Index of "1995 1995 Interim Report on Climate Change Country Studies" ||
Index of "Environment and Science" ||
Electronic Research Collections Index ||
U.S. Department of State
March 1995 Interim Report on Climate Change Country Studies
Oceans and International Environmental & Scientific Affairs
[SECTION 3 OF 4]
Editor's Note: Numbers and letters contained withtin "<" and ">" marks
represent subtext in scientific formulas. Numbers between
"/" and "/" represent footnotes. Footnotes by the names of authors
are located just beneath the names. Footnotes contained within the
text can be found at the end of each chapter.
Kazakhstan: Overall Approaches and Preliminar
Results from Country Study
Sergei Kavalerchick, Asya Fisher,/1/ Vsevolod Golubtsov,
Edward Monocrovich, Olga Pilifosova, Irene Yeserkepova,
Paishan Kozhahmetov, Lubov Lebed, Olga Glumova, Ivan Skotselyas,
Valery Lee, Svetlana Dolgih, Zoja Korneeva, Svetlana Mizina,
Dmitriy Danchuk,/2/ Ervin Gossen, Alexei Startsev,/3/
Maria Amirhanova,/4/ Nina Inosemtseva, Georgy Papafanasopulo,/5/
Boris Akimov, Valentin Matveev,/6/ Vladimir Medvedev,
/1/Main Administration for Hydrometeorology at the Cabinet of Ministry
of the Republic of Kazakhstan
/2/Kazakh Scientific-Research Hydrometeorological Institute
/3/Academy of Agricultural Sciences
/4/State Statistical Committee
/5/Ministry of Energy and Fuel Resources
/6/Ministry of Industry
/7/Ministry of the Environment
SUMMARY: This report provides the overall approach and some results
of the work of the "Kazakhstan Climate Change Study" project in
three main areas: inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
sinks, mitigation assessment, and vulnerability assessment. In the
first area, the information on greenhouse gas sources and some
sinks, estimates of emissions and removals for Republic of
Kazakhstan for 1990, as well as a brief description of the
methodology used to evaluate these estimates and the associated
uncertainties are given. An estimation of future CO<2> emissions
from 1990 through 2000 is also presented. For the mitigation
assessment, the principal methods and approaches for evaluating
mitigation options for six sectors and some possible results in the
energy sector are provided. The vulnerability assessment is
addressing the following sectors: agriculture, forestry, and water
resources. The methodology for this assessment, which includes both
empirical-statistical and simulation approaches, is described.
Also, this article discusses some preliminary results and
uncertainties of the vulnerability assessment on the basis of
GCM-based climate change scenarios associated with increasing CO<2>
concentrations in the atmosphere.
Unfavorable consequences of climate change in connection
with anthropogenic increase of the concentrations of CO<2> and
other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere generate concern
throughout the world and in Kazakhstan, too. The Republic of
Kazakhstan is one of the 150 countries that signed the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The
Kazakhstan Government supports international cooperation on
climate change issues.
The Republic of Kazakhstan covers 2,717,000 sq km with a
population of over 17 million. The Republic consists of 19 regions,
220 districts, and over 80 cities and towns. The Republic consumes
about 10 million tons of coal, and its coal reserves are estimated at
39 billion tons. Oil production amounts to 26.6 million tons with the
reserves estimated at about 2,357 million tons. There are also deposits
of natural gas. The production of electric power exceeds 90 billion kWh
including over 82 billion kWh produced by thermal stations. Per capita
electric power consumption is 6,100 kWh annually.
The sowing areas of Kazakhstan exceed 35 million
hectares including about three million hectares of irrigated
land. The gross yield of grain is 25 to 30 million tons per
year. Part of the grain is exported. The leading branch of
animal husbandry is sheep breeding based on desert and
semidesert pastures which occupy vast expanses. The number of
cattle livestock is 9 million. Pigs, camels, and horses are also
Forests in Kazakhstan occupy a small area, only 3.6 percent
of the total territory (9,648,000 ha). Out of these, 1,800,000
ha are covered with coniferous forests, and the rest
with leaf-bearing woods and shrubs. The largest portion, 4.7
million ha, is covered with saksaul.
The U.S.-Kazakhstan Project, "Kazakhstan Climate Change
Study," was initiated on October 1, 1993. The main objectives of
this project are to carry out the following:
-- An inventory of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases
-- An analysis of mitigation options to reduce emissions or
-- An assessment of vulnerabilities of agriculture, water resources
and forestry to the impacts of climate change and an evaluation of
the options to adapt to these potential impacts Two committees have
been organized for the fulfillment of these activities. These are
the governmental and working committees. The representatives of nine
Ministries and Departments of Kazakhstan take part in the
implementation of the project. The Laboratory of Climate Change
Study was established in the Kazakh Scientific Research
Hydrometeorological Institute (KazNIGMI) to coordinate the work
on the project.
Inventory of GHG Emission and Sinks
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
together with other international scientific organizations
(United Nations Environmental Program, Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, Global Environment Facility,
International Energy Agency, etc.), has prepared the methodology
that was used for this work (IPCC Draft Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 1994). These guidelines provide for
comparison and estimation of the authenticity of work obtained
in different countries.
Information about yearly fuel consumption of all fuels for
1990 is the basis for the calculation of GHG (greenhouse
gases) emission from HPSs (heat power station) and large
boiler-houses. Also, the year 1990 conforms to the IPCC
recommendation. This information was obtained from the documents
of the State Statistical Accounts. The yearly fuel consumption
is recorded in tons for every HPS and for their sources of
supply (e.g., deposit, oil refineries, etc.). Knowing the
percentage content of carbon dioxide in every fuel, we can
determine the quantity of carbon dioxide burned by simple
multiplication of this percent by the volume of consumed fuel.
However, the methodology of IPCC can be difficult to apply.
This is possibly connected with the fact that some countries do
not have as good an initial data base as Kazakhstan does.
For comparison of our results with data of other countries and
to use the IPCC software, we made our calculations with IPCC
The aim of Kazakhstan's mitigation analysis is to
develop recommendations about options to decrease GHG emissions
and increase CO<2> absorptions by vegetation. All the
possibilities of GHG emission decrease in the branches of
Kazakhstan economy were evaluated taking into account both their
benefits and costs. The scope of these branches includes energy,
industrial, transportation, residential and commercial,
agriculture, and forestry sectors. The evaluation of the total
potential for decrease of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan will be
based on two scenarios relating to "pessimistic" and
"optimistic" hypotheses of development of the Kazakhstan economy
for period through the year 2020.
The methodology will consist of the calculations of the
likely decrease of GHG emissions with fuel switching, the
introduction of the new technologies, the increased use of
renewable energy sources, more active use of CH<4>, and other
options. The official state statistical data will be used. If
these data are not available, the methods of balance accounts
will apply. The latter are based on data which were obtained by
the Scientific Research Institutes of Kazakhstan as well as on
calculation of specific coefficients contained in the IPCC
The creation of scenarios of economic development will take
into account the predicted assessments of the Departments of
Trade Ministry, Kazakhstan Ministry of Economics (former State
Planning Committee of Kazakhstan) and Kazakhstan Institute of
Economics of Academy of Science. To carry out the mitigation
analysis in the energy sector the ENPEP model--developed by
Argonne National Laboratory--will be used.
The climate change vulnerability assessment in Kazakhstan
is addressing the following sectors: crops, potatoes,
grasslands, sheep-breeding, water resources, and forestry. These
sectors have been chosen as being of the widest interest to our
country and as having the most susceptibility to climate change.
The first step in the vulnerability assessment was
the development of future climate change scenarios. Scenarios of
the main climate change for Kazakhstan to asses both
long-term (doubling CO<2> in 2050-2075) and short-term (2010,
2030) impacts were prepared. The climate change under a doubling
of CO<2> was obtained on the basis of General Circulation Models
(GCM) outputs. We used outputs of three GCMs: the model of
Canadian Meteorological Center (CCCM) (Boer et al., 1991), the
model of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) (Manage
and Wetherald, 1987), and a transitional version of the same
The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using
the Probabilistic Forecast Model (PFM) (Gruza and Rankova, 1991)
we adapted to Kazakhstan (Pilifosova, 1991) for the year 2010
and the results of GFDL-T for 2030. Moreover, to evaluate
future climate changes for comparison, a baseline climate
scenario was used. This scenario represents the current climate
for the base period 1951-1980 without a warming trend in the
The assessment of vulnerability in some sectors was
based on models developed in Kazakhstan. Thus, for the
estimation of yield of agricultural crops and grasslands we used
a nonstationary dynamic model that had been developed by
KazNIGMI several years ago (Lebed and Belenkova, 1991). A
similar model was employed for estimating the yield of potatoes
(Glumova, 1988). An assessment of the vulnerability of
sheep-breeding was carried out on the basis of an unfavorable
weather conditions criterion for sheep productivity (Gulinova,
1988). A mathematical runoff model was applied in the water
resources sector (Golubtsov et al., 1989).
In general, the main principle for application of these models
to the vulnerability assessment was defined as follows. Different
climate variables (air temperature, insolation, humidity, rainfall,
etc.) were used as model input parameters. The simulation first was run
under the current climate conditions in accordance with a baseline
climate scenario. Then input climate parameters were changed according
to the regional climate change scenarios and used in another simulation.
The difference between these simulation outputs represented the changes
in the yield of agricultural crops, grasslands, livestock (sheep), water
resources, and forests, which occurred due to climate change impacts.
Obviously, in a number of cases the application of these
models required the transition of climate parameters from one
space-time averaging scale into another. For example, monthly
means of air temperature and precipitation were obtained from
the GCMs. But models of the yield of agricultural crops require
the 10-day mean data. After the data adaptation and fitting of
model parameters, analysis of the model sensitivity to different
changes (e.g. incremental scenarios) of input climate parameters
was conducted. For example, the estimation of vulnerability of
crops and sheep when air temperature is increased by 0.5oC
through 4.0oC was conducted. Input data included observed
climatic data from numerous reference books, data on crops
productivity of The State Committee on Statistics and some
experimental data from agricultural fields.
In addition to models developed in Kazakhstan, we used the
DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer)
model. DSSAT integrates the models which generally describe
the development, growth and yield of crops on homogenous area of
soil exposed to certain weather conditions. This system was
useful for running and validating the models, for conducting
sensitivity analysis, and for evaluating the variability and
risks of different management strategies for a range of
locations specified by soil and weather data. The CERES-Wheat
model (Ritchie, Otter, 1985) from DSSAT developed by
IBSNAT (International Benchmark Sites Agrotechnology Transfer)
was used for spring and winter wheat productivity vulnerability
assessment in Kazakhstan, which was based on the GFDL and CCCM
The Holdridge Model was used for the assessment of
vulnerability of forestry. We prepared the distribution of
Holdridge life zones (Holdridge, 1967) under the current climate
conditions as well as the maps of these zones for four climate
change scenarios on the basis of GCM outputs for a doubling of
CO<2> levels in the atmosphere: GISS (Hansen et al., 1983), UKMO
(Wilson and Mitchell, 1987), OSU (Shlesinger and Zhao, 1989),
and GFDL. These GCM outputs were built into the Holdridge model.
The Holdridge model relates the current spatial distribution
of vegetation to features of the climate system. The
Holdridge classification is suitable for examining the
broad-scale patterns of vegetation as they relate to climate and
how changes in climate patterns may influence the suitability of
a region to support different vegetation/forest types. However,
this approach does not address vegetation processes per se and
as such cannot be used to predict the temporal dynamics of
species composition and stand productivity, features that are
important in evaluating the potential impacts of environmental
change on forest resources and conservation. In order to make up
the maps of the territorial distribution of forest we chose the
additional scheme, which connected the forests distribution with
a precipitation and evapotranspiration (PET) model.
Inventory of GHG Emission and Sinks
The GHG emission inventory for the Kazakhstan territory for
1990 was completed following the IPCC methodology. The
largest stationary sources include HPSs and district boiler
houses, 23 enterprises of the ferrous and nonferrous metal
industry, 11 enterprises of the oil and gas industry, 8
enterprises of the chemical industry, 5 of the largest
machine-building plants, and 10 cement and asbestos plants (all
together 105 enterprises). The emissions from other fuel
consuming enterprises (i.e., food and light industries,
municipal economy, agriculture and cattle-breeding) were also
taken into account. The nonstationary sources such as
internal-combustion engines on automobiles, locomotives,
air-crafts and river-boats, on agricultural and constructional
engineering were defined as separate sources.
The results of calculations of annual CO<2>, CH<4>, CO, N<2>O,
NO, and nonmethane volatile compounds emissions are divided into
-- Heat power station and big boiler houses
-- Fuel extraction, processing and transportation
-- Ferrous and nonferrous metal industry
-- Chemical industry
-- Building materials production
-- Mechanical engineering and electrotechnics
-- Food and light industry
-- Nonstationary sources--internal-combustion engines
-- Residential boiler-houses and stoves
-- Landfills and wastewater treatment
-- Solvents production
Estimates of emissions of nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide
and nonmethane volatile compounds were obtained from the records
at the State Statistical Accounts. Emissions of carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have been determined by
balance calculations taking into account real fuel consumption,
quantity of cattle, rice area, and other data. The emission
factors recommended by IPCC and regional institutes were used in
the calculations. Values of specific GHG emissions of
internal combustion engines were obtained from the Kazakh
Scientific Research Institute of Motor Transport.
As a result, both the summary emissions of all six GHGs for
1990 and the contribution of separate sources (or branches
of industry) were defined. The calculation results are presented
in Table 1. The results are expressed in gigagrams (Gg)
in accordance with the IPCC. More than 90 percent of all
GHG emissions is, as expected, from CO<2> (198,729 Gg or nearly
200 million ton/yr). Thus the per capita CO<2> emission is over
CO<2> absorption from the atmosphere by forests of Kazakhstan
was estimated. The calculations have shown that forests absorb
up to 1,530 Gg/yr or less than 2.55 of the total emissions.
The largest sources of CO<2> emission are heat power stations
and district boiler-houses (48.5 percent), residential
boiler-houses and stoves (17.2 percent), internal combustion
engines (ICE) (12.9 percent), and enterprises of ferrous and
nonferrous metallurgy (5.2 percent). The largest sources of NO
emission are ICEs (53.7 percent) and heat power stations (36.4
percent). The largest sources of CH<4> emission are from solid
waste open dumps and wastewater treatment (49.5 percent) and
from agriculture (27 percent). The largest sources of CO
emissions are ICEs (67.8 percent), metallurgy (18.3 percent),
residential boiler-houses and stoves (3.2 percent). Data are
presented in percentages of the total emissions of the
In accordance with the IPCC guidelines, the estimation of
the initial data reliability (uncertainty) was made. The
most reliable are the data on heat power stations, which give
49,5 percent of the total emission of CO<2>, 39 percent of the
total emission of NO, and 19 percent of the total emission of
CO. The data were obtained by the analyses of CO and NO
contained in waste gases, and CO<2> was obtained by the balance
calculations. The probabilistic errors here do not exceed 5
percent. In other branches of industry the power registration
data are not highly accurate so that possible errors are within
the limits of 20 percent. The most unreliable calculation
results are those connected with ICE (13 percent of CO<2>
emission, 53.7 percent of NO emission and 67 percent of CO
As for the estimation of the authenticity of the data,
the comparison of our indices with the data reported by the
State Statistical Committee showed that variations on separate
gases were within the limits of 5-20 percent. For example, the
total NO emission from stationary sources in 1990 was 330 Gg in
the State Statistical Committee data but it was 314.7 Gg in
our calculations. The emission indices for residential
boiler-houses and stoves are the most unreliable, but these
emissions are not high.
In Table 2 the predicted data of CO<2> emission for the period
from 1991 to 2000 taking into account expert assessments and
fuel consumption of main branches of economy are shown. These
data show that the total CO<2> emission volume for the decade
from Kazakhstan territory will be 1,582,000 Gg. At the same time
CO<2> absorption by forests is estimated at 40,000 Gg. Thus,
the difference (without consideration of CO<2> absorption by
other reservoirs) will be 1,542,000 Gg.
The results of an evaluation of options to mitigate net
emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy sector by the
reconstruction and modernization of old HPSs, and the use of
steam-gas cycles is presented. The decrease of specific fuel
consumption from 350 g c.f./kWh (grammies conventional
fuel/kWh)(on Rankine cycle) to 190 or 160 g c.f./kWh is achieved
with electric power output by central heating. In addition the
specific CO<2> emissions decrease by 480 g c.f./kWh. When
additional electric power is produced by central heating cycle
the decrease of CO<2> emission is estimated to be 25,872 Gg for
The Aktubinsk HPS building that will use a steam-gas cycle
and produce 954 NW of power and 6 billion kWh annual electric
power production will be completed in 2000. Similar powerplants
with less capacity are expected to be put into operation in
Uralsk and Atyrau (in 2000-2005). The problem of replacing
traditional steam turbine engines with gas turbines in Uralsk
HPS-1, Atyrau HPS, Shimkent HPS-1, HPS-2, Jambyl HPS-3, Jambyl
state district electric power station (SDEPS) is being studied.
When energy is produced by steam-gas HPSs the CO<2> emission will
decrease by 11,988 Gg. The total decrease of CO<2> emission from
energy sources is estimated at 37,860 Gg.
Concerning the use of renewable sources, the most
promising project is the development of a wind-electrical
station "Jungarskie vorota" with 300 megawatts power and 900
billion kWh annual power production. In addition the
wind-electric engines in the Chilick corridor, Kurday passage,
Jengiz-To, Derjavinka, and Mugojary are projected to be put into
operation. Also wind-electric engines with small capacity are
planned for remote locations for water pumping, heating and
electricity generation. The decrease of CO<2> emission associated
with renewable energy options will be 4,627.2 Gg for 1996-2020.
As a result of the above described approaches, "optimistic" (GFDL)
and "pessimistic" (CCCM) scenarios under 2 x CO<2> conditions, were
defined. GFDL-Transient outputs give an "intermediate" scenario.
According to the GFDL model, a minimum increase of temperature is
expected in summer, when most of territory will be 4-5oC warmer. The
maximum (about 8oC) is expected to be in the winter. The mean annual
temperature increase is about 5oC. According to CCCM, the mean
annual temperature increase is 7oC and the maximum is of 12oC in
the spring. In most cases, the relative changes of precipitation
will be in the range of 0.8-1.2 or 80-120 percent (i.e., within
the normal limits).
Our calculations based on the observed data in Kazakhstan
show that the rise of annual average air temperature is 1oC/100
years and this is approximately twice as much as the mean global
rise of temperature. The analysis of prediction curves of
temperature and precipitation with the use of the PFM model has
allowed us to conclude that the rise of CO<2> concentration in the
atmosphere will cause an average rise of aridness (the increase
of temperature and decrease of precipitation) all over the
region. The highest rise of temperature will be 6oC in
comparison with the mean temperature for 1951-80. It is expected
to occur in the cooler half of the year in the North of
Kazakhstan. For the rest of the territory of the Republic, an
increase in the temperature of 1-3oC in the summer and 3-4oC in
the winter is expected by 2010.
There is a significant probability that the increase of
CO<2> concentration may cause some increase in
atmospheric precipitation in the south and southwest, and an
increase of aridness in the west and in the northeast Kazakhstan
in the winter. In the summer a decrease of precipitation of
20-50 percent is expected for all of Kazakhstan, except for the
To estimate the possible impacts of climate change on
wheat production in the main wheat producing regions of
Kazakhstan, the DSSAT model was used. The DSSAT model combines
the CERES-wheat crop growth model under GFDL and CCCM scenarios.
The GFDL scenario shows the spring and winter wheat yield
increasing in Western and Central Kazakhstan by approximately 10
percent and 5 percent, respectively. However, in Northern
Kazakhstan the yield decreases approximately by 12 percent.
According to the CCCM scenario, the spring wheat yield would
decrease by 35 percent and the winter yield would not decrease
significantly. Note that the yields changes under the baseline
scenario are about 2-4 percent.
The results of the preliminary analysis on the basis of our models
of crops vulnerability made for Western Kazakhstan show that the
increase of air temperature for the period of shoot ripening of spring
wheat causes significant deterioration of the thermal regime by
20-50 percent relative to optimal conditions. In this case the forecast
crops yield is expected not to be above 0.22-0.44 ton/ha. In comparison
the spring wheat yield was 0,82 ton/ha in 1991.
For the region located north of the Aral Sea the
possible increase of air temperature in the vegetative season of
2oC is accompanied by some increase in grassland productivity
(6-20 percent). These increased temperatures may allow for a
change in precipitation in the cool season of 30-40 mm resulting
in changes in feed productivity ranging from -18 to + 12
percent. A considerable decrease of productivity up to 40-50
percent from existing level is estimated with temperature
increases of 2 to 3oC. The possible climate changes due to a CO<2>
doubling scenario (e.g., GFDL model) may cause a 2-3 times
decrease in feed productivity on Priaralie grasslands in the
summer-autumn period with some increase in its reserves in the
The preliminary results on potato productivity were obtained
for five North Kazakhstan regions. The calculations of dynamics
of dry potato biomass during the vegetation season show
the potential for considerable decrease of water storage in
soil level. A 5mm decline in water levels would decrease
productivity by 5-8 percent and a decrease of water storage of
20 mm causes productivity losses of 20-26 percent.
Increasing the air temperature by 0.5oC decreases
potato productivity by 2-3 percent. An increase of air
temperature by 2oC causes a productivity decline by 6-10
In estimating vulnerability of sheep-breeding the data
from observations of sheep pasture conditions for 1959-1990
and biometeorological parameters defined earlier by other
researchers were used. If the number of days in a ten day period
with stable hot weather (SHW) equal 6 or more, a decrease of
sheep weight is observed. Such unfavorable hot periods which
repeat one after another and form a whole period with SHW are
being currently observed in the South and East-South of
Kazakhstan. An increase of air temperature of 1oC in May and
June causes an increase of the average SHW duration of 3 to 6
days. The SHW duration increases slightly less (by 2 to 4 days)
with rising air temperature in August and September. If
temperatures in both periods increase at the same time by 2o C,
the average duration of SHW periods will increase by almost two
weeks. Changes in atmospheric precipitation in the summer months
do not significantly change the duration of the SHW period.
The preliminary results of the probable influence of
climate change on the basis of the three GCM scenarios on water
resources of managed river basins in Kazakhstan were obtained.
Water resources runoff in the highlands of Kazakhstan increased
by 6-12 percent in year 2030 under the CFDL-T scenario. However,
the water resources runoff is reduced by 20-30 percent under
2xCO<2> conditions occurring later in the century according to the
CCCM and GFDL scenarios, respectively.
Having analyzed the discrepancies obtained by the Holdridge
(PET) model we have calculated the forest and forest-steppe
zones in correspondence with the 2 x C0<2> climate conditions
predicted by 4 models (GISS, UKMO, GFDL, OSU). The most
pessimistic results were obtained using the UKMO model.
According to this model only the northern part of the Republic
(the stripe with the width of 70-150 km located along the
Northern boundary) remains a forest-steppe zone. The area
suitable for forest growth according to UKMO model is expected
to be 15 percent of that for current climate.
According to 2xCO<2> OSU scenario, the forest area remains in
its present-day boundaries. The area of forest-steppe zone
according to the IET model is decreased along the Southern and
Western boundary (50-70 km).
The most optimistic scenario of the forestry is
obtained according to the climate change scenario based on the
GISS model. It is the only one of four models which predicts the
increase of suitable areas for the growth of the forests due to
a probable climate warming. The boundary of steppe-forest-steppe
is moved by 120-180 km towards the south and the west. According
to this scenario the areas suitable for forests growth are
increased 1.6-1.8 times.
The impacts of the scenarios of GFDL and the OSU scenarios
are midway between the impacts of the GISS and the UKMO
Conducting our work on the Kazakhstan Climate Change
Study Project, we came across a number of uncertainties and
problems. One of them is related to the assessment of future GHG
emission in our country (Table). At the present time it is
difficult to predict reliably the volume of GHG emissions for
the period from 1991 to 2000. The state authorities in
Kazakhstan have changed after the USSR was split up,
specifically authorities such as the State Planning Committee
have been dismantled. For 60 years from 1927, the planning and
development of the national economy (in which the share of the
private sector was minimal) was led by the government of the
USSR in accordance with confirmed five- or seven-year plans.
There are no such plans at the Departments and the role of
private sector productive forces increases while that of
state-owned sector decreases. As a result of that, it
is impossible to receive any information from government
offices. That is why we had to rely on expert evaluations.
The central problem with the mitigation analysis is the
cost assessment of the mitigation options in view of the
economical declines, especially production declines and
inflation. It is a difficult challenge to predict the
development of these processes now.
There are two principal sources of uncertainties in
the vulnerability assessment. The first is associated
with uncertainty of the climate change scenarios particularly at
a regional level. It is known that increased greenhouse
gas emissions will likely raise global temperatures
and precipitation; however, no reliable suggestions can be made
about their regional effect.
The second source of uncertainties arises from the
imperfection of the models used in assessment of local
conditions. The use of the DSSAT model demands input parameters
which do not correspond to our data. For example, information
about tillage, chemical composition of fertilization are not
available. We often are limited in availability of current
meteorological information for the input parameters of models.
In this case we have to use the Weather Generators, which do not
take into account the local climatic diversity of our regions.
The DSSAT model is also oriented for local fields, while we need
to obtain estimates for the whole Kazakhstan region.
Similar problems are connected with the use of the
Holdridge model. In mountain regions the vertical zonality is
formed, which is simulated poorly where the resolution of the
database set (0.5*0.5 degrees) is small. Furthermore, such
territories contain areas (especially hollows and canyons) which
exist due to additional water-flow from the surrounding slopes.
The result is that if the evapotranspiration exceeds the
precipitation, the vegetation is still formed. Although this
forest vegetation is of fragmentary character, the total area of
these territories may be considerable. Neither the Holdridge
model nor the PET model consider these specific conditions which
cause errors in vegetation classification.
Both models fail to predict the pine forests propagation due
to the fact that the ordinary pine is a drought-resistant
species under the current conditions of Kazakhstan. It forms
forests when the deficit of precipitation is 250mm or more. The
ordinary pine grows under such conditions only on the sands with
good aeration, developing powerful root systems, which can reach
soil waters. The soil types are not considered in these models.
Therefore we tried to use the models worked out in KazNIGMI
for the vulnerability assessment in agriculture and water
resources sectors. But of course, the models we used have their
own advantages and disadvantages. Advantages of these models
are their good fitting for geographic, climate, and
other peculiarities of the region of Kazakhstan and the use of
observed data as inputs of model. The major disadvantage is that
they first were made for near-term projections (month,
season, timeframe) and then were modified for this
vulnerability assessment. So we have to transform data from one
time-scale averaging to another. This introduced additional
The main conclusions of this work are as follows:
-- As a result of the inventory of GHG emission and sinks
the summary emission of all six GHGs for 1990 and the
contribution of separate sources (or branches of industry) were
defined. More than 90 percent of all GHG emissions by mass are
from CO<2>, 198,729 Gg or nearly 200 million ton/yr. Thus, more
than 11 tons of CO<2> are emitted on a per capita basis in
Kazakhstan every year. CO<2> absorption from the atmosphere by the
forests of Kazakhstan was estimated to be up to 1,530 Gg or less
than 2.5 percent of total emissions. The most authentic data are
the data for heat power stations, which give 49,5 percent of the
total emissions of CO<2>, 39 percent of the total emission of NO,
and 19 percent of the total emission of CO. The data were
obtained by the analyses of CO and NO contained in waste gases,
and the CO<2> estimates were obtained by balance calculations.
The probabilistic error here don't exceed 5 percent.
-- The assessment of possible decreases of CO<2> emission in
the energy sector by the reconstruction and modernization of the
old HPSs and putting into operation steam-gas cycles as well
as replacing HPS by renewable resources was carried out.
Additional electric power production by central heating cycles
is liable to decrease CO<2> emissions by 25,872 Gg. Energy
production in steam gas HPSs is liable to decrease CO<2> emissions
by 11,988 Gg. The total possible decrease of CO<2> emission from
energy sources is 37,860 Gg for 1996-2020. The utilization of
the wind energy is apt to decrease CO<2> emissions by 4,627.2 Gg
-- Based on the observed data, the rise of mean
annual temperature in Kazakhstan for the period of 1891-1990 of
1oC is approximately twice the mean global increase. According
to the GCM scenarios (GFDL, CCCM, GFDL-T), the mean annual
temperature in Kazakhstan will increase by 5.0-6.9oC by the time
a doubling of CO<2> is observed. By 2010 there is expected to be
an increase of 2-3oC (CDFM scenario). Corresponding changes in
precipitation are less significant.
-- The preliminary vulnerability assessments based on the
DSSAT model for 2xCO<2> conditions show that the spring and winter
wheat yields would decrease by 12 percent in Northern
Kazakhstan. But the crops model of KazNIGMI gives spring wheat
yields twice below those of 1991 if the warming is 2-3oC
compared with current climate.
The grasslands of Central Kazakhstan would decrease by 2-3
times under 2xCO<2> conditions. Potato productivity is decreased
by 6-10 percent if the warming will be 2oC.
-- In the South and Southeast parts of the country,
the potential climate change will cause the decrease of sheep
weight and the expansion of areas where the heat-resistant
Strakhan sheep graze will move to the North. Zooclimatic
conditions in the semiarid zone of South Pribalkhashie will be
like the present conditions of South Kazakhstan where the
Strakhan sheep are being maintained.
-- As for water resources, the vulnerability assessment
has been completed only for mountain basins. In these
regions Kazakhstan's water resources will not vary significantly
if climate is changed according to the GFDL Transient scenario
for doubling of CO<2> concentrations. The intermediate
CO<2> concentration levels associated with 2030 result in an
increase of water resources runoff of about 6-12 percent. In the
case of the CCCM and GFDL scenarios for a CO<2> doubling, it is
anticipated that the water resource runoff will decrease by
-- For forests, the most pessimistic scenario is obtained
with the use of UKMO model. In accordance with this scenario
the extremely northern part of the Republic (the zone with a
width of 70-150 km along the north boundary) remains within
the forest-steppe zone. The forest boundaries are not changed if
the climate will be as the OSU model gives. The most
optimistic prediction for forestry is based on the GISS model.
It is the only scenario of the four variants which does not
simulate a restriction of the territory suitable for the forest
growth. Thus the preliminary estimation of the vulnerability
of Kazakhstan's resources have shown that the expected rise in
the temperature of Kazakhstan's climate following the increase
of GHG concentration in atmosphere will lead to unfortunate
results in many regions, although several of the results are
contradictory. Some of the reasons for this were noted earlier.
In this article, only the first part of our vulnerability and
adaptation assessment is being presented. Our preliminary
results need to be refined. An assessment of the economic
consequences and a series of recommendations for adaptation
measures for the agricultural, water, and forestry sectors to be
presented to the policymakers, will be prepared.
Boer, G.J., N. McFarlane, and M. Lazare. 1991.
Greenhouse gas-induced climatic change simulated with the
CCC second-generation GCM. Accepted for publication in the J.Climate.
Golubtsov, V.V., V.I. Lee, and T.P. Stroeva. 1989.
Simulation of flow formation processes when information is limited.
Proceedings of V All-Union hydrological symposium. 6. P.
Gruza, G.V., and E.Ya. Rankova. 1991. Probabilistic forecast
of global surface air temperature up 2005. Meteorol. Hydrolog.,
4, p. 95-103 (in Russian).
Hansen, J., G. Rissell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff,
R. Ruedy, and L. Travis. 1983. Efficient three-dimensional global
models for climate studies: models I and II.,
April Monthly Weather Review. III:609-662.
Holdridge, L.R. 1967, Life Zone Ecology, Tropical Science
Center, San Jose, Costa Rica.
IPCC. 1993. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reporting
Instructions, Final Draft, Vol.1. IPCC/OECD Joint Program.
IPCC. 1993. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook, Final
Draft, Vol.2. IPCC/OECD Joint Program.
IPCC. 1993. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reference Manual,
First Draft, Vol.3. IPCC/OECD Joint Program.
Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald. 1987. Large-scale changes in
soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide. April,
Atmos. Sci., 44: 1211-1235.
Pilifosova, O.V. 1992. Probabilistic of precipitation in
the Kazakhstan - Middle Asia region. Proceeding of KazNIGMI,
111: 64-72 p. (in Russian).
Ritchie, J.T.., and S. Otter. 1985. Description and
performance of CERES-Wheat: A User-oriented Wheat Yield Model.
In: Willis W.O., ed. ARS Wheat Yield Project. Washington D.C.:
US DOA, Agricultural Research Service. Ars-38. p. 159-175.
Schlesinger, M.E., and Z.-C. Zhao. 1989. Seasonal climate
changes induced by doubled CO<2> as simulated by the OSU
atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean model. J.Climate.
Wilson, C.A., and J.F.B. Mitchel. 1987. A doubled CO<2>
climate sensitivity experiment with a global model including a
simple ocean. Journal of Geophys. Res., 92:13315-13343.
Malawi: Greenhouse Gas Inventory
and Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability
Francis X. Mkanda/1/ et al.
/1/Department of National Parks and Wildlife
SUMMARY: Malawi is one of the countries that have ratified
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). Under this Convention, parties to the Convention must
communicate to the Conference of the Parties (COP) their
national inventories of anthropogenic emissions of all
greenhouse gases by sources and sinks using comparative
methodologies. With financial assistance from the United States
Country Studies Program (U.S.CSP) to address climate change,
Malawi intends to develop a baseline for greenhouse gas data
suitable for scientific understanding of the relationship
between gas emissions and climate change. Additionally, Malawi
will assess the vulnerability of important sectors (water,
agriculture, and wildlife) to climate change impacts and
recommend adaptation and mitigation measures. This report
describes the four study elements of the country studies, i.e.,
specific objectives and methodologies that will be employed.
Since this study has just been initiated, no results are
reported but a description of the use into which the
expected results will be put is given.
There is a growing awareness that the increase in the amount
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) being released into the atmosphere
will have adverse effects on the global weather systems. The
warming is not expected to be globally uniform but could
differ significantly between geographical regions and vary
between seasons (Ottichilo et al., 1991). According to the U.S.
Country Studies Program Guidance Document (1994), the key
natural resource sectors that might be susceptible to changes in
climate include agricultural crops, livestock, forests, water
resources, coastal resources, fisheries, and wildlife. African
countries are more vulnerable than industrialized countries to
the effects of climatic change for two reasons (Ominde and Juma,
1991). First, the current economic and ecological crises have
weakened the capacity of many countries to adjust to drastic
economic and ecological changes. Second, most of the people
depend on agriculture for their subsistence, and agriculture
depends a great deal on climatic patterns.
According to Ominde and Juma (1991), global warming would
induce changes in precipitation and wind patterns, changes in
the frequency and intensity of storms, ecosystem stress and
species loss, reduced availability of fresh water, and a rising
global mean sea level. Although the actual impacts may not be
easily predicted, changes in weather patterns may either lead to
the prevalence of severe drought conditions or extreme flood
events in Malawi. The existence of prolonged drought periods
will seriously affect agricultural production on which Malawi
heavily depends for the sustenance of her economy. Water for
domestic consumption will also become scarce as experienced
during the 1991-92 drought; the capacity to generate
hydroelectric power will decline and lake transport services
will also be seriously affected. On the other hand, very wet
conditions will cause heavy floods with subsequent loss of life
Malawi signed the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, and
ratified the Convention in March 1994. Realizing further the
importance of the environment, Malawi launched its National
Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) in November 1994.
Under the UNFCCC, parties to the Convention must communicate
to the Conference of the Parties (COP) their national
inventories of anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gases
by sources and sinks using comparative methodologies
There has never been an inventory of GHGs in Malawi before.
The potential impact of rising temperatures and changes in
rainfall pattern is also unknown. Data are lacking on this
subject therefore it was felt necessary to identify sources and
sinks of GHGs and assess the vulnerability of various sectors to
climate change impacts.
The general objective of the study is to carry out an
inventory of greenhouse gases emissions in Malawi and assess the
impacts of climate change on the major socioeconomic sectors of
Malawi. This study considered the following sectors (hereafter
called study elements) important for vulnerability assessment:
Water Resources, Wildlife, and Agriculture. There are several
reasons for selecting these sectors as can be seen in the
Malawi is largely an agricultural country, and it grows
mostly tobacco, sugar, and maize, besides other crops.
Livestock production is also an important industry that is
growing. In addition there is noticeable industrial growth in
major cities of Malawi. All these activities generate greenhouse
Another source of GHGs is domestic woodfuel use. Malawi's
energy source is mainly (95 percent) from woodfuel while only 3
percent is hydroelectric power generation. The implication is
that several hectares of forests are cleared every year to meet
the daily energy needs. This results in an accelerated removal
of sinks of GHGs, leaving the gases to concentrate in
the atmosphere. Bush fires that occur annually in forests,
national parks, and wildlife reserves are yet another source of
In Malawi, GHGs also come from the biological process
of decomposition, and emissions from motor vehicles. It has
been documented that if wood is not stored properly, i.e., left
to rot, it generates GHGs (e.g., CO and CH<4>). Of late there has
been an increase in traffic volume, particularly in the urban
areas of Malawi although the quantities of traffic emissions are
Malawi, like any other nation, realizes that her
development activities are part of the worldwide concern over
the increases of GHGs. However, information about the actual
sources and quantities of the emissions is lacking, hence the
inclusion of this element in the study. The country study will
therefore develop a national inventory based on the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology and
create a data base that will enable both scientists and
administrators to understand and appreciate the importance of
the problem. The specific objectives of this inventory are to:
-- Develop baseline data suitable for scientific understanding
of GHGs emissions and their relationship to climate change
-- Enhance Malawi's ability to monitor and report national
inventories of GHGs emissions and sinks
-- Promote the exchange of information related to climate
change at national level to develop policy options and technology
choices suitable to mitigate GHGs sources and emissions
The necessity to study the impacts of climate change on both
the quantity and quality of water resources cannot be
overemphasized. Although Malawi may be considered generally rich
in water resources, the distribution is not even. Therefore
there is a pressing need to adopt sound and sustainable
management practices of water resources to avert the threat
posed by changes in climate. The specific objectives of this
study element therefore are to assess the impacts of climate
-- The hydrology and water systems of Malawi with emphasis
on watersheds, catchment areas and major wetlands (lakes,
-- The management of surface and groundwater resources
Vegetation affects the hydrological cycle of a region
by influencing the processes of evapotranspiration and
surface runoff. Ninety percent of Malawi's population is located
in rural areas where among other things they depend on forests
for fuel, household poles, fodder in the dry season, furniture,
and other wood-based activities. Farming activities have further
resulted into encroachment of these protected areas. According
to Mkanda (1991), encroachment accounts for about 1 percent of
land under national parks and wildlife reserves in Malawi. The
net result is an estimated 1.6 percent annual permanent
deforestation. It is necessary, therefore, to evaluate the
potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems with
particular emphasis on identifying plant species and communities
that are sensitive to, or at risk from, climate change. This
study element intends to provide baseline data for assessing
changes in species composition, vegetation structure, and cover.
National Parks have universal values (McNeely, 1992).
They maintain essential ecological processes that depend on
natural ecosystems, and preserve species diversity and the
genetic variation within them. National parks also maintain
productive capacities of ecosystems; preserve historic and
cultural features important to the traditional lifestyles and
well-being of local peoples; safeguard habitats critical for the
sustainable use of species; secure landscapes and wildlife that
enrich human experience through their beauty; provide
opportunities for community development, scientific research,
education, training, recreation, and tourism; and serve as
sources of national pride and human inspiration. Additionally,
national parks are close to pristine environments, so they are
considered as indicators of environmental quality. Therefore any
impact of climate change may not only be easily noticeable in
national parks but it would also seriously reduce the values of
these areas. It is therefore important to study these areas to
institute adaptation measures from a point of knowledge. So the
specific objectives of this study element are to:
-- Provide baseline information on the vulnerability
of national parks and wildlife to impacts of climate change
-- Recommend strategies to adapt impacts of climate change
Agriculture is the backbone of Malawi's economy providing
for over 50 percent of the GNP. Malawi has not yet sustained
food self-sufficiency; to the contrary, an underdeveloped
subsistence livestock sector, and declining crop yield levels
threaten the livelihood of the present population of eight
million people and the availability of natural resources to
Crop and livestock production depend on rainfall as the sole
source of water supply. Less than 5 percent of arable land is under
irrigation, although Malawi is endowed with over 21 percent of its area
as rivers, lakes, and marshes. In the last three decades, the country
has experienced variability and unpredictability of seasonal rainfall.
There have been three significant droughts (in 1978-79, 1981-82, and
the worst one in the 1991-92 season), frequent and increasingly
long dry spells, and erratic onset and cessation of rainfall.
Tremendous variability means recurrent drought with increasing
frequency as one moves to lower rainfall zones. Even with fair
or excellent rainfall in those zones, no one would know when to
expect which kind of season. Thus, the risk of failure of the
more desired food crops and pasturage is high and unavoidable
owing to the inability to predict.
It is envisaged that the anticipated global climate change
will alter temperature and rainfall levels in some areas.
These changes, with increased fluctuations, are expected to
cause many shifts in food production. Most crops are sensitive
to changes in climate conditions, including alterations in
temperature, moisture, and carbon dioxide levels. Furthermore,
major climate changes influence populations of beneficial
organisms and pests and alter their effective roles in
Finally, in the last two decades, the shift towards production
of cash crops, particularly tobacco, at the expense of
subsistence food crops has pushed crop and animal production to
marginal (rainfall) lands. Further, the rampant growing of the
major staple cereal (maize), even in areas marginal for its
production has exacerbated the food production problem and
environmental and soil erosion problems. With the growing human
population in Malawi, and general resource limitations in land,
water, and energy, sound ecological technologies for resource
use in agriculture are being sought and this study is a
rational initiative. The specific objectives of this study
element therefore are to:
ù Assess the past climate (temperature and rainfall) and
its impact on crop and livestock production with emphasis on
maize yields, feed resources, and pest attack as indicators of
-- Estimate the potential impact of climate change on
-- Identify and evaluate potential alterations in
agricultural practices that would lessen any adverse
consequences of climate change
The Malawi Country Study has not initiated field studies yet
as it just received funding. Without results from field
studies, this report will merely describe the approach that
Malawi will use to accomplish this crucial study. It is worth
mentioning at this point that very limited literature on
approved methodologies was available at the time of formulating
this project. Consequently, the proposed methodologies were developed
based on the team's experience and expertise. Malawi hopes that
various experts on this subject will review the proposed
methodologies critically and provide their valuable guidance.
A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF MALAWI
Location and Topography
Malawi lies in the southern half of Africa between latitude
9o 22' and 17o 7'S, and between longitudes 32o 40' and 35o 55'
E. The total area is 118,483 sq km of which 94,275 sq km is land
and 24,208 sq km is water. Malawi is a landlocked country and
it borders with Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zambia starting
north going clockwise.
Geographically, Lake Malawi which is Africa's third largest
and the world's eleventh, dominates the country. It measures
about 550 km long by 15-80 km wide, and occupies a deep Rift
Valley trough that cuts through the country along a north-south
line. The lake surface elevation is about 474 m, and the deepest
point is 230 m below sea level.
Lake Malawi and the Shire River are part of the Great
African Rift Valley. On either side of the rift abrupt
escarpments rise to the highlands that flank it. To the west the
highlands include the Nyika (highest elevation 2,607 m), Viphya
(2,058 m), and Dedza (2,198 m) plateaus. To the east they
include the Shire highlands (1,774 m), Zomba plateau (2,087 m),
and the Mangochi and Namizimu hills (1,796 m). The eastern
highlands continue northwards into Mozambique, and Tanzania.
Behind the rift edge highlands the land descends gently to the
Central African Plateau at elevations around 1,000 m. Examples
of this are the Lilongwe and Kasungu plains. The country's
lowest elevation of about 37 m is on the Rift Valley floor at
the extreme south, while Mulanje Mountain, an ancient volcanic
plug standing on the plateau to the south east, is at 3,050
m--the highest point in Central Africa.
Malawi's climate is greatly influenced by the lake and
elevation. In essence there are three seasons: cool and dry,
from May to August; warm and dry, from September to November;
and warm and wet, from December to April. The annual rainfall
ranges from about 600 to 3,000 mm, being generally greatest at
higher elevations, and least in the Lower Shire Valley, and the
Chitipa plain (Clarke, 1983). Temperatures approach, and may
surpass, 40o C in the Rift Valley during October and November,
while frost may be experienced on high ground during the cooler
Soils and Vegetation
There are four main soil groups (Moyo et al., 1993). The
latosols are red to yellow, leached acid soils in which water
movement within the profile is predominantly downwards. They
occupy freely-drained sites, mainly on the gently-sloping plains
but also in some steeply dissected hills. The calcimorphic soils
are grey to greyish brown with a weak acid to weak alkaline
reaction in which water movement is upward during at least part
of the year. They occur on nearly-level depositional plains
with imperfect drainage. The hydromorphic soils are black, grey
or mottled and waterlogged for all or part of the year. The
fourth group comprises lithosols that are shallow or stony soils
and regosols that are immature soils developed from sand.
Malawi's has 19 biotic communities mappable at a scale
of 1:1,000,000 (Shaxson, 1977). The vegetation is typical
savanna woodland with Brachystegia as the dominant species.
Malawi's national parks, wildlife reserves, and forest reserves
cover approximately 21 percent of the land surface area. The
national parks and wildlife reserves represent thirteen of the
nineteen biotic communities. The aim of setting aside these
areas is to preserve selected examples of Malawi's biotic
communities and conserve watersheds/catchment areas (Clarke,
1983). The different vegetation communities are a habitat to
diverse wildlife; about 181 species of mammals, over 100
reptiles, 56 amphibians, and 620 species of birds (Ansell, 1989;
Sweeney, 1966; Stewart, 1967; Benson and Benson, 1977).
Population and Economy
Malawi has a population of about ten million with a growth
rate of approximately 3 percent (Malawi Government, 1987).
The resultant density of about 85/sq km makes Malawi one of the
most densely populated countries in the sub-Saharan Africa.
About 90 percent of Malawi's population is rural and
dependent on agriculture. Agriculture employs almost 85 percent
of the labor force and accounts for about 43 percent of the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and nearly 90 percent of the export
earnings. The income per capita GNP is estimated at US $230.00
Greenhouse Gases Inventory
The IPCC methodology will be applied to the following
modules: Energy, Industrial processes, Solvent Use, Agriculture,
Land-Use, and Wastes. These modules will cover a wide range of
To begin with, the energy module will consider all
the GHGs that are emitted from fuel combustion and fugitive
fuel. Specifically, the following calculations will be made: GHG
emissions from stationery sources (boilers and kilns), emissions
from mobile sources, CO<2> from traditional biomass burning, and
CH<4> from coal mining and handling. As to industrial processes,
the main emphasis will be on CO<2> emanating form factories, e.g.,
cement manufacturing. The third module will concentrate on
solvents that produce NO<2>, CO<2>, and volatile organic compounds,
such as non-methane organic compounds from paint, thinners, and
related material from printing activities and dry cleaning. On
the other hand, emissions from agriculture will be inventoried
to measure quantities of CH<4> in enteric fermentation and manure,
flooded rice fields, N<2>O from soils, and CH<4>, CO, N<2>O from
burning of agricultural residues. Lastly, the waste management
module will give much consideration to the emissions of methane
from landfills and waste water from municipals and industries.
Although Malawi may be considered to be generally rich in
water resources, the distribution is not even. Hence there is
a pressing need to adopt sound and sustainable management of
water resources to avert threats of depletion and degradation
posed by climate change. The study will be divided into three
components that may run concurrently as:
-- Development of baseline and climate change scenarios
using data from 1951 to 1980 with GCMs
-- Collection of data on surface water resources
(i.e., streams, lakes, rivers, marshes), stream flows and
runoffs, surface water quality, and supplementary data
-- Compilation of data on water balance using models for
rates of stream flow, runoff, and water quality
This study will evaluate the ecological integrity of wildlife
and their habitats in two national parks under two climate
scenarios. Sensitivity tests of the habitat under different
temperature and rainfall regimes will be tested to come up with
possible scenarios of climate change impacts on wildlife
habitats. Finally, the study will correlate habitat and animal
population data with climate data to assess potential impacts of
climate change on the protected areas and their large mammal
Study Site Selection
Two national parks, i.e., Nyika and Lengwe, will be used as
study sites. Nyika mostly lies on a plateau at a high elevation
with low temperatures and high rainfall. In contrast, Lengwe
National Park lies in the Lower Shire Valley (Southern Malawi)
at an altitude of between 30 and 100 m above sea level
approximately. The mean annual temperature is the highest and
the rainfall is the lowest and most unreliable (600-700 mm) in
Malawi (Shire Valley Agricultural Development Program, 1975).
In choosing these two sites, the study with cover two
extreme climate conditions of Malawi. The availability of
reasonable quantities of data from the two areas has also
influenced site selection.
Baseline Climate Data
To help identify how changes in baseline conditions
affect sensitivity of wildlife to climate change, precipitation
and temperature data for the period 1961-90 for each site will
be obtained from the Meteorological Department. The data will
be entered into the habitat suitability index model.
Climate Change Scenarios
GCM outputs for 1 x CO<2> conditions for the Malawi region will
be obtained from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR). A comparison of the regional 1 x CO<2> output
with the observed climate data will be made and the three GCMs
that best reflect current climate will be selected. Using the
selected GCMs, the study will create climate scenarios for the
sites under 2 x CO<2> conditions. The resulting precipitation and
temperature outputs will be used in the wildlife habitat
suitability index analysis and the water and forestry elements
of the Malawi Country Study. Desanker (in press) also presents
useful precipitation and temperature data for selected sites in
Malawi under CO<2> doubling.
Habitat Suitability Analysis
The Habitat Suitability Index model developed by the U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service will be used for each site to
calculate habitat suitability indices for two ecologically and
economically important species. Nyala (Tragelaphus angasi G) and
Roan (Hippotragus equinus) antelopes will be chosen in the
study. Nyala is the keystone species in Lengwe National Park
which is the northernmost limit in Africa. On the other hand,
the roan antelope which is listed on Appendix II of CITES
(Convention in International Trade in Endangered Species of
Flora and Fauna) is one of the most abundant ungulate in Nyika
First, the study will use the MIOMBO model developed by
Desanker & Prentice (1994) to evaluate how the vegetation shifts in
Malawi will occur under the generated climate scenarios. Using the
HSI model for each climate, we will input the following habitat
variables: water availability, prescribed burning regime, intensity of
human influence, browse/grass availability, preference values of
browse/graze species, importance values of preferred browse species, and
vegetation cover. When using these variables, the study will
assume that the other parameters are constant, e.g., soil
nutrient, soil moisture, floristic richness, and intraspecific
A sensitivity analysis will be conducted by exploring the
effects of precipitation variability. The model will be run
under different scenarios where just one variable at a time is
varied. For example, in one set of runs, we would hold all
variables but watering availability constant, and in one run try
watering availability in a poor rain year. In another run the
model will try a moderately poor rain year, then an average rain
year, a moderately good rain year, and a final run in a very
good rain year. In a second set of runs, we would assume the
effects of variation in rainfall on a different variable, and
hold water availability and the rest of the variables constant.
Animal Population Vulnerability Assessment
Animal population data will be collected for each
species. Existing data on animal numbers and distribution will
be consolidated and updated using aerial and ground
census techniques. To exclude human influence (poaching of the
key species for example) as a possible cause of any impact that
the study might detect, the study will analyze the law
enforcement effort data in these areas and assess its influence
on animal species abundance and distribution.
Millsap et al. (1990) used biological vulnerability and state
of knowledge to provide a logical ranking of all vertebrate taxa
in Florida. In this study, however, we will only employ
the biological variables which measure characteristics of
population status or life history because the action variables
become useful when ranking different species to set conservation
priorities for each of them in an area. Those variables are as
follows: population size, trend, range size, distribution
trend, population concentration, reproductive potential for
recovery, and ecological specialization.
A Population Viability Analysis (PVA) model developed by
the Captive Breeding Specialist Group of the World Conservation
Union will be used to evaluate the health of the nyala and
roan populations under both the baseline and climate change
scenarios. This analysis will help eliminate incorrect
interpretation of genetic effects as climate change impacts.
Relationship Between Habitat and Animal Populations
The study will attempt to make correlations of the habitat
and animal population data with meteorological data on
ecologically and economically important large mammal species.
The study will relate the animal population status data with the
HSI analysis results generated from the precipitation and
temperature data under the baseline and carbon dioxide doubling
scenarios. This will help assess potential impacts of climate
change on these two species. Any potential impact identified by
the study will subsequently lead to selection of appropriate
adaptation measures which are the ultimate outputs of the study.
The study will define the geographical boundaries of the
major production regions of the country, and estimate the
current production of major crops in those regions using
observed crop data. It will also provide observed climate data
for representative stations for the baseline period (1961-90),
or for as many years of daily data as are available, and specify
the soil, crop, and management inputs necessary to run crop
models at the selected stations. Additionally, the study will
use observed data of incidence, type, and magnitude of pest
attack of major crops for as many years of seasonal data as
An analysis of time series of monthly and seasonal rainfall
and temperature values (baseline climate data) will be made
by running a simulation model (maize) to evaluate potential
adaptive strategies using CERES-Maize Model and General
Circulation Models (GCM) outputs. Observed climate and crop
data, will be modified to determine climate change scenarios
(determine and compare ten-year and long-term variability of
historical and GCM output elements). Strategies for adapting to
different climate change scenarios with or without the direct
effects of CO<2> and other parameters will be recommended.
No results can be reported yet as the study has just
begun. Therefore this report can only describe the use to which
the results will be put. All study elements have similar uses
of results although some study elements were designed with
specific benefits/uses in mind. The common benefits/uses are:
-- Contribution to chapters on GHGs inventories
and vulnerability assessment
-- Capacity building, expertise development, and
appropriate technology transfer
-- Documented evidence on the sources and sinks of GHGs,
and the socioeconomic dimension and public understanding of
climatic change impacts on the water resources, forest
resources, wildlife resources, and agricultural productivity
-- Baseline data on national inventories of GHGs and impact
of climate change on wildlife, water, forests, society,
and agro-climatic suitability classification of both crop plants
and livestock products. These data bases will be updated to
evaluate trends of climate change impacts on all the sectors and
the updates will be submitted to the Conference of Parties of
the Climate Convention
-- Support for national policy and technological
options regarding GHGs emission levels.
The benefits and uses that are specific to study elements
include acquisition of climate change models (water);
scientific publications in local and international journals
(wildlife), and information dissemination through reports at
local and international conferences, publications, and national
This study would have included other important subjects such
as mitigation and adaptation. However, limited funding
has necessitated that only inventories of GHGs and
vulnerability assessments be conducted.
To accomplish the Country Study effectively,
different institutions (governmental, the University of Malawi,
and Non-Governmental Organizations) with the necessary
capabilities have pooled their human resources together for
efficient coordination of the set procedures. The Department of
Meteorology together with the Ministry of Research and
Environmental Affairs (MOREA) are the management authorities on
climate change issues in Malawi. Therefore, they comprise
Malawi's delegation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change and the INC (Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee)
under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
To strengthen the existing infrastructure and
ensure applicability of the existing climate information to the
planning and management of socioeconomic and environmental
programs, a National Climate Committee was formed under the
former Department of Research and Environmental Affairs (DREA),
now called MOREA. The same committee will develop and strengthen
capabilities to forecast significant climate variations. MOREA
is the coordinator of the project. They will be responsible for
submission of quarterly technical and financial reports on
behalf of the various study teams. The National Climate
Committee mentioned earlier before will be responsible for
monitoring the progress of all the activities of the project.
Although Malawi has local expertise to implement the
different study elements, she realizes that there are some
shortcomings such as lack of training and experience in this new
field. Therefore, Malawi needs assistance to inventory its GHGs
since it has no previous experience and expertise. Technical
assistance in the form of training workshops will be required
for the coordinator, lead and alternate contact persons. These
will provide a hands-on experience on coordination, inventory,
and vulnerability and adaptation assessments. The workshops will
also be a source of resource material on models, reports, and
other analytical tools necessary to accomplish the country
Technical assistance will also be required in the form
of consultants and advisors who will pay field visits to those
study elements that will find on-site assistance necessary.
These visits will also be essential in providing guidance and
review of progress made in the study. The technical assistance
is crucial for sustainability of the project's activities. With
the skills acquired during the training workshops and field
visits by US experts, the Malawian counterparts can keep
assessing future impact of climate change not only in the
sectors included in this country study, but also in any other
sector when the need arises.
To ensure timely implementation, Malawi has developed a framework
within which to accomplish the study. Since Malawi has no experience in
the type of study, a maximum period of two years is envisaged adequate.
Follow-up activities are essential to any study to ensure
that there is continuity of activities. Therefore, Malawi
envisages that the results of this country study will be
incorporated in the various environmental management plans. The
infrastructure and skills acquired will be useful in planning
and management of future environmental projects. Some results of
this study will be published in scientific publications in local
and international journals, and local newspapers in both English
and local languages to sensitize policymakers, the public, etc.
Other activities will include holding a national workshop to
discuss results of the country study.
Ansell, W.H.F. (1989). Mammals of Malawi. Part II.
Nyala 13, 1&2: 41-65.
Benson, C.W. and Benson, C.M. (1977). The Birds of Malawi.
Montfort Press, Blantyre. 263 pp.
Clarke, J.E. (1983). Principal Master Plan for National Parks
and Wildlife Management. DNPW, Lilongwe. pp 112.
Desanker, P.V. and Prentice, I.C. (1994). MIOMBO - a vegetation
dynamics model for the miombo woodlands of Zambezian Africa.
Forest Ecology and Management 69: 87-95.
McNeely, J.A. (1992). The contributions of protected areas
to sustaining society. In Plenary Sessions and Symposium Papers.
IVth World Congress on national parks and protected areas. IUCN. pp 1-6.
Millsap, B.A. Gore J.A. Runde, D.E., and Cerulean, S.I. (1990).
Setting Priorities for the Conservation of Fish and
Wildlife Species in Florida. Wildl. Monogr. 111, 1-57.
Mkanda, F. X. (1991). Possible solutions for the furtherance
of positive public attitudes toward national parks and game
reserves in Malawi. Nyala 15 (1): 25-37.
Moyo, S. O'keefe, P. and Sill, M. (1993). The Southern
African Environment; Profiles of the SADC Countries.
Earthscan Publications Ltd., London. Ch. 4.
Myers, N. (1994). Eco-refugees: a crisis in the making.
People & the Planet, Vol. 3, 4: 6-9.
Ominde, S.H. and Juma, C. (1991). Introduction. In A Change
in the Weather; African Perspectives on Climatic Change.
(S.H. Ominde and C. Juma eds.) pp 3-12. ACTS Press, Nairobi, Kenya.
Ottichilo, W.K. Kinuthia, J.H. Ratego, P.O., and Nasubo, G. (1991).
Weathering the Storm; Climate Change and Investment in Kenya, p 1.
ACTS Press, Nairobi, Kenya.
Price, M.F. (1991). Societal aspects of climate change.
Society and Natural Resources Vol. 4: 315-317.
Shaxson, T.F. (1977). A Map of the Distribution of Major
Biotic Communities in Malawi. Soc. of Malawi J. (30): 35-48.
Shire Valley Agricultural Development Program (1975) An Atlas
of the Shire Valley, p. Blantyre: Department of Surveys.
Stewart, M.M. (1967). Amphibians of Malawi. State University
of New York Press, New York, USA.
Sweeney, R.C.H. (1966). Animal Life in Malawi, Vol II, Vertebrates.
Institute for the Publication of Textbooks, Belgrade, Yugoslavia,
v + 212 pp.
U.S. Country Studies Program (1994). Guidance for
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Version 1.0. pp 2-1,
Washington DC, U.S.A.
Mexico: Emission Inventory,
Mitigation Scenarios, and Vulnerability
Mexico Country Studies Project Team
SUMMARY: Mexico's Country Study comprises analyses in three major
areas: Inventory of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases; Scenarios, both
physical and of emissions of GHG; and a Study of Vulnerability of
the Country to Global Climate Change.
The project intends to provide support and information to
policymakers so that strategies can be redirected to face the
effects of Climate Change. These analyses are intended to show the
possible impacts on different productive activities and resources,
and the new alternatives and challenges that Mexico's development
will confront with respect to their corresponding emissions of GHG.
In the area of inventories, it was found that Mexico emits about
85.4 x 10 to the sixth power MTC (metric tons) of carbon due to
burning of fossil fuels. The methane emissions coming from urban
waste disposal sites amount to 385.9 x 10 to the third power MT per
year. Methane from agriculture and livestock amounts to 35,000 MT
and 1.804 x ten to the sixth power MT respectively, showing a very
small contribution due to rice cultivation. The contribution to the
emissions due to land use change varies from 49 to 129.3 million
tones of CO<2> depending on the use of a low or high rate of
deforestation. The estimations for fugitive emissions of methane
from the oil industry vary from 435 x 10 to the fifth power MT to
1.07 x 10 to the sixth power MT, depending on the use of low and
high emissions factors, respectively.
In the area of physical scenarios, different GCMs have been used
to produce maps of temperature and precipitation under the
assumption of CO<2> doubling. An effort is being made to obtain
results for regional scenarios using GCMs.
In the area of emission scenarios, several numerical experiments
have been carried out using "bottom up" and "top down" models and
future projections of land use change. Even when structural changes
are introduced in the energy sector, all the possibile and probable
scenarios lead to an increase in the consumption of energy and an
increase in the emissions of GHG. This result is mainly due to a
certain inertia in the economic structure. The increase in emissions
of GHG is due to the assumption of continuous growth of the
industrial, agricultural, and economic activity of the country.
Mexico has followed a tradition of active participation
in international forums in which topics related to the
environment and the climate are discussed. For several years, it
has made efforts to coordinate studies aimed at understanding
the causes of environmental problems, particularly those related
to global climatic changes and their possible societal impact,
in order to be better prepared to cope with them in the future.
These organizational efforts have contributed to
increase Mexico's participation in international symposiums.
However, we have had difficulties, especially related to
financial support. Because of these financial constraints, the
U.S. Country Studies Program was welcomed with enthusiasm, and
Mexico presented the project titled "Country Study: Mexico,"
which was later approved.
This project represents an ambitious plan whose objective is to
understand what impact climate changes may have on human activities and
to provide the basis for the delineation of national strategies, which
must integrate economic issues with climate-environmental policies.
The project's main objectives are:
-- To provide the Mexican government with a solid basis for
the elaboration of strategies and policies in response to the
impacts of climate changes. The socioeconomic implications of
these changes will be analyzed.
-- To provide the Mexican government with an ample base for
the adoption of measures related to adaptation and mitigation.
-- To establish a foundation to be updated to meet
the commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate
-- To assist the government in the adoption of
measures intended to restore the environment, in the
understanding that what is good for the environment now, is good
for the protection of the atmosphere and the climate.
-- To provide technical support. This facilitates the
Mexican government participation in international forums, such
the conferences organized by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, and
other international organizations such as the Interamerican
Institute on Climate Change.
The project focuses on three major areas:
-- The preparation of an inventory of greenhouse gases.
This work will include accounting of sources and sinks.
Special attention will be given to reforestation as a mitigating
-- Development of climate change scenarios at a global, regional,
and local level, as well as scenarios for the emission of
greenhouse gases. This area of study will also include the
study of the economic implications of different technology
and policy options.
-- The enhancement of previous studies of the country's
vulnerability to climate change in certain key areas.
The present document describes in a general way the results
obtained for the different areas of the study.
The amount of CO<2> released to the atmosphere via consumption
of fossil fuels by industry and by the energy production
process depends on the quantity of fuel that is consumed and on
the actual carbon content of the fuel consumed. The Rio de
Janeiro Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates that
each country must develop national strategies for the reduction
of CO<2> emissions and that these strategies must be based on
precise knowledge of the country's emission inventory.
Data necessary to determine CO<2> emissions include:
-- Apparent consumption of fossil fuels by type of fuel
-- Average coefficient of carbon emission for each fuel,
and total carbon potentially emitted
-- Carbon sequestered for long periods of time in
-- Quantity of nonoxidized carbon
-- Other activities which generate CO<2>
In order to estimate CO<2> emissions, we used national
emission factors along with the OECD/IPCC methodology, and
production and consumption data from the National Energy Balance
for 1990. The estimate of carbon emission comes from a mass
evaluation where: According to the OECD/IPCC methodology (IPVV,
1995), energy produced by the combustion of firewood and bagasse
must not be included in these estimates. Because of this, the
values for CO<2> emissions will have to be subtracted from the
Based on the National Energy Balances, the energy
sector in Mexico produces 93,251,375.4 Metric Tons of Carbon,
equivalent to: 341,921,658.7 Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide. The
cement industry accounts for 13,420,290 Metric Tons of Carbon
Dioxide. Total emissions are 96,911,079.4 Metric Tons of
Carbon, equivalent to 355,341,448.7 Metric Tons of Carbon
Dioxide. Subtracting CO<2> originating from the combustion of
firewood and bagasse, we are left with a total of 85,368,695.2
Metric Tons of Carbon and 313,018,540 Metric Tons of Carbon
IN SANITARY LANDFILLS
The results are obtained by processing information on
the characteristics of different types of waste by region, in
order to determine the quantities of methane generated at each
of these sources. The difference between the regions is small,
with the exception of the Metropolitan Zone of Mexico City
(Federal District), which exhibits a larger difference. This
fact enables us, as a first approximation, to divide the country
into two regions: the Federal District and the rest of the
The figures for the methane emissions by ton of waste
are computed for the Federal District and for the rest of the
country as an average of the four remaining regions. With these
values in hand, we were able to estimate total methane emissions
at 385,900 tons per year.
METHANE EMISSIONS ORIGINATING FROM
LIVESTOCK'S ENTERIC FERMENTATION
AND WASTE, AND FROM THE CULTIVATION
OF RICE FOR 1990
In order to estimate methane emissions from livestock waste
and enteric fermentation and from rice cultivation for 1990,
we followed the methodology proposed by IPCC (1993). We based
our calculation on information obtained on the existence of
livestock by climatic region and on the corresponding emission
factors. Due to the shortage of information, we set out working
hypotheses, such as for a given percentage of surface area in a
particular climate for a particular state, there corresponds
certain number of livestock. Furthermore, bovine cattle waste
emission factors were estimated from a functional relationship
between the ingested energy for each animal and its body mass
(both factors were established on the basis of a large wealth of
data for developing countries that the IPCC has published). The
emission factors, both for waste and enteric fermentation, were
taken from IPCC manuals. As for methane emissions from rice
cultivation, we based our calculations on information related to
number of hectares cultivated with irrigation and on flooding
conditions and corresponding to cultivation periods.
Emissions Originating from Change of Soil Usage
The first point to be noted is that some classifications of
the types of vegetation in Mexico had to be modified due to the
fact that these do not agree with the ones put forth in
the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change (IPCC, 1993). We suggest that temperate forests should
include the following types of vegetation: latifoliated,
coniferous, coniferous-latifoliated, and mesophyll forest.
Similarly, tropical forests are classified as high, medium, and
low. Open forests encompass natural protected areas and degraded
forests including managed and unmanaged forests. Since there is
no information in Mexico on undisturbed and logged forests,
we assume that the protected areas belong to the open
forest category and all the rest to the logged forests
category depending upon each subtype of vegetation.
The forested surface areas in Mexico were categorized by
State, ecosystem, and type of vegetation, based on data from
the National Forest Inventory of Great Vision of 1992, published
by the Department of Agriculture and Hydraulic Resources.
The real forested area for 1990 was equivalent to 133,740 Kha.
On the basis of this fact, the surface area was delineated by
type and subtype of vegetation according to its management. It
should be noted that the forested area that is in very damaged
condition totals 3,548 Kha. These areas are not taken into
account since they cannot be recovered.
In order to estimate emissions from the submodule "felling
of forests--CO<2> release originating from biomass burning, in situ
and outside," we took into account high and low deforestation
rates. In 1990 a total of 370,000 ha. were deforested, observing
a greater cutting for tropical forests than for forests and
arid zones. The present study works with a high rate of
deforestation, and arrives to a total estimate of 767,186 ha. It
should also be noted that there are other reports in which
higher deforestation rates are mentioned. Toledo (1989)
estimates an annual deforestation rate of 1,500,000 ha.
Mexico, however, lacks detailed information on the total
biomass area for the different types of vegetation. Estimates
are computed based on commercial biomass inventories, using
expansion factors. If we estimate the biomass area by type of
forest prior to deforestation, the biomass values--after
deforestation--would be the ones put forth by IPCC. After
deforestation, the biomass depends critically on the type of use
given to the deforested area. For example, tropical forests are
more affected because of extensive cattle rearing, whereas fires
are the most important cause of deforestation in temperate
If we use a low deforestation rate, our estimate for
carbon release equals 13,365 Gg and 49,005 Gg of CO<2>. If we use
a high rate, our estimate would equal 35,260 Gg of Carbon and
129,290 Gg of CO<2>. The aforementioned results are preliminary
since we are currently working on generating our own data for
the portion of burned biomass, for combustion efficiency, and
for carbon content in the burned biomass.
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY EMISSIONS
In order to estimate emissions from the petroleum industry,
we used the IPCC methodology to calculate fugitive methane
emissions from natural gas and petroleum systems (IPCC, 1993a).
"Tier 1" is the first level of detail used for the estimation of
these emissions. We use average emission factors based on
production. The activity levels were obtained from the National
Energy Balance for 1990 (National Energy Balance, 1991). Emission
factors appear in the reference manuals for the different regions.
In the case of Mexico, the greatest uncertainty in terms
of methodology is its regional definition. Mexico is classified
as an "Other Petroleum Exporting Country," since it
consumes approximately 94 percent of the natural gas produced
globally. After consulting with the technical advisors from the
firm ICF, it was decided to classify Mexico as member of "Rest
of the World Region." The emission factors can be found under
this category on Table 1-47 of the Reference Manual. The methane
emission estimates, for high and low emission coefficients, are
435 and 1069Gg, respectively.
The National Energy Balance reports a total gas production
of 1640PJ and a total consumption of 1555PJ, including
internal consumption within the petroleum industry. The
difference of 85PJ is equivalent to 1703Gg of natural gas.
Considering that methane represents 50 percent of the weight of
the Mexican natural gas, the aforementioned 85PJ would be
equivalent to 851Gg of methane. This quantity is energy not used
and lost in transformations and ventings, and represents by
itself a very small quantity of methane emissions from the
petroleum industry. The high emission estimates are considered
as the most representative of the "Tier 1" of the methodology.
According to "Tier 1," the main sources of fugitive emissions
are venting and flaring, originating from petroleum and natural
gas production, from emissions in the processing, transportation
and distribution of natural gas, and from leakages in industrial
and powerplants. On the other hand, emissions which resulting
from the transportation, storage, and refining of crude
petroleum, from maintenance of production facilities for oil and
gas, and from leakages in the commercial and industrial sectors,
are considered marginal.
The only objective way to build future climatic scenarios for
the study of the impacts of Global Climate Change on human
activities is by using simulation models. The General
Circulation Models or GCMs are the best in this area. The
working criteria adopted was the use of simulations generated
under the assumption that carbon dioxide is doubled. This event
will occur sometime in the future depending upon the intensity
of anthropogenic emissions of gases which have a greenhouse
In order to create future scenarios, we used the methodology
put forward by the IPCC and discussed in "U.S. Country
Studies Program's Training Workshop on Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessments" in Washington D.C., in February of 1994.
This process consists of adding the temperature increments
given by the models, to the climate conditions of the places or
regions to be studied. For the central region of Mexico, we used
the predictions of GFDLR30 and of the Canadian Climate Model.
And, by way of comparison, we have also used the thermodynamic
climate model developed by the Center for Atmospheric Sciences
of the University of Mexico.
For base scenarios, we used average temperatures and precipitation
data of 23 points, scattered in a grid of 2.5 x 2.5o. These data are
monthly averages taken from a record extending over 30 years
(1941 to 1970).
For future scenarios, we operated with the GRIDS package
(Kentery Dotty, 1994) and, by either interpolation or use of the
nearest data point provided by the GCM, we arrived at estimates
of temperature and precipitation increments for the 23
locations. This material was presented in a technical report No.
1 in the form of tables, maps, and diskettes.
With the intention of validating the models, we proceeded
to compare its simulations for 1 x CO<2> with the climate
values obtained and, in so doing, we observed important
differences when the comparisons were conducted site by site.
The comparisons were also conducted by taking averages of points
contained in latitude bands. This comparison was more favorable
and enabled us to affirm that for the northern region the
results were similar for the three models employed. Although the
magnitudes are different for the central and southern regions,
the GFDL model reproduces better the seasonal changes. It should
be noted that temperature compared to precipitation exhibits
greater cohesion--the GFDL model predicts greater precipitation
for an extensive region centered in the middle portion of
Mexico, while CCCM forecasts exactly the opposite.
Due to the fact that the distance between the grid points of
the models is several hundreds of kilometers (approximately 400
kms), the regional characteristics are not reproduced. In order
to solve this problem, we are in the process of studying
the adjustments needed to obtain simulations at a regional and
even local level, either by nesting regional climate models into
GCMs or by regionalizing GCM simulations with empirical
BOTTOM UP SCENARIOS
In a recent study, Sathaye and Ketoff (1991) found that
Mexico, in 1987, was the third largest carbon emitter by
production and energy use in the developing world, after India
and China. Between 1987 and 1991, the production of primary
energy grew by 4 percent while the contribution from fossil
fuels remained stable at around 92 percent (SEMIP, 1992), a fact
that suggests that carbon emissions have been increasing.
The methodology for "bottom up" or end-use analysis focuses
on energy conservation. This analysis is put forward as
an alternative to the traditional approach which employs
Gross Domestic Product, income, and price as economic variables
which explain the demand for energy.
This approach steers the analysis toward the demand for
energy and not toward its aggregate supply. Energy consumption
is disaggregated for the different sectors, and sums
different end-uses from each sector. This procedure incorporates
structural demands as explicit elements and allows for the
accounting of energy needs in relation to physical and economic
For the elaboration of future energy consumption scenarios
and for the quantitative analysis of atmospheric emissions,
different models have been developed--most notably, the STAIR model.
This model, the name of which is formed by the five sectors which
consume energy: services, transportation, agricultural, industrial,
and residential, is basically an accounting framework based on the
methodology by end uses. It makes possible the study of impacts of
different energy policies on the use of energy as well as in the
emissions of greenhouse gases (Ketoff, Sathaye, 1991).
Information on energy supply, transformation, and demand
for Mexico is to be found in the energy balances (1965-90) of
the Secretary of Mines, Energy and Semi-State Industry (SEMIP),
and in the reports from OLADE (Latin American Energy
Organization). Additional information may be found in the
records of PEMEX, of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE),
and in the publications from the National Institute for
Statistics, Geography and Data Processing (INEGI) on economic
indicators and population census.
Emission factors represent the average behavior of a similar set
of technologies and may fluctuate according to: type of fuel,
technology, how old the technology in question is, and the conditions
under which it is operated and maintained.
Scenarios of Social and Economic Development
Three different scenarios were elaborated for the period
from 1990 to 2025. Gross Domestic Product was assumed to grow at
an average annual rate of 4 percent, population at 1.8 percent.
The energy consumption structures remaining stable for each
sector, as well as the emission factors.
In scenario A, a society that wastes its natural resources
is portrayed, corresponding with the current national trend. By
the year 2025, a per capita annual consumption of 350GJ would
have been reached, equivalent to the consumption of the United
States in 1982.
In scenario B, a society that aims at conserving its resources
is depicted, in correspondence with the intentions of the
current energy policy. By the year 2025, a per capita annual
consumption of 200GJ would have been reached, equal to the
consumption exhibited by Germany in 1982.
In scenario C, a society which has sustainable growth is
reached, requiring changes in the social and industrial
structure, as well as giving special attention to the
environment. By the year 2025 a per capita annual consumption of
100GJ would have been reached, slightly lower than that of Japan
For the transportation sector, the results obtained show
that gasoline is the main producer of CO<2>, followed by
diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, and LP gas. The increase of
emissions follows the pattern for fuel consumption. Demand for
gasoline grows exponentially, but demand for diesel throughout
the last decade stays the same, while for other fuels it is
almost insignificant. As to the industrial sector, NO appears
as the main contaminant, followed by SO, particles, HC and CO.
The amounts of NO, SO and HC emitted has increased
consistently in the last 25 years, whereas the quantity of
particulates and CO emitted has remained constant, by energy
unit consumed by inhabitant. The fuel consumption pattern
associated with this emissions evolution implies that the demand
for petroleum products and natural gas has increased, while for
bagasse and coke it has remained constant.
TOP DOWN SCENARIOS
Projects For Energy Demand
Projections for energy demand for economic sectors and
subsectors and by fuels are being elaborated based on an energy
demand model developed in Mexico. The results obtained to date
are preliminary, and we expect that in the following months
other preliminary results may be discussed for the areas
of environmental impact, technology, active measures, and
problems encountered for the efficient use of technology.
The main environmental problems (local and global) originating from
the energy system come from the great dependence on hydrocarbons,
carbon, and wood burning; from the characteristics of refined crude
oil, 31 percent of which is heavy crude, with an average of 3.3 percent
sulphur content; from the great urban agglomerations which are still
growing, headed by the metropolitan area of Mexico City (and whose
transportation system is insufficient); from the absence of
norms for the control of emissions from the energy sector,
transportation, and the industry in general; and from the
insufficient use of energy.
Energy Demand Model
The objective of this model is to simulate primary energy
demand for Mexico. It is a "top-down" model, where the
exogenous parameters are economic (GDP) and demographic
(population growth). The economy is subdivided in sectors and
subsectors, in analysis of historical tendencies for individual
participation in energy consumption by source--fuel and
electricity--and by nature of the emission--gas combustion,
hydrocarbons, and particles. In this way, one may project the
tendencies for individual sector or subsectors and for fuels,
and one may resort to alternative analyses for estimating the impact
of different energy policies and corresponding environmental problems
(prices, conservation, change of fuels, etc.)
Some of the main results show that there is a certain inertia
in the economic structure and in the demand for energy, even
with the adoption of policies that aim at introducing
structural reforms. Under the first scenario, the energy sector,
together with the electrical subsector (CFE), exhibit growth;
however, in the high growth scenario, PEMEX exhibits similar
increments. It is very important to note that the reference
scenario works with a GDP growth rate of 5 percent and that
energy intensity is residential.
However, there are substantial changes within subsectors of
a particular sector. In the industrial sector, the participation
of basic petrochemicals will increase by 50 percent by the year
2000 and will triple by the year 2010. The chemical industry
will also grow, doubling its participation by the year 2010,
just like that of fertilizers, which, in addition, will
quadruple by the year 2020.
The total energy consumption increases by 38 percent over
the current level by the year 2000, by 100 percent by the year
2010, and by 500 percent by the year 2024. This implies an
annual growth of 3.8 percent for the whole period: in the
short term--until year 2000--the growth would equal 4.4
percent, decreasing thereafter. The corresponding quantities for
GNP are 31, 85, and 421 percent, respectively. The tendencies
shown are on the increase for energy intensity.
The scenario without changes (business-as-usual) works with a
GDP growth rate of 3.5 percent and with constant energy
intensity. The results show that total energy demand will
increase from 1,499 x 10 to the 12 power Kcal in 1992 to
3,124 x 10 to the 12 power in 2010, which would imply an annual
growth rate of 4.1 percent. The generation of nuclear electricity
(CFE)--geothermic and hydro--will not increase as projected
(66 percent by the year 2000). So part of the electricity assigned
to this area, will in due course be generated by fossil fuels;
environmental problems will favor the use of natural gas. Nuclear
installed capacity will grow to 1,300MW by next year. CFE plans
contemplates an increase in generating capacity of 25 percent in geo
and thermal power and 38 percent in hydro power by the year 2000.
In low-growth-rate scenarios, with a GDP growth rate of
2.0 percent and with constant energy intensity, we find
the following: total energy demand goes from
1,461 x 10 to the 12 power Kcal in 1992 to
2,385 x 10 to the 12 power Kcal in 2010, a fact that implies an
annual growth rate of 2.8 percent.
SCENARIOS FROM CHANGE IN SOIL USAGE
Carbon Absorption and Emissions in Mexico's Forests The research
was conducted by a working group, in coordination with the work
groups for the areas of inventories and vulnerability. We have
revised the methodologies used for scenarios of gas emission
from the forested sector. Other possible scenarios to be
developed were identified. The study has proceeded with the
elaboration of a reference scenario and with the preliminary
preparation of the databases.
To the date, we obtained the following results: a
bibliographic base with more than 80 files, sorted
alphabetically and by topic (the same which is available at the
Ecological Center of the UNAM); the publication of an article in
the foremost Country Study Workshop; and the improvement of a
data base with basic biophysical parameters for carbon emission
and sequestration due to deforestation, using the model CO-PATH.
This data base, includes estimation of gross, net, immediate,
and long-term carbon emissions for the four types of closed
forests in the country: temperate coniferous forests, oak
forests, humid, and dry tropical forests. We also include
biophysical and economic parameters for the options of carbon
absorption for the conservation options for protected natural
areas, forests, and native tropical forests management.
The analysis also addresses efficient use of
firewood, agroforestry, and commercial and noncommercial
reforestation plantations (including bioenergy projects). We
initiated the elaboration of a data base, for the calculation of
future scenarios for carbon emissions and absorption. The data
base includes basic parameters on forest management and
emissions by type of forest (taken from the previous data bases)
and combines them with estimates for the evolution of the
population, of the GDP, forest products demand and other
In order to design basic parameters for the reference
alternative scenarios, we consulted with experts responsible for
the areas of inventories and vulnerability. In the specific case
of the forested sector, we put forth a reference scenario or a
scenario of tendencies which would incorporate long-term
emissions resulting from a continuation of historical
deforestation rates (1980-1990).
Two policy scenarios--moderate and accelerated--will also
be developed. Using 1990 as the base year, the projections will
be provided for years 2025 and 2100.
Estimation of Greenhouse Emissions and Sinks. Final Report
from the OECD Experts Meeting, 18-21 February, 1991.
National Energy Balance, 1990-1991, SEMIP.
Preliminary Inventory of Greenhouse Effect Gases for Mexico, 1988.
INE/SEDESOL. Note: includes software developed in FORTRAN
for the elaboration of the inventory.
"XI GENERAL POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS, 1990";
National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Data Processing;
INEGI, July of 1990, Mexico.
"Percentage Composition of Municipal Solid Residues by Zones";
General Directorship for the Control and Prevention
of Environmental Contamination, Operation directorship, SEDUE, 1988.
"Generation of Solid Residues by Zone", General Directorship
for the Control and Prevention of Environmental Contamination,
Operation directorship, SEDUE, 1988.
"Executive Summary on Technical Viability for Usage of
Biogas Generated in the Final Disposal Sites for Municipal
Solid Residues in the Federal District"; General Secretary for
Public Works; General Directorship of Urban Services,
Technical Directorship of Solid Waste; DDF, October 1990,
Mexico, Fed. District.
IEE/10/14/3128/i/03/P. " Laboratory Tests of the Samples
Obtained in the Probing of the Santa Cruz Meyehualco and Santa
Fe sites", "Evaluation of the Feasibility for Generation of
Electricity with Biogas from the Landfills of Urban Solid
Waste": IIE, A.P. 475, Cuernava, Mor. Mexico, October 1991.
"Methane Emissions Inventory by Agricultural Activities in Mexico";
Gonzalez Avalos, E., Ruiz, L.G., Gay, C.: in Memoirs of Annual Meeting
of University Program for the Environment (PUMA,1992).
"Agricultural, Livestock and Common Grazing Land Census,
1981. General Summary", Mexico, INEGI, 1981.
"Workbook for Inventories of Greenhouse Effect Gases", Vol. 2, IPCC.
"First National Forestal Inventory", Subsecretaryship for Forestry,
SARH, Mexico 1988.
SEMIP (1991) National Energy Balance 1990.
Mexico\Vulnerability Garcia E. 1988. Modifications to Koppen's
Climatic Classification System, Fourth Edition. 217 p.
Rzedowski, J. 1992. Potential Vegetation Chart. National Atlas
of Mexico, Biogeography Section IV.8.2 Scale 1:4,000,000.
Institute of Geography-UNAM
National Commission for Energy Saving, 1992. Report.
CONAE-SEMIP. Mexico, Fed. District. Mexico.
Environmental Protection Agency, 1990. Report.
"Sustainable use of fuelwood in Rural Mexico", Masera O.;
CONAE-SEMIP. Mexico, Federal District, 1993.
"National Energy Balance". Secretaryship of Energy, Mines
and Semi-state industries. SEMIP, 1991.
[END OF SECTION 3]
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