, Life Zone Ecology, Tropical Science 
Center, San Jose, Costa Rica. 
 
IPCC. 1993. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reporting 
Instructions, Final Draft, Vol.1. IPCC/OECD Joint Program. 
 
IPCC. 1993. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook, Final 
Draft, Vol.2. IPCC/OECD Joint Program. 
 
IPCC. 1993. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reference Manual, 
First Draft, Vol.3. IPCC/OECD Joint Program. 
 
Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald. 1987. Large-scale changes in 
soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide. April, 
Atmos. Sci., 44: 1211-1235. 
 
Pilifosova, O.V. 1992. Probabilistic of precipitation in 
the Kazakhstan - Middle Asia region. Proceeding of KazNIGMI, 
111: 64-72 p. (in Russian). 
 
Ritchie, J.T.., and S. Otter. 1985. Description and 
performance of CERES-Wheat: A User-oriented Wheat Yield Model. 
In: Willis W.O., ed. ARS Wheat Yield Project. Washington D.C.: 
US DOA, Agricultural Research Service. Ars-38. p. 159-175. 
 
Schlesinger, M.E., and Z.-C. Zhao. 1989. Seasonal climate 
changes induced by doubled CO<2> as simulated by the OSU 
atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean model. J.Climate. 
 
Wilson, C.A., and J.F.B. Mitchel. 1987. A doubled CO<2> 
climate sensitivity experiment with a global model including a 
simple ocean. Journal of Geophys. Res., 92:13315-13343. 
 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
                     Malawi: Greenhouse Gas Inventory 
               and Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability  
 
                      Francis X. Mkanda/1/ et al. 
 
/1/Department of National Parks and Wildlife 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
    SUMMARY: Malawi is one of the countries that have ratified 
    the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
    (UNFCCC). Under this Convention, parties to the Convention must 
    communicate to the Conference of the Parties (COP) their 
    national inventories of anthropogenic emissions of all 
    greenhouse gases by sources and sinks using comparative 
    methodologies. With financial assistance from the United States 
    Country Studies Program (U.S.CSP) to address climate change, 
    Malawi intends to develop a baseline for greenhouse gas data 
    suitable for scientific understanding of the relationship 
    between gas emissions and climate change. Additionally, Malawi 
    will assess the vulnerability of important sectors (water, 
    agriculture, and wildlife) to climate change impacts and 
    recommend adaptation and mitigation measures. This report 
    describes the four study elements of the country studies, i.e., 
    specific objectives and methodologies that will be employed. 
    Since this study has just been initiated, no results are 
    reported but a description of the use into which the 
    expected results will be put is given. 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
                                 INTRODUCTION 
 
Background 
 
There is a growing awareness that the increase in the amount 
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) being released into the atmosphere 
will have adverse effects on the global weather systems. The 
warming is not expected to be globally uniform but could 
differ significantly between geographical regions and vary 
between seasons (Ottichilo et al., 1991). According to the U.S. 
Country Studies Program Guidance Document (1994), the key 
natural resource sectors that might be susceptible to changes in 
climate include agricultural crops, livestock, forests, water 
resources, coastal resources, fisheries, and wildlife. African 
countries are more vulnerable than industrialized countries to 
the effects of climatic change for two reasons (Ominde and Juma, 
1991). First, the current economic and ecological crises have 
weakened the capacity of many countries to adjust to drastic 
economic and ecological changes. Second, most of the people 
depend on agriculture for their subsistence, and agriculture 
depends a great deal on climatic patterns. 
 
     According to Ominde and Juma (1991), global warming would 
induce changes in precipitation and wind patterns, changes in 
the frequency and intensity of storms, ecosystem stress and 
species loss, reduced availability of fresh water, and a rising 
global mean sea level. Although the actual impacts may not be 
easily predicted, changes in weather patterns may either lead to 
the prevalence of severe drought conditions or extreme flood 
events in Malawi. The existence of prolonged drought periods 
will seriously affect agricultural production on which Malawi 
heavily depends for the sustenance of her economy. Water for 
domestic consumption will also become scarce as experienced 
during the 1991-92 drought; the capacity to generate 
hydroelectric power will decline and lake transport services 
will also be seriously affected. On the other hand, very wet 
conditions will cause heavy floods with subsequent loss of life 
and property.  
 
     Malawi signed the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, and 
ratified the Convention in March 1994. Realizing further the 
importance of the environment, Malawi launched its National 
Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) in November 1994. 
 
     Under the UNFCCC, parties to the Convention must communicate 
to the Conference of the Parties (COP) their national 
inventories of anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gases 
by sources and sinks using comparative methodologies 
(Art.12.1(a)).  
 
     There has never been an inventory of GHGs in Malawi before. 
The potential impact of rising temperatures and changes in 
rainfall pattern is also unknown. Data are lacking on this 
subject therefore it was felt necessary to identify sources and 
sinks of GHGs and assess the vulnerability of various sectors to 
climate change impacts. 
 
Study Objectives 
 
The general objective of the study is to carry out an 
inventory of greenhouse gases emissions in Malawi and assess the 
impacts of climate change on the major socioeconomic sectors of 
Malawi. This study considered the following sectors (hereafter 
called study elements) important for vulnerability assessment: 
Water Resources, Wildlife, and Agriculture. There are several 
reasons for selecting these sectors as can be seen in the 
succeeding paragraphs. 
 
Emissions Inventory 
 
Malawi is largely an agricultural country, and it grows 
mostly tobacco, sugar, and maize, besides other crops. 
Livestock production is also an important industry that is 
growing. In addition there is noticeable industrial growth in 
major cities of Malawi. All these activities generate greenhouse 
gases. 
 
     Another source of GHGs is domestic woodfuel use. Malawi's 
energy source is mainly (95 percent) from woodfuel while only 3 
percent is hydroelectric power generation. The implication is 
that several hectares of forests are cleared every year to meet 
the daily energy needs. This results in an accelerated removal 
of sinks of GHGs, leaving the gases to concentrate in 
the atmosphere. Bush fires that occur annually in forests, 
national parks, and wildlife reserves are yet another source of 
GHGs. 
 
     In Malawi, GHGs also come from the biological process 
of decomposition, and emissions from motor vehicles. It has 
been documented that if wood is not stored properly, i.e., left 
to rot, it generates GHGs (e.g., CO and CH<4>). Of late there has 
been an increase in traffic volume, particularly in the urban 
areas of Malawi although the quantities of traffic emissions are 
unknown. 
 
     Malawi, like any other nation, realizes that her 
development activities are part of the worldwide concern over 
the increases of GHGs. However, information about the actual 
sources and quantities of the emissions is lacking, hence the 
inclusion of this element in the study. The country study will 
therefore develop a national inventory based on the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology and 
create a data base that will enable both scientists and 
administrators to understand and appreciate the importance of 
the problem. The specific objectives of this inventory are to:  
 
--  Develop baseline data suitable for scientific understanding 
    of GHGs emissions and their relationship to climate change  
 
--  Enhance Malawi's ability to monitor and report national 
    inventories of GHGs emissions and sinks 
 
--  Promote the exchange of information related to climate 
    change at national level to develop policy options and technology 
    choices suitable to mitigate GHGs sources and emissions 
 
Water Resources 
 
The necessity to study the impacts of climate change on both 
the quantity and quality of water resources cannot be 
overemphasized. Although Malawi may be considered generally rich 
in water resources, the distribution is not even. Therefore 
there is a pressing need to adopt sound and sustainable 
management practices of water resources to avert the threat 
posed by changes in climate. The specific objectives of this 
study element therefore are to assess the impacts of climate 
change on: 
 
--  The hydrology and water systems of Malawi with emphasis 
    on watersheds, catchment areas and major wetlands (lakes, 
    rivers, marshes) 
 
--  The management of surface and groundwater resources 
 
Vegetation affects the hydrological cycle of a region 
by influencing the processes of evapotranspiration and 
surface runoff. Ninety percent of Malawi's population is located 
in rural areas where among other things they depend on forests 
for fuel, household poles, fodder in the dry season, furniture, 
and other wood-based activities. Farming activities have further 
resulted into encroachment of these protected areas. According 
to Mkanda (1991), encroachment accounts for about 1 percent of 
land under national parks and wildlife reserves in Malawi. The 
net result is an estimated 1.6 percent annual permanent 
deforestation. It is necessary, therefore, to evaluate the 
potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems with 
particular emphasis on identifying plant species and communities 
that are sensitive to, or at risk from, climate change. This 
study element intends to provide baseline data for assessing 
changes in species composition, vegetation structure, and cover. 
 
Wildlife 
 
National Parks have universal values (McNeely, 1992). 
They maintain essential ecological processes that depend on 
natural ecosystems, and preserve species diversity and the 
genetic variation within them. National parks also maintain 
productive capacities of ecosystems; preserve historic and 
cultural features important to the traditional lifestyles and 
well-being of local peoples; safeguard habitats critical for the 
sustainable use of species; secure landscapes and wildlife that 
enrich human experience through their beauty; provide 
opportunities for community development, scientific research, 
education, training, recreation, and tourism; and serve as 
sources of national pride and human inspiration. Additionally, 
national parks are close to pristine environments, so they are 
considered as indicators of environmental quality. Therefore any 
impact of climate change may not only be easily noticeable in 
national parks but it would also seriously reduce the values of 
these areas. It is therefore important to study these areas to 
institute adaptation measures from a point of knowledge. So the 
specific objectives of this study element are to: 
 
--  Provide baseline information on the vulnerability 
of national parks and wildlife to impacts of climate change  
 
--  Recommend strategies to adapt impacts of climate change 
 
Agriculture 
 
Agriculture is the backbone of Malawi's economy providing 
for over 50 percent of the GNP. Malawi has not yet sustained 
food self-sufficiency; to the contrary, an underdeveloped 
subsistence livestock sector, and declining crop yield levels 
threaten the livelihood of the present population of eight 
million people and the availability of natural resources to 
future generations. 
 
     Crop and livestock production depend on rainfall as the sole 
source of water supply. Less than 5 percent of arable land is under 
irrigation, although Malawi is endowed with over 21 percent of its area 
as rivers, lakes, and marshes. In the last three decades, the country 
has experienced variability and unpredictability of seasonal rainfall. 
There have been three significant droughts (in 1978-79, 1981-82, and 
the worst one in the 1991-92 season), frequent and increasingly 
long dry spells, and erratic onset and cessation of rainfall. 
Tremendous variability means recurrent drought with increasing 
frequency as one moves to lower rainfall zones. Even with fair 
or excellent rainfall in those zones, no one would know when to 
expect which kind of season. Thus, the risk of failure of the 
more desired food crops and pasturage is high and unavoidable 
owing to the inability to predict. 
 
     It is envisaged that the anticipated global climate change 
will alter temperature and rainfall levels in some areas. 
These changes, with increased fluctuations, are expected to 
cause many shifts in food production. Most crops are sensitive 
to changes in climate conditions, including alterations in 
temperature, moisture, and carbon dioxide levels. Furthermore, 
major climate changes influence populations of beneficial 
organisms and pests and alter their effective roles in 
agricultural ecosystems.  
 
     Finally, in the last two decades, the shift towards production 
of cash crops, particularly tobacco, at the expense of 
subsistence food crops has pushed crop and animal production to 
marginal (rainfall) lands. Further, the rampant growing of the 
major staple cereal (maize), even in areas marginal for its 
production has exacerbated the food production problem and 
environmental and soil erosion problems. With the growing human 
population in Malawi, and general resource limitations in land, 
water, and energy, sound ecological technologies for resource 
use in agriculture are being sought and this study is a 
rational initiative. The specific objectives of this study 
element therefore are to:  
 
  Assess the past climate (temperature and rainfall) and 
its impact on crop and livestock production with emphasis on 
maize yields, feed resources, and pest attack as indicators of 
climate variation  
 
--  Estimate the potential impact of climate change on 
crop management 
 
--  Identify and evaluate potential alterations in 
agricultural practices that would lessen any adverse 
consequences of climate change 
 
The Malawi Country Study has not initiated field studies yet 
as it just received funding. Without results from field 
studies, this report will merely describe the approach that 
Malawi will use to accomplish this crucial study. It is worth 
mentioning at this point that very limited literature on 
approved methodologies was available at the time of formulating 
this project. Consequently, the proposed methodologies were developed  
based on the team's experience and expertise. Malawi hopes that 
various experts on this subject will review the proposed 
methodologies critically and provide their valuable guidance.  
 
                    A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF MALAWI 
 
Location and Topography 
 
Malawi lies in the southern half of Africa between latitude 
9o 22' and 17o 7'S, and between longitudes 32o 40' and 35o 55' 
E. The total area is 118,483 sq km of which 94,275 sq km is land 
and 24,208 sq km is water. Malawi is a landlocked country and 
it borders with Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zambia starting 
north going clockwise. 
 
     Geographically, Lake Malawi which is Africa's third largest 
and the world's eleventh, dominates the country. It measures 
about 550 km long by 15-80 km wide, and occupies a deep Rift 
Valley trough that cuts through the country along a north-south 
line. The lake surface elevation is about 474 m, and the deepest 
point is 230 m below sea level. 
 
     Lake Malawi and the Shire River are part of the Great 
African Rift Valley. On either side of the rift abrupt 
escarpments rise to the highlands that flank it. To the west the 
highlands include the Nyika (highest elevation 2,607 m), Viphya 
(2,058 m), and Dedza (2,198 m) plateaus. To the east they 
include the Shire highlands (1,774 m), Zomba plateau (2,087 m), 
and the Mangochi and Namizimu hills (1,796 m). The eastern 
highlands continue northwards into Mozambique, and Tanzania. 
Behind the rift edge highlands the land descends gently to the 
Central African Plateau at elevations around 1,000 m. Examples 
of this are the Lilongwe and Kasungu plains. The country's 
lowest elevation of about 37 m is on the Rift Valley floor at 
the extreme south, while Mulanje Mountain, an ancient volcanic 
plug standing on the plateau to the south east, is at 3,050 
m--the highest point in Central Africa. 
 
Climate 
 
Malawi's climate is greatly influenced by the lake and 
elevation. In essence there are three seasons: cool and dry, 
from May to August; warm and dry, from September to November; 
and warm and wet, from December to April. The annual rainfall 
ranges from about 600 to 3,000 mm, being generally greatest at 
higher elevations, and least in the Lower Shire Valley, and the 
Chitipa plain (Clarke, 1983). Temperatures approach, and may 
surpass, 40o C in the Rift Valley during October and November, 
while frost may be experienced on high ground during the cooler 
months. 
 
Soils and Vegetation 
 
There are four main soil groups (Moyo et al., 1993). The 
latosols are red to yellow, leached acid soils in which water 
movement within the profile is predominantly downwards. They 
occupy freely-drained sites, mainly on the gently-sloping plains 
but also in some steeply dissected hills. The calcimorphic soils 
are grey to greyish brown with a weak acid to weak alkaline 
reaction in which water movement is upward during at least part 
of the year. They occur on nearly-level depositional plains 
with imperfect drainage. The hydromorphic soils are black, grey 
or mottled and waterlogged for all or part of the year. The 
fourth group comprises lithosols that are shallow or stony soils 
and regosols that are immature soils developed from sand. 
 
     Malawi's has 19 biotic communities mappable at a scale 
of 1:1,000,000 (Shaxson, 1977). The vegetation is typical 
savanna woodland with Brachystegia as the dominant species. 
Malawi's national parks, wildlife reserves, and forest reserves 
cover approximately 21 percent of the land surface area. The 
national parks and wildlife reserves represent thirteen of the 
nineteen biotic communities. The aim of setting aside these 
areas is to preserve selected examples of Malawi's biotic 
communities and conserve watersheds/catchment areas (Clarke, 
1983). The different vegetation communities are a habitat to 
diverse wildlife; about 181 species of mammals, over 100 
reptiles, 56 amphibians, and 620 species of birds (Ansell, 1989; 
Sweeney, 1966; Stewart, 1967; Benson and Benson, 1977). 
 
Population and Economy 
 
Malawi has a population of about ten million with a growth 
rate of approximately 3 percent (Malawi Government, 1987). 
The resultant density of about 85/sq km makes Malawi one of the 
most densely populated countries in the sub-Saharan Africa. 
 
     About 90 percent of Malawi's population is rural and 
dependent on agriculture. Agriculture employs almost 85 percent 
of the labor force and accounts for about 43 percent of the 
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and nearly 90 percent of the export 
earnings. The income per capita GNP is estimated at US $230.00 
(Myers, 1994). 
 
                             METHODOLOGIES 
 
Greenhouse Gases Inventory 
 
The IPCC methodology will be applied to the following 
modules: Energy, Industrial processes, Solvent Use, Agriculture, 
Land-Use, and Wastes. These modules will cover a wide range of 
activities. 
 
     To begin with, the energy module will consider all 
the GHGs that are emitted from fuel combustion and fugitive 
fuel. Specifically, the following calculations will be made: GHG 
emissions from stationery sources (boilers and kilns), emissions 
from mobile sources, CO<2> from traditional biomass burning, and 
CH<4> from coal mining and handling. As to industrial processes, 
the main emphasis will be on CO<2> emanating form factories, e.g., 
cement manufacturing. The third module will concentrate on 
solvents that produce NO<2>, CO<2>, and volatile organic compounds, 
such as non-methane organic compounds from paint, thinners, and 
related material from printing activities and dry cleaning. On 
the other hand, emissions from agriculture will be inventoried 
to measure quantities of CH<4> in enteric fermentation and manure, 
flooded rice fields, N<2>O from soils, and CH<4>, CO, N<2>O from 
burning of agricultural residues. Lastly, the waste management 
module will give much consideration to the emissions of methane 
from landfills and waste water from municipals and industries. 
 
Water Resources 
 
Although Malawi may be considered to be generally rich in 
water resources, the distribution is not even. Hence there is 
a pressing need to adopt sound and sustainable management of 
water resources to avert threats of depletion and degradation 
posed by climate change. The study will be divided into three 
components that may run concurrently as: 
 
--  Development of baseline and climate change scenarios 
    using data from 1951 to 1980 with GCMs 
 
--  Collection of data on surface water resources 
    (i.e., streams, lakes, rivers, marshes), stream flows and 
    runoffs, surface water quality, and supplementary data 
 
--  Compilation of data on water balance using models for 
  rates of stream flow, runoff, and water quality 
 
Wildlife 
 
This study will evaluate the ecological integrity of wildlife 
and their habitats in two national parks under two climate 
scenarios. Sensitivity tests of the habitat under different 
temperature and rainfall regimes will be tested to come up with 
possible scenarios of climate change impacts on wildlife 
habitats. Finally, the study will correlate habitat and animal 
population data with climate data to assess potential impacts of 
climate change on the protected areas and their large mammal 
species. 
 
Study Site Selection 
 
Two national parks, i.e., Nyika and Lengwe, will be used as 
study sites. Nyika mostly lies on a plateau at a high elevation 
with low temperatures and high rainfall. In contrast, Lengwe 
National Park lies in the Lower Shire Valley (Southern Malawi) 
at an altitude of between 30 and 100 m above sea level 
approximately. The mean annual temperature is the highest and 
the rainfall is the lowest and most unreliable (600-700 mm) in 
Malawi (Shire Valley Agricultural Development Program, 1975).  
 
     In choosing these two sites, the study with cover two 
extreme climate conditions of Malawi. The availability of 
reasonable quantities of data from the two areas has also 
influenced site selection. 
 
Baseline Climate Data 
 
To help identify how changes in baseline conditions 
affect sensitivity of wildlife to climate change, precipitation 
and temperature data for the period 1961-90 for each site will 
be obtained from the Meteorological Department. The data will 
be entered into the habitat suitability index model.  
 
Climate Change Scenarios 
 
GCM outputs for 1 x CO<2> conditions for the Malawi region will 
be obtained from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric 
Research (NCAR). A comparison of the regional 1 x CO<2> output 
with the observed climate data will be made and the three GCMs 
that best reflect current climate will be selected. Using the 
selected GCMs, the study will create climate scenarios for the 
sites under 2 x CO<2> conditions. The resulting precipitation and 
temperature outputs will be used in the wildlife habitat 
suitability index analysis and the water and forestry elements 
of the Malawi Country Study. Desanker (in press) also presents 
useful precipitation and temperature data for selected sites in 
Malawi under CO<2> doubling. 
 
Habitat Suitability Analysis 
 
The Habitat Suitability Index model developed by the U.S. 
Fish and Wildlife Service will be used for each site to 
calculate habitat suitability indices for two ecologically and 
economically important species. Nyala (Tragelaphus angasi G) and 
Roan (Hippotragus equinus) antelopes will be chosen in the 
study. Nyala is the keystone species in Lengwe National Park 
which is the northernmost limit in Africa. On the other hand, 
the roan antelope which is listed on Appendix II of CITES 
(Convention in International Trade in Endangered Species of 
Flora and Fauna) is one of the most abundant ungulate in Nyika 
National Park. 
 
     First, the study will use the MIOMBO model developed by 
Desanker & Prentice (1994) to evaluate how the vegetation shifts in 
Malawi will occur under the generated climate scenarios. Using the 
HSI model for each climate, we will input the following habitat 
variables: water availability, prescribed burning regime, intensity of 
human influence, browse/grass availability, preference values of  
browse/graze species, importance values of preferred browse species, and 
vegetation cover. When using these variables, the study will 
assume that the other parameters are constant, e.g., soil 
nutrient, soil moisture, floristic richness, and intraspecific 
competition. 
 
     A sensitivity analysis will be conducted by exploring the 
effects of precipitation variability. The model will be run 
under different scenarios where just one variable at a time is 
varied. For example, in one set of runs, we would hold all 
variables but watering availability constant, and in one run try 
watering availability in a poor rain year. In another run the 
model will try a moderately poor rain year, then an average rain 
year, a moderately good rain year, and a final run in a very 
good rain year. In a second set of runs, we would assume the 
effects of variation in rainfall on a different variable, and 
hold water availability and the rest of the variables constant. 
 
Animal Population Vulnerability Assessment 
 
Animal population data will be collected for each 
species. Existing data on animal numbers and distribution will 
be consolidated and updated using aerial and ground 
census techniques. To exclude human influence (poaching of the 
key species for example) as a possible cause of any impact that 
the study might detect, the study will analyze the law 
enforcement effort data in these areas and assess its influence 
on animal species abundance and distribution. 
 
     Millsap et al. (1990) used biological vulnerability and state 
of knowledge to provide a logical ranking of all vertebrate taxa 
in Florida. In this study, however, we will only employ 
the biological variables which measure characteristics of 
population status or life history because the action variables 
become useful when ranking different species to set conservation 
priorities for each of them in an area. Those variables are as 
follows: population size, trend, range size, distribution 
trend, population concentration, reproductive potential for 
recovery, and ecological specialization. 
 
     A Population Viability Analysis (PVA) model developed by 
the Captive Breeding Specialist Group of the World Conservation 
Union will be used to evaluate the health of the nyala and 
roan populations under both the baseline and climate change 
scenarios. This analysis will help eliminate incorrect 
interpretation of genetic effects as climate change impacts. 
 
Relationship Between Habitat and Animal Populations 
 
The study will attempt to make correlations of the habitat 
and animal population data with meteorological data on 
ecologically and economically important large mammal species. 
The study will relate the animal population status data with the 
HSI analysis results generated from the precipitation and 
temperature data under the baseline and carbon dioxide doubling 
scenarios. This will help assess potential impacts of climate 
change on these two species. Any potential impact identified by 
the study will subsequently lead to selection of appropriate 
adaptation measures which are the ultimate outputs of the study. 
 
Agriculture 
 
The study will define the geographical boundaries of the 
major production regions of the country, and estimate the 
current production of major crops in those regions using 
observed crop data. It will also provide observed climate data 
for representative stations for the baseline period (1961-90), 
or for as many years of daily data as are available, and specify 
the soil, crop, and management inputs necessary to run crop 
models at the selected stations. Additionally, the study will 
use observed data of incidence, type, and magnitude of pest 
attack of major crops for as many years of seasonal data as 
available. 
 
     An analysis of time series of monthly and seasonal rainfall 
and temperature values (baseline climate data) will be made 
by running a simulation model (maize) to evaluate potential 
adaptive strategies using CERES-Maize Model and General 
Circulation Models (GCM) outputs. Observed climate and crop 
data, will be modified to determine climate change scenarios 
(determine and compare ten-year and long-term variability of 
historical and GCM output elements). Strategies for adapting to 
different climate change scenarios with or without the direct 
effects of CO<2> and other parameters will be recommended. 
 
                                   RESULTS 
 
No results can be reported yet as the study has just 
begun. Therefore this report can only describe the use to which 
the results will be put. All study elements have similar uses 
of results although some study elements were designed with 
specific benefits/uses in mind. The common benefits/uses are: 
 
--  Contribution to chapters on GHGs inventories 
    and vulnerability assessment 
 
--  Capacity building, expertise development, and 
    appropriate technology transfer 
 
--  Documented evidence on the sources and sinks of GHGs, 
    and the socioeconomic dimension and public understanding of 
    climatic change impacts on the water resources, forest 
    resources, wildlife resources, and agricultural productivity 
 
--  Baseline data on national inventories of GHGs and impact 
    of climate change on wildlife, water, forests, society, 
    and agro-climatic suitability classification of both crop plants 
    and livestock products. These data bases will be updated to 
    evaluate trends of climate change impacts on all the sectors and 
    the updates will be submitted to the Conference of Parties of 
    the Climate Convention 
 
--  Support for national policy and technological 
    options regarding GHGs emission levels. 
 
The benefits and uses that are specific to study elements 
include acquisition of climate change models (water); 
scientific publications in local and international journals 
(wildlife), and information dissemination through reports at 
local and international conferences, publications, and national 
workshops (agriculture). 
 
                             DISCUSSION 
 
This study would have included other important subjects such 
as mitigation and adaptation. However, limited funding 
has necessitated that only inventories of GHGs and 
vulnerability assessments be conducted. 
 
     To accomplish the Country Study effectively, 
different institutions (governmental, the University of Malawi, 
and Non-Governmental Organizations) with the necessary 
capabilities have pooled their human resources together for 
efficient coordination of the set procedures. The Department of 
Meteorology together with the Ministry of Research and 
Environmental Affairs (MOREA) are the management authorities on 
climate change issues in Malawi. Therefore, they comprise 
Malawi's delegation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change and the INC (Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee) 
under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.  
 
     To strengthen the existing infrastructure and 
ensure applicability of the existing climate information to the 
planning and management of socioeconomic and environmental 
programs, a National Climate Committee was formed under the 
former Department of Research and Environmental Affairs (DREA), 
now called MOREA. The same committee will develop and strengthen 
capabilities to forecast significant climate variations. MOREA 
is the coordinator of the project. They will be responsible for 
submission of quarterly technical and financial reports on 
behalf of the various study teams. The National Climate 
Committee mentioned earlier before will be responsible for 
monitoring the progress of all the activities of the project. 
 
     Although Malawi has local expertise to implement the 
different study elements, she realizes that there are some 
shortcomings such as lack of training and experience in this new 
field. Therefore, Malawi needs assistance to inventory its GHGs 
since it has no previous experience and expertise. Technical 
assistance in the form of training workshops will be required 
for the coordinator, lead and alternate contact persons. These 
will provide a hands-on experience on coordination, inventory, 
and vulnerability and adaptation assessments. The workshops will 
also be a source of resource material on models, reports, and 
other analytical tools necessary to accomplish the country 
study. 
 
     Technical assistance will also be required in the form 
of consultants and advisors who will pay field visits to those 
study elements that will find on-site assistance necessary. 
These visits will also be essential in providing guidance and 
review of progress made in the study. The technical assistance 
is crucial for sustainability of the project's activities. With 
the skills acquired during the training workshops and field 
visits by US experts, the Malawian counterparts can keep 
assessing future impact of climate change not only in the 
sectors included in this country study, but also in any other 
sector when the need arises. 
 
     To ensure timely implementation, Malawi has developed a framework 
within which to accomplish the study. Since Malawi has no experience in 
the type of study, a maximum period of two years is envisaged adequate. 
 
     Follow-up activities are essential to any study to ensure 
that there is continuity of activities. Therefore, Malawi 
envisages that the results of this country study will be 
incorporated in the various environmental management plans. The 
infrastructure and skills acquired will be useful in planning 
and management of future environmental projects. Some results of 
this study will be published in scientific publications in local 
and international journals, and local newspapers in both English 
and local languages to sensitize policymakers, the public, etc. 
Other activities will include holding a national workshop to 
discuss results of the country study. 
 
                                REFERENCES 
 
Ansell, W.H.F. (1989). Mammals of Malawi. Part II. 
Nyala 13, 1&2: 41-65. 
 
Benson, C.W. and Benson, C.M. (1977). The Birds of Malawi. 
Montfort Press, Blantyre. 263 pp. 
 
Clarke, J.E. (1983). Principal Master Plan for National Parks 
and Wildlife Management. DNPW, Lilongwe. pp 112. 
 
Desanker, P.V. and Prentice, I.C. (1994). MIOMBO - a vegetation 
dynamics model for the miombo woodlands of Zambezian Africa. 
Forest Ecology and Management 69: 87-95. 
 
McNeely, J.A. (1992). The contributions of protected areas 
to sustaining society. In Plenary Sessions and Symposium Papers. 
IVth World Congress on national parks and protected areas. IUCN. pp 1-6. 
 
Millsap, B.A. Gore J.A. Runde, D.E., and Cerulean, S.I. (1990). 
Setting Priorities for the Conservation of Fish and 
Wildlife Species in Florida. Wildl. Monogr. 111, 1-57.  
 
Mkanda, F. X. (1991). Possible solutions for the furtherance 
of positive public attitudes toward national parks and game 
reserves in Malawi. Nyala 15 (1): 25-37. 
 
Moyo, S. O'keefe, P. and Sill, M. (1993). The Southern 
African Environment; Profiles of the SADC Countries. 
Earthscan Publications Ltd., London. Ch. 4. 
 
Myers, N. (1994). Eco-refugees: a crisis in the making. 
People & the Planet, Vol. 3, 4: 6-9. 
 
Ominde, S.H. and Juma, C. (1991). Introduction. In A Change 
in the Weather; African Perspectives on Climatic Change. 
(S.H. Ominde and C. Juma eds.) pp 3-12. ACTS Press, Nairobi, Kenya. 
 
Ottichilo, W.K. Kinuthia, J.H. Ratego, P.O., and Nasubo, G. (1991). 
Weathering the Storm; Climate Change and Investment in Kenya, p 1. 
ACTS Press, Nairobi, Kenya. 
 
Price, M.F. (1991). Societal aspects of climate change. 
Society and Natural Resources Vol. 4: 315-317. 
 
Shaxson, T.F. (1977). A Map of the Distribution of Major 
Biotic Communities in Malawi. Soc. of Malawi J. (30): 35-48. 
 
Shire Valley Agricultural Development Program (1975) An Atlas 
of the Shire Valley, p. Blantyre: Department of Surveys. 
 
Stewart, M.M. (1967). Amphibians of Malawi. State University 
of New York Press, New York, USA. 
 
Sweeney, R.C.H. (1966). Animal Life in Malawi, Vol II, Vertebrates. 
Institute for the Publication of Textbooks, Belgrade, Yugoslavia, 
v + 212 pp. 
 
U.S. Country Studies Program (1994). Guidance for 
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Version 1.0. pp 2-1, 
Washington DC, U.S.A.  
 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
                        Mexico: Emission Inventory, 
                   Mitigation Scenarios, and Vulnerability 
                             and Adaptation 
 
                    Mexico Country Studies Project Team 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
    SUMMARY:  Mexico's Country Study comprises analyses in three major 
    areas: Inventory of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases; Scenarios, both 
    physical and of emissions of GHG; and a Study of Vulnerability of 
    the Country to Global Climate Change. 
       The project intends to provide support and information to 
    policymakers so that strategies can be redirected to face the 
    effects of Climate Change. These analyses are intended to show the 
    possible impacts on different productive activities and resources, 
    and the new alternatives and challenges that Mexico's development 
    will confront with respect to their corresponding emissions of GHG. 
       In the area of inventories, it was found that Mexico emits about 
    85.4 x 10 to the sixth power MTC (metric tons) of carbon due to 
    burning of fossil fuels. The methane emissions coming from urban 
    waste disposal sites amount to 385.9 x 10 to the third power MT per 
    year. Methane from agriculture and livestock amounts to 35,000 MT 
    and 1.804 x ten to the sixth power MT respectively, showing a very 
    small contribution due to rice cultivation. The contribution to the 
    emissions due to land use change varies from 49 to 129.3 million 
    tones  of CO<2> depending on the use of a low or high rate of 
    deforestation. The estimations for fugitive emissions of methane 
    from the oil industry vary from 435 x 10 to the fifth power MT to 
    1.07 x 10 to the sixth power MT, depending on the use of low and 
    high emissions factors, respectively. 
       In the area of physical scenarios, different GCMs have been used 
    to produce maps of temperature and precipitation under the 
    assumption of CO<2> doubling. An effort is being made to obtain 
    results for regional scenarios using GCMs. 
       In the area of emission scenarios, several numerical experiments 
    have been carried out using "bottom up" and "top down" models and 
    future projections of land use change. Even when structural changes 
    are introduced in the energy sector, all the possibile and probable 
    scenarios lead to an increase in the consumption of energy and an 
    increase in the emissions of GHG. This result is mainly due to a 
    certain inertia in the economic structure. The increase in emissions 
    of GHG is due to the assumption of continuous growth of the 
    industrial, agricultural, and economic activity of the country. 
________________________________________________________________________ 
 
                              INTRODUCTION 
 
Mexico has followed a tradition of active participation 
in international forums in which topics related to the 
environment and the climate are discussed. For several years, it 
has made efforts to coordinate studies aimed at understanding 
the causes of environmental problems, particularly those related 
to global climatic changes and their possible societal impact, 
in order to be better prepared to cope with them in the future. 
 
     These organizational efforts have contributed to 
increase Mexico's participation in international symposiums. 
However, we have had difficulties, especially related to 
financial support. Because of these financial constraints, the 
U.S. Country Studies Program was welcomed with enthusiasm, and 
Mexico presented the project titled "Country Study: Mexico," 
which was later approved. 
 
     This project represents an ambitious plan whose objective is to 
understand what impact climate changes may have on human activities and 
to provide the basis for the delineation of national strategies, which 
must integrate economic issues with climate-environmental policies. 
 
The project's main objectives are: 
 
--  To provide the Mexican government with a solid basis for 
    the elaboration of strategies and policies in response to the 
    impacts of climate changes. The socioeconomic implications of 
    these changes will be analyzed. 
 
--  To provide the Mexican government with an ample base for 
    the adoption of measures related to adaptation and mitigation. 
 
--  To establish a foundation to be updated to meet 
    the commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate 
    Change. 
 
--  To assist the government in the adoption of 
    measures intended to restore the environment, in the 
    understanding that what is good for the environment now, is good 
    for the protection of the atmosphere and the climate. 
 
--  To provide technical support. This facilitates the 
    Mexican government participation in international forums, such 
    the conferences organized by the Intergovernmental Panel on 
    Climate Change, the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, and 
    other international organizations such as the Interamerican 
    Institute on Climate Change. 
 
The project focuses on three major areas: 
 
--  The preparation of an inventory of greenhouse gases. 
    This work will include accounting of sources and sinks. 
    Special attention will be given to reforestation as a mitigating 
    action. 
 
--  Development of climate change scenarios at a global, regional, 
    and local level, as well as scenarios for the emission of 
    greenhouse gases. This area of study will also include the 
    study of the economic implications of different technology 
    and policy options. 
 
--  The enhancement of previous studies of the country's 
    vulnerability to climate change in certain key areas. 
    The present document describes in a general way the results 
    obtained for the different areas of the study. 
 
 
                              INVENTORIES 
 
The amount of CO<2> released to the atmosphere via consumption 
of fossil fuels by industry and by the energy production 
process depends on the quantity of fuel that is consumed and on 
the actual carbon content of the fuel consumed. The Rio de 
Janeiro Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates that 
each country must develop national strategies for the reduction 
of CO<2> emissions and that these strategies must be based on 
precise knowledge of the country's emission inventory. 
 
Data necessary to determine CO<2> emissions include: 
 
--  Apparent consumption of fossil fuels by type of fuel 
 
--  Average coefficient of carbon emission for each fuel, 
    and total carbon potentially emitted 
 
--  Carbon sequestered for long periods of time in 
    nonenergetic products 
 
--  Quantity of nonoxidized carbon 
 
--  Other activities which generate CO<2> 
 
     In order to estimate CO<2> emissions, we used national 
emission factors along with the OECD/IPCC methodology, and 
production and consumption data from the National Energy Balance 
for 1990. The estimate of carbon emission comes from a mass 
evaluation where: According to the OECD/IPCC methodology (IPVV, 
1995), energy produced by the combustion of firewood and bagasse 
must not be included in these estimates. Because of this, the 
values for CO<2> emissions will have to be subtracted from the 
final figures. 
 
     Based on the National Energy Balances, the energy 
sector in Mexico produces 93,251,375.4 Metric Tons of Carbon, 
equivalent to: 341,921,658.7 Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide. The 
cement industry accounts for 13,420,290 Metric Tons of Carbon 
Dioxide. Total emissions are 96,911,079.4 Metric Tons of 
Carbon, equivalent to 355,341,448.7 Metric Tons of Carbon 
Dioxide. Subtracting CO<2> originating from the combustion of 
firewood and bagasse, we are left with a total of 85,368,695.2 
Metric Tons of Carbon and 313,018,540 Metric Tons of Carbon 
Dioxide. 
 
                          METHANE EMISSIONS 
                        IN SANITARY LANDFILLS 
 
The results are obtained by processing information on 
the characteristics of different types of waste by region, in 
order to determine the quantities of methane generated at each 
of these sources. The difference between the regions is small, 
with the exception of the Metropolitan Zone of Mexico City 
(Federal District), which exhibits a larger difference. This 
fact enables us, as a first approximation, to divide the country 
into two regions: the Federal District and the rest of the 
country. 
 
     The figures for the methane emissions by ton of waste 
are computed for the Federal District and for the rest of the 
country as an average of the four remaining regions. With these 
values in hand, we were able to estimate total methane emissions 
at 385,900 tons per year. 
 
                METHANE EMISSIONS ORIGINATING FROM 
                 LIVESTOCK'S ENTERIC FERMENTATION 
                AND WASTE, AND FROM THE CULTIVATION 
                         OF RICE FOR 1990 
 
In order to estimate methane emissions from livestock waste 
and enteric fermentation and from rice cultivation for 1990, 
we followed the methodology proposed by IPCC (1993). We based 
our calculation on information obtained on the existence of 
livestock by climatic region and on the corresponding emission 
factors. Due to the shortage of information, we set out working 
hypotheses, such as for a given percentage of surface area in a 
particular climate for a particular state, there corresponds 
certain number of livestock. Furthermore, bovine cattle waste 
emission factors were estimated from a functional relationship 
between the ingested energy for each animal and its body mass 
(both factors were established on the basis of a large wealth of 
data for developing countries that the IPCC has published). The 
emission factors, both for waste and enteric fermentation, were 
taken from IPCC manuals. As for methane emissions from rice 
cultivation, we based our calculations on information related to 
number of hectares cultivated with irrigation and on flooding 
conditions and corresponding to cultivation periods. 
 
 
Emissions Originating from Change of Soil Usage 
 
The first point to be noted is that some classifications of 
the types of vegetation in Mexico had to be modified due to the 
fact that these do not agree with the ones put forth in 
the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate 
Change (IPCC, 1993). We suggest that temperate forests should 
include the following types of vegetation: latifoliated, 
coniferous, coniferous-latifoliated, and mesophyll forest. 
Similarly, tropical forests are classified as high, medium, and 
low. Open forests encompass natural protected areas and degraded 
forests including managed and unmanaged forests. Since there is 
no information in Mexico on undisturbed and logged forests, 
we assume that the protected areas belong to the open 
forest category and all the rest to the logged forests 
category depending upon each subtype of vegetation. 
 
     The forested surface areas in Mexico were categorized by 
State, ecosystem, and type of vegetation, based on data from 
the National Forest Inventory of Great Vision of 1992, published 
by the Department of Agriculture and Hydraulic Resources. 
 
     The real forested area for 1990 was equivalent to 133,740 Kha. 
On the basis of this fact, the surface area was delineated by 
type and subtype of vegetation according to its management. It 
should be noted that the forested area that is in very damaged 
condition totals 3,548 Kha. These areas are not taken into 
account since they cannot be recovered. 
 
     In order to estimate emissions from the submodule "felling 
of forests--CO<2> release originating from biomass burning, in situ 
and outside," we took into account high and low deforestation 
rates. In 1990 a total of 370,000 ha. were deforested, observing 
a greater cutting for tropical forests than for forests and 
arid zones. The present study works with a high rate of 
deforestation, and arrives to a total estimate of 767,186 ha. It 
should also be noted that there are other reports in which 
higher deforestation rates are mentioned. Toledo (1989) 
estimates an annual deforestation rate of 1,500,000 ha. 
 
     Mexico, however, lacks detailed information on the total 
biomass area for the different types of vegetation. Estimates 
are computed based on commercial biomass inventories, using 
expansion factors. If we estimate the biomass area by type of 
forest prior to deforestation, the biomass values--after 
deforestation--would be the ones put forth by IPCC. After 
deforestation, the biomass depends critically on the type of use 
given to the deforested area. For example, tropical forests are 
more affected because of extensive cattle rearing, whereas fires 
are the most important cause of deforestation in temperate 
forests. 
 
     If we use a low deforestation rate, our estimate for 
carbon release equals 13,365 Gg and 49,005 Gg of CO<2>. If we use 
a high rate, our estimate would equal 35,260 Gg of Carbon and 
129,290 Gg of CO<2>. The aforementioned results are preliminary 
since we are currently working on generating our own data for 
the portion of burned biomass, for combustion efficiency, and 
for carbon content in the burned biomass. 
 
                   PETROLEUM INDUSTRY EMISSIONS 
 
In order to estimate emissions from the petroleum industry, 
we used the IPCC methodology to calculate fugitive methane 
emissions from natural gas and petroleum systems (IPCC, 1993a). 
"Tier 1" is the first level of detail used for the estimation of 
these emissions. We use average emission factors based on 
production. The activity levels were obtained from the National 
Energy Balance for 1990 (National Energy Balance, 1991). Emission 
factors appear in the reference manuals for the different regions. 
 
     In the case of Mexico, the greatest uncertainty in terms 
of methodology is its regional definition. Mexico is classified 
as an "Other Petroleum Exporting Country," since it 
consumes approximately 94 percent of the natural gas produced 
globally. After consulting with the technical advisors from the 
firm ICF, it was decided to classify Mexico as member of "Rest 
of the World Region." The emission factors can be found under 
this category on Table 1-47 of the Reference Manual. The methane 
emission estimates, for high and low emission coefficients, are 
435 and 1069Gg, respectively. 
 
     The National Energy Balance reports a total gas production 
of 1640PJ and a total consumption of 1555PJ, including 
internal consumption within the petroleum industry. The 
difference of 85PJ is equivalent to 1703Gg of natural gas. 
Considering that methane represents 50 percent of the weight of 
the Mexican natural gas, the aforementioned 85PJ would be 
equivalent to 851Gg of methane. This quantity is energy not used 
and lost in transformations and ventings, and represents by 
itself a very small quantity of methane emissions from the 
petroleum industry. The high emission estimates are considered 
as the most representative of the "Tier 1" of the methodology. 
According to "Tier 1," the main sources of fugitive emissions 
are venting and flaring, originating from petroleum and natural 
gas production, from emissions in the processing, transportation 
and distribution of natural gas, and from leakages in industrial 
and powerplants. On the other hand, emissions which resulting 
from the transportation, storage, and refining of crude 
petroleum, from maintenance of production facilities for oil and 
gas, and from leakages in the commercial and industrial sectors, 
are considered marginal. 
 
                               SCENARIOS 
 
Physical Scenarios 
 
The only objective way to build future climatic scenarios for 
the study of the impacts of Global Climate Change on human 
activities is by using simulation models. The General 
Circulation Models or GCMs are the best in this area. The 
working criteria adopted was the use of simulations generated 
under the assumption that carbon dioxide is doubled. This event 
will occur sometime in the future depending upon the intensity 
of anthropogenic emissions of gases which have a greenhouse 
effect. 
 
     In order to create future scenarios, we used the methodology 
put forward by the IPCC and discussed in "U.S. Country 
Studies Program's Training Workshop on Vulnerability and 
Adaptation Assessments" in Washington D.C., in February of 1994. 
 
     This process consists of adding the temperature increments 
given by the models, to the climate conditions of the places or 
regions to be studied. For the central region of Mexico, we used 
the predictions of GFDLR30 and of the Canadian Climate Model. 
And, by way of comparison, we have also used the thermodynamic 
climate model developed by the Center for Atmospheric Sciences 
of the University of Mexico. 
 
RESULTS 
 
For base scenarios, we used average temperatures and precipitation 
data of 23 points, scattered in a grid of 2.5 x 2.5o. These data are 
monthly averages taken from a record extending over 30 years 
(1941 to 1970). 
 
     For future scenarios, we operated with the GRIDS package 
(Kentery Dotty, 1994) and, by either interpolation or use of the 
nearest data point provided by the GCM, we arrived at estimates 
of temperature and precipitation increments for the 23 
locations. This material was presented in a technical report No. 
1 in the form of tables, maps, and diskettes. 
 
     With the intention of validating the models, we proceeded 
to compare its simulations for 1 x CO<2> with the climate 
values obtained and, in so doing, we observed important 
differences when the comparisons were conducted site by site. 
The comparisons were also conducted by taking averages of points 
contained in latitude bands. This comparison was more favorable 
and enabled us to affirm that for the northern region the 
results were similar for the three models employed. Although the 
magnitudes are different for the central and southern regions, 
the GFDL model reproduces better the seasonal changes. It should 
be noted that temperature compared to precipitation exhibits 
greater cohesion--the GFDL model predicts greater precipitation 
for an extensive region centered in the middle portion of 
Mexico, while CCCM forecasts exactly the opposite.  
 
     Due to the fact that the distance between the grid points of 
the models is several hundreds of kilometers (approximately 400 
kms), the regional characteristics are not reproduced. In order 
to solve this problem, we are in the process of studying 
the adjustments needed to obtain simulations at a regional and 
even local level, either by nesting regional climate models into 
GCMs or by regionalizing GCM simulations with empirical 
formulations. 
 
                         BOTTOM UP SCENARIOS 
 
In a recent study, Sathaye and Ketoff (1991) found that 
Mexico, in 1987, was the third largest carbon emitter by 
production and energy use in the developing world, after India 
and China. Between 1987 and 1991, the production of primary 
energy grew by 4 percent while the contribution from fossil 
fuels remained stable at around 92 percent (SEMIP, 1992), a fact 
that suggests that carbon emissions have been increasing. 
 
     The methodology for "bottom up" or end-use analysis focuses 
on energy conservation. This analysis is put forward as 
an alternative to the traditional approach which employs 
Gross Domestic Product, income, and price as economic variables 
which explain the demand for energy. 
 
     This approach steers the analysis toward the demand for 
energy and not toward its aggregate supply. Energy consumption 
is disaggregated for the different sectors, and sums 
different end-uses from each sector. This procedure incorporates 
structural demands as explicit elements and allows for the 
accounting of energy needs in relation to physical and economic 
activities. 
 
     For the elaboration of future energy consumption scenarios 
and for the quantitative analysis of atmospheric emissions, 
different models have been developed--most notably, the STAIR model. 
This model, the name of which is formed by the five sectors which 
consume energy: services, transportation, agricultural, industrial, 
and residential, is basically an accounting framework based on the 
methodology by end uses. It makes possible the study of impacts of 
different energy policies on the use of energy as well as in the 
emissions of greenhouse gases (Ketoff, Sathaye, 1991). 
 
Available Data 
 
Information on energy supply, transformation, and demand 
for Mexico is to be found in the energy balances (1965-90) of 
the Secretary of Mines, Energy and Semi-State Industry (SEMIP), 
and in the reports from OLADE (Latin American Energy 
Organization). Additional information may be found in the 
records of PEMEX, of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), 
and in the publications from the National Institute for 
Statistics, Geography and Data Processing (INEGI) on economic 
indicators and population census. 
 
     Emission factors represent the average behavior of a similar set 
of technologies and may fluctuate according to: type of fuel, 
technology, how old the technology in question is, and the conditions 
under which it is operated and maintained. 
 
Scenarios of Social and Economic Development  
 
Three different scenarios were elaborated for the period 
from 1990 to 2025. Gross Domestic Product was assumed to grow at 
an average annual rate of 4 percent, population at 1.8 percent. 
The energy consumption structures remaining stable for each 
sector, as well as the emission factors. 
 
     In scenario A, a society that wastes its natural resources 
is portrayed, corresponding with the current national trend. By 
the year 2025, a per capita annual consumption of 350GJ would 
have been reached, equivalent to the consumption of the United 
States in 1982. 
 
     In scenario B, a society that aims at conserving its resources 
is depicted, in correspondence with the intentions of the 
current energy policy. By the year 2025, a per capita annual 
consumption of 200GJ would have been reached, equal to the 
consumption exhibited by Germany in 1982. 
 
     In scenario C, a society which has sustainable growth is 
reached, requiring changes in the social and industrial 
structure, as well as giving special attention to the 
environment. By the year 2025 a per capita annual consumption of 
100GJ would have been reached, slightly lower than that of Japan 
in 1982. 
 
RESULTS 
 
For the transportation sector, the results obtained show 
that gasoline is the main producer of CO<2>, followed by 
diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, and LP gas. The increase of 
emissions follows the pattern for fuel consumption. Demand for 
gasoline grows exponentially, but demand for diesel throughout 
the last decade stays the same, while for other fuels it is 
almost insignificant. As to the industrial sector, NO appears 
as the main contaminant, followed by SO, particles, HC and CO. 
The amounts of NO, SO and HC emitted has increased 
consistently in the last 25 years, whereas the quantity of 
particulates and CO emitted has remained constant, by energy 
unit consumed by inhabitant. The fuel consumption pattern 
associated with this emissions evolution implies that the demand 
for petroleum products and natural gas has increased, while for 
bagasse and coke it has remained constant. 
 
                         TOP DOWN SCENARIOS 
 
Projects For Energy Demand 
 
Projections for energy demand for economic sectors and 
subsectors and by fuels are being elaborated based on an energy 
demand model developed in Mexico. The results obtained to date 
are preliminary, and we expect that in the following months 
other preliminary results may be discussed for the areas 
of environmental impact, technology, active measures, and 
problems encountered for the efficient use of technology. 
 
The main environmental problems (local and global) originating from 
the energy system come from the great dependence on hydrocarbons, 
carbon, and wood burning; from the characteristics of refined crude 
oil, 31 percent of which is heavy crude, with an average of 3.3 percent 
sulphur content; from the great urban agglomerations which are still 
growing, headed by the metropolitan area of Mexico City (and whose 
transportation system is insufficient); from the absence of 
norms for the control of emissions from the energy sector, 
transportation, and the industry in general; and from the 
insufficient use of energy. 
 
Energy Demand Model 
 
The objective of this model is to simulate primary energy 
demand for Mexico. It is a "top-down" model, where the 
exogenous parameters are economic (GDP) and demographic 
(population growth). The economy is subdivided in sectors and 
subsectors, in analysis of historical tendencies for individual 
participation in energy consumption by source--fuel and 
electricity--and by nature of the emission--gas combustion, 
hydrocarbons, and particles. In this way, one may project the 
tendencies for individual sector or subsectors and for fuels, 
and one may resort to alternative analyses for estimating the impact 
of different energy policies and corresponding environmental problems 
(prices, conservation, change of fuels, etc.) 
 
Results 
 
Some of the main results show that there is a certain inertia 
in the economic structure and in the demand for energy, even 
with the adoption of policies that aim at introducing 
structural reforms. Under the first scenario, the energy sector, 
together with the electrical subsector (CFE), exhibit growth; 
however, in the high growth scenario, PEMEX exhibits similar 
increments. It is very important to note that the reference 
scenario works with a GDP growth rate of 5 percent and that 
energy intensity is residential. 
 
     However, there are substantial changes within subsectors of 
a particular sector. In the industrial sector, the participation 
of basic petrochemicals will increase by 50 percent by the year 
2000 and will triple by the year 2010. The chemical industry 
will also grow, doubling its participation by the year 2010, 
just like that of fertilizers, which, in addition, will 
quadruple by the year 2020. 
 
     The total energy consumption increases by 38 percent over 
the current level by the year 2000, by 100 percent by the year 
2010, and by 500 percent by the year 2024. This implies an 
annual growth of 3.8 percent for the whole period: in the 
short term--until year 2000--the growth would equal 4.4 
percent, decreasing thereafter. The corresponding quantities for 
GNP are 31, 85, and 421 percent, respectively. The tendencies 
shown are on the increase for energy intensity. 
 
     The scenario without changes (business-as-usual) works with a 
GDP growth rate of 3.5 percent and with constant energy 
intensity. The results show that total energy demand will 
increase from 1,499 x 10 to the 12 power Kcal in 1992 to 
3,124 x 10 to the 12 power in 2010, which would imply an annual 
growth rate of 4.1 percent. The generation of nuclear electricity 
(CFE)--geothermic and hydro--will not increase as projected 
(66 percent by the year 2000). So part of the electricity assigned 
to this area, will in due course be generated by fossil fuels; 
environmental problems will favor the use of natural gas. Nuclear 
installed capacity will grow to 1,300MW by next year. CFE plans  
contemplates an increase in generating capacity of 25 percent in geo 
and thermal power and 38 percent in hydro power by the year 2000. 
 
     In low-growth-rate scenarios, with a GDP growth rate of 
2.0 percent and with constant energy intensity, we find 
the following: total energy demand goes from 
1,461 x 10 to the 12 power Kcal in 1992 to 
2,385 x 10 to the 12 power Kcal in 2010, a fact that implies an 
annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. 
 
               SCENARIOS FROM CHANGE IN SOIL USAGE 
 
Carbon Absorption and Emissions in Mexico's Forests The research 
was conducted by a working group, in coordination with the work 
groups for the areas of inventories and vulnerability. We have 
revised the methodologies used for scenarios of gas emission 
from the forested sector. Other possible scenarios to be 
developed were identified. The study has proceeded with the 
elaboration of a reference scenario and with the preliminary 
preparation of the databases. 
 
     To the date, we obtained the following results: a 
bibliographic base with more than 80 files, sorted 
alphabetically and by topic (the same which is available at the 
Ecological Center of the UNAM); the publication of an article in 
the foremost Country Study Workshop; and the improvement of a 
data base with basic biophysical parameters for carbon emission 
and sequestration due to deforestation, using the model CO-PATH. 
This data base, includes estimation of gross, net, immediate, 
and long-term carbon emissions for the four types of closed 
forests in the country: temperate coniferous forests, oak 
forests, humid, and dry tropical forests. We also include 
biophysical and economic parameters for the options of carbon 
absorption for the conservation options for protected natural 
areas, forests, and native tropical forests management. 
 
     The analysis also addresses efficient use of 
firewood, agroforestry, and commercial and noncommercial 
reforestation plantations (including bioenergy projects). We 
initiated the elaboration of a data base, for the calculation of 
future scenarios for carbon emissions and absorption. The data 
base includes basic parameters on forest management and 
emissions by type of forest (taken from the previous data bases) 
and combines them with estimates for the evolution of the 
population, of the GDP, forest products demand and other 
estimate factors. 
 
     In order to design basic parameters for the reference 
alternative scenarios, we consulted with experts responsible for 
the areas of inventories and vulnerability. In the specific case 
of the forested sector, we put forth a reference scenario or a 
scenario of tendencies which would incorporate long-term 
emissions resulting from a continuation of historical 
deforestation rates (1980-1990). 
 
     Two policy scenarios--moderate and accelerated--will also 
be developed. Using 1990 as the base year, the projections will 
be provided for years 2025 and 2100. 
 
                             REFERENCES 
 
Inventories 
 
Estimation of Greenhouse Emissions and Sinks. Final Report 
from the OECD Experts Meeting, 18-21 February, 1991. 
 
National Energy Balance, 1990-1991, SEMIP. 
 
Preliminary Inventory of Greenhouse Effect Gases for Mexico, 1988. 
INE/SEDESOL. Note: includes software developed in FORTRAN 
for the elaboration of the inventory. 
 
"XI GENERAL POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS, 1990"; 
National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Data Processing; 
INEGI, July of 1990, Mexico. 
 
"Percentage Composition of Municipal Solid Residues by Zones"; 
General Directorship for the Control and Prevention 
of Environmental Contamination, Operation directorship, SEDUE, 1988. 
 
"Generation of Solid Residues by Zone", General Directorship 
for the Control and Prevention of Environmental Contamination, 
Operation directorship, SEDUE, 1988. 
 
"Executive Summary on Technical Viability for Usage of 
Biogas Generated in the Final Disposal Sites for Municipal 
Solid Residues in the Federal District"; General Secretary for 
Public Works; General Directorship of Urban Services, 
Technical Directorship of Solid Waste; DDF, October 1990, 
Mexico, Fed. District. 
 
IEE/10/14/3128/i/03/P. " Laboratory Tests of the Samples 
Obtained in the Probing of the Santa Cruz Meyehualco and Santa 
Fe sites", "Evaluation of the Feasibility for Generation of 
Electricity with Biogas from the Landfills of Urban Solid 
Waste": IIE, A.P. 475, Cuernava, Mor. Mexico, October 1991. 
 
"Methane Emissions Inventory by Agricultural Activities in Mexico"; 
Gonzalez Avalos, E., Ruiz, L.G., Gay, C.: in Memoirs of Annual Meeting 
of University Program for the Environment (PUMA,1992). 
 
"Agricultural, Livestock and Common Grazing Land Census, 
1981. General Summary", Mexico, INEGI, 1981. 
 
"Workbook for Inventories of Greenhouse Effect Gases", Vol. 2, IPCC. 
 
"First National Forestal Inventory", Subsecretaryship for Forestry, 
SARH, Mexico 1988. 
 
SEMIP (1991) National Energy Balance 1990. 
Mexico\Vulnerability Garcia E. 1988. Modifications to Koppen's 
Climatic Classification System, Fourth Edition. 217 p. 
 
Rzedowski, J. 1992. Potential Vegetation Chart. National Atlas 
of Mexico, Biogeography Section IV.8.2 Scale 1:4,000,000. 
Institute of Geography-UNAM  
 
Scenarios 
 
National Commission for Energy Saving, 1992. Report. 
CONAE-SEMIP. Mexico, Fed. District. Mexico. 
Environmental Protection Agency, 1990. Report. 
 
"Sustainable use of fuelwood in Rural Mexico", Masera O.; 
CONAE-SEMIP. Mexico, Federal District, 1993. 
 
"National Energy Balance". Secretaryship of Energy, Mines 
and Semi-state industries. SEMIP, 1991. 
 
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[END OF SECTION 3]
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