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U.S. Department of State
March 1995 Interim Report on Climate Change Country Studies
Oceans and International Environmental & Scientific Affairs

[SECTION 1 OF 4]



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        Interim Report on Climate Change Country Studies

U.S. Country Studies Program
March 1995
DOE/PO-0032

Editors:
Cecilia Ramos-Mane, Uruguay National Commissionon Global Change
Ron Benioff, U.S. Country Studies Program

U.S. Country Studies Program
Participating U.S. Agencies:
Environmental Protection Agency
Department of Energy
Agency for International Development
Department of State
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Department of Agriculture
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Science Foundation
Department of the Interior
Department of Health and Human Services


The information presented here covers preliminary work carried
out by the countries and has not necessarily been endorsed either
by the respective Governments or the U.S. Government.


U.S. Country Studies Program, PO-63
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, DC  20585

(202)426-1628 (phone)
(202)426-1540 (fax)
email: csmt@igc.apc.org


Editor's Note:  Numbers and letters contained withtin "<" and ">" marks
    represent subtext in scientific formulas.  Numbers between
    "/" and "/" represent footnotes.  Footnotes by the names of authors
    are located just beneath the names.  Footnotes contained within the
    text can be found at the end of each chapter.


                             CONTENTS

Bolivia: A Methodology for Emissions Inventory and Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment
--  Bolivia Country Study Project Team

Central America: Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change for
the Water, Coastal,and Agricultural Resources    
--  Central America Country Studies Project Team

China: Studies Addressing Global Climate Change
--  Guo Yuan, Institute of Nuclear Technology, Tsinghua University,
    Beijing, P.R. China
--  Lin Erda, Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of
    Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China
--  Liu Zhiping, Energy Research Institute, State Planning Commission
    and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China

The Czech Republic: Preliminary Results of Country Study on
Climate Change
--  RNDr. Bedrich Moldan et al., National Climate Program of the
    Czech Republic

Egypt: Inventory and Mitigation Options, and Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment
--  Dr. Mohamed El-Raey, Dean, Institute of Graduate Studies &
    Research, Alexandria University
--  Dr. Dia H.El-Quosy, Director, Water Management Research
    Institute, National Water Research Center
--  Dr. Mahmoud El-Shaer, Professor & Head of Agron. Dept., Cairo
    University 
--  Dr. Osama A.El Kholy, Senior Advisor, Egyptian Environmental
    Affairs Agency (Project Manager)
--  Eng. Ayat Soliman, Assistant to Project Manager, Egyptian
    Environmental Affairs Agency

Estonia: Greenhouse Gas Emissions
--  J.M. Punning, M. Mandre, M. Ilomets, A. Karindi, Institute of
    Ecology, Estonian Academy of Sciences
--  A. Martins, Institute of Energy Research, Estonian Academy of
    Sciences
--  H. Roostalu, Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry,
    Estonian Agricultural University

Ethiopia: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sources
--  Asress Wolde Giorgis, Ethiopian Energy Authority

Kazakhstan: Overall Approaches and Preliminary Results from
Country Study  
--  Sergei Kavalerchik, Asya Fisher, Main Administration for
    Hydrometeorology at the Cabinet of Ministry of the 
    Republic of Kazakhstan
--  Vsevolod Golubtsov, Edward Monocrovich, Olga Pilifosova, Irene
    Yeserkepova, Paishan Kozhahmetov, Lubov Lebed, Olga Glumova, Ivan
    Skotselyas, Valery Lee, Svetlana Dolgih, Zoja Korneeva, Svetlana
    Mizina, Dmitriy Danchuk, Kazakh Scientific-Research
    Hydrometeorological Institute 
--  Ervin Gossen, Alexei Startsev, Academy of Agricultural Sciences
--  Maria Amirhanova, State Statistical Committee
--  Nina Inosemtseva, Georgy Papafanasopulo, Ministry of Energy and
    Fuel Resources
--  Boris Akimov, Valentin Matveev, Ministry of Industry
    Vladimir Medvedev, Alshin Ahmedzhanov, Ministry of the Environment

Malawi: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Assessment of Climate Change
Vulnerability  
--  Francis X. Mkanda1 et al., Department of National Parks and
    Wildlife

Mexico: Emissions Inventory, Mitigation Scenarios, and
Vulnerability and Adaptation  
--  Mexico Country Studies Project Team

Mongolia: Preliminary 1990 Greenhouse Gas Inventory
--  D. Dagvadorj and M. Munkh-tsetseg, Hydrometeorological Research
    Institute, Ministry for Nature and the Environment, Mongolia

Peru: Emissions Inventory for Energy and Nonenergy Sectors
--  Jorge Ruiz Botto, Jorge Ponce Urquiza, Cesar Pizarro Castro, Juan
    Avila Lopez, Ivan Llamas Montoya, Elizabeth Culqui Diaz,
    Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria (UNI), (Facultad de Ingenieria
    Ambiental) and Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear (IPEN),
    Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI)

Uruguay: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Methods for Coastal Resources and Agriculture
--  Annie Hareau, Ral Hofstadter, Cecilia Ramos-Mane, and Andres A.
    Saizar, Uruguay Climate Change Country Study Team, Comision
    Nacional sobre el Cambio Global, Montevideo, Uruguay

Venezuela: Preliminary National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
--  Martha Perdomo, Nora Pereira, Yamil Bonduki, Ministry of
    Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, Ministry of Energy
    and Mines

Zimbabwe: Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production and Adaptive
Measures for the Agricultural Sector
--  C. H. Matarira, Scientific and Industrial Research and
    Development Centre (SIRDC)
--  J. M. Makadho, Agritex 
--  F. C. Mwamuka, SIRDC




                               FOREWORD

This report contains papers from fourteen countries and a
Central American organization representing seven countries in a
regional study. The participating countries have all signed the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
     The Convention's commitments for all Parties include to
develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the
Conference of the Parties, national inventories of anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases
(GHG), using comparable methodologies. The Convention also
commits parties to formulate, and implement national programs
containing measures to mitigate climate change and to help
developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse
effects of climate change.
     The papers in this report describe these countries' efforts
to address their commitments by preparing inventories of GHG
emissions, evaluating mitigation options, and assessing climate
change vulnerability and adaptation strategies. These assessments
have been conducted within the framework of the U.S. Country
Studies Program and the Global Environmental Fund/United Nations
Environmental Programme (GEF/UNEP) Case Studies.
     The Convention commits all developed country Parties to take all
practicable steps to promote, facilitate and finance the transfer of,
or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to
developing country Parties, and to provide new and additional financial
resources needed by developing countries in complying with their
obligations.
     We believe that the U.S. Country Study Program is helping
the participating countries in complying with the commitments of
the UNFCCC. Even though the established time for developing
countries to fulfill their commitments is within three years from
the entry of force of the Convention, the current studies give
countries a chance to validate initial data and conduct
additional research on national or regional emission factors and
on mitigation and adaptation measures to submit an improved
communication by the deadline. The training of experts at
technical workshops and through continuous technical assistance
has helped to improve theunderstanding of the scientific base of
climate change issues and to strengthen endogenous capacity.
     The U.S. Country Studies Program and similar programs
supported by other donors have proven to be of paramount
importance in helping the participating countries to outline
their national plans to mitigate or reduce GHG emissions and also
to develop measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Preparation of these national plans must be accompanied by
education of the people and dissemination of country study
results as the only effective way to solve the important problem
of climate change.

--  Martha Perdomo, Venezuela



                           EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report documents significant achievements made by 21 of
the  55 countries that are conducting climate change country
studies  with support from the U.S. Country Studies Program. Some
of the  work reported by these countries was also supported by
other  donors. The papers from these countries discuss methods
and  results for inventories of sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases,  assessments of climate change vulnerability and
adaptive  responses, and evaluations of mitigation options to
reduce net  emissions of greenhouse gases. In several cases, the
papers  discuss the preparation of national communications and
public  education and outreach activities. The following
countries  contributed papers for this report:

Bolivia                  Malawi
China                    Mexico
Czech Republic           Mongolia
Egypt                    Peru
Estonia                  Uruguay
Ethiopia                 Venezuela
Kazakhstan               Zimbabwe

     Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,  
Nicaragua, and Panama are working together on a Central  
American regional study.

     Key findings and conclusions related to climate change policy,
science, and capacity building include:

                                 POLICY

--  Many developing countries and countries with economies in
transition have made significant progress with their studies.
These studies are helping countries address their commitments
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and increasing support for the UNFCCC.

--   Programs to support climate change country studies by
various bilateral and multilateral donors are helping to fulfill
the UNFCCC's mandate for the provision of financial and technical
assistance from developed country parties to developing country
parties. By 1996, the U.S. Country Studies Program will have
helped 55 countries complete country studies that address their
obligations under the UNFCCC.

--  In many countries, the results of their studies are laying
the foundation for the development of national action plans and
national communications required under the UNFCCC. Developing
countries and countries with economies in transition are
considering a wide range of mitigation and adaptation measures
for inclusion in their national plans. 

                                 SCIENCE

--  The country studies completed by developing countries and
countries with economies in transition are making important
contributions to the state of scientific knowledge and global
understanding of climate change issues.

--  The experiences of the countries conducting country studies
have contributed to the development of commonly accepted,
transparent methodologies. Countries have tested the IPCC Draft
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 1994)
and are helping to identify possible improvements to these
guidelines. In addition, the studies are helping to develop
common methods and guidelines for vulnerability and adaptation
assessments and mitigation assessments. For instance, the
countries participating in the U.S. Country Study Program are
applying common vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation
assessment methods and have helped prepare methodological
handbooks for the program. These guidelines are in turn helping
to lay the foundation for handbooks in preparation by the IPCC.

--  For many developing countries and countries with economies
in transition, climate change could have dramatic impacts on
their economies and natural systems, with the potential in some
cases for rapid deterioration of the livelihood of citizens and
irreversible damage to ecosystems. Coastal, agricultural, water,
and forest resources, as well as biodiversity, are among the most
vulnerable systems. The risks of such damage can be reduced
through the adoption of anticipatory adaptation measures that are
flexible and will help deal both with current climate variability
and the potential impacts of climate change.

--  In many developing countries and countries with economies in
transition, measures are available for reducing net emissions of
greenhouse gases at little or no cost. Some countries have
already made significant progress in implementing such measures
and reducing their projected net emissions. For instance, the
Czech Republic has already implemented a series of legislative
and normative measures to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. 
In some cases, financial, technical, and institutional barriers
must be overcome before such mitigation measures can be
effectively implemented.

                         HUMAN AND INSTITUTIONAL
                           CAPACITY BUILDING

--  Building and maintaining human and institutional capacity
to  address climate change issues is an essential ingredient
for  successful completion of country studies and
strengthening support for the UNFCCC. Effective studies by
developing countries and countries with economies in transition
have established strong counterpart relationships between large
teams of national and international experts. Building from these
working  relationships, effective technical cooperation and
technology transfer is achieved through "hands-on" training
activities, transfer of assessment tools, workshops for countries
to share experiences, and ongoing technical cooperation during the
lifetime of the study. In the case of the U.S. Country Studies Program,
large teams of researchers in each country are receiving training and
technical support for the application of up to 30 different analytical
tools and methodologies.

--  Effective capacity building also requires countries to
involve a variety of governmental and non-governmental institutions
in the implementation of the study. The studies discussed in this
report are implemented by teams of officials and analysts from a
variety of governmental and non-governmental institutions operating
under the direction of inter-governmental steering committees. These
steering committees have responsibility for the formulation and
implementation of climate change policies.

--  Educating the public and governmental officials about climate
change issues is critical to developing and maintaining support for
climate change issues. Such educational and outreach activities should
be designed to be ongoing processes that are  integrated with other
current outreach activities.

**************************************

                            INTRODUCTION

The papers presented in this report describe interim results
and future activities of climate change country studies
supported by the U.S. Government. In a few cases work supported
by other donors is also reported here. The report contains
papers prepared by fourteen countries and a Central American
organization representing seven countries in a regional study.
The information presented here covers preliminary work carried
out by the countries and has not necessarily been endorsed
either by the respective Governments or the U.S. Government.

     The Framework Convention on Climate Change, which has been
signed  by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on parties
to the Convention to inventory national sources and sinks of
greenhouse gases (GHG) and to develop plans for responding to
climate change. To assist developing countries and countries
with economies in transition to meet this obligation, the
U.S. Government has committed $30 million to support climate
change country studies. Technical and financial support to
countries is provided through the U.S. Country Studies Program.

     The U.S. Country Studies Program has sponsored two rounds
of  studies. In October 1993, studies with 26 countries were
initiated and in October 1994, studies with an additional 29
countries began. Most of the studies have a two year duration The
countries submitting papers in time for inclusion in this interim
report include countries that are participating in both rounds of
the Program.

     The goals of the U.S. Country Studies Program are to:

--  Enhance the capabilities of countries and/or regions
to inventory their net emissions of greenhouse gases, assess
their vulnerabilities to climate change, and evaluate the
options available to them to mitigate and adapt to climate
change;

--  Support countries' efforts to establish a process
for developing and implementing national policies and measures
to deal with climate change over time; and

--  Develop data and information that can be used at
the national, regional, and global levels; assess current and
future trends in net anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases; and further national and international discussions of
climate change issues

Most of the studies that are being supported under this program
include three primary elements:

--  An inventory of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases;

--  An assessment of vulnerabilities to the impacts of
climate  change and an evaluation of options to adapt to these
potential  impacts; and

--  An evaluation of options to mitigate net emissions of
greenhouse gases.

Some studies also include public education and
outreach  activities and plans for developing national measures
and  strategies.

     The Program has established extensive technical cooperation
and  technology transfer between country researchers and
international experts. Technical support that is provided to the
countries includes the provision of guidance materials and
analytical tools, sponsorship of training workshops, site visits
and ongoing guidance from technical experts, and assistance in
interpreting and presenting results. The Program works in close
cooperation with other countries and international organizations
in the design and implementation of technical and financial
support activities.

     At the request of the participating countries, special
attention is being given to the preparation of synthesis
documents where countries can report their methodologies and
results. Such activities are considered vital to the success of
this cooperative effort. This report is the first of many
synthesis  publications that the Program will issue.



________________________________________________________________________

              Bolivia: A Methodology for Emissions Inventory
               and Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

                    Bolivia Country Study Project Team

________________________________________________________________________
   SUMMARY: The present work represents Bolivia's first effort
   under its country study that is being carried out with the
   assistance of the U.S. Country Studies Program. Its main
   objectives are to establish an inventory of greenhouse gases
   (GHG) produced in the energy and nonenergy sectors (i.e.,
   agriculture, biomass burning, deforestation, waste waters, and
   sanitary landfills). The study also evaluates the vulnerability
   and adaptability of the most significant national sectors
   exposed to climate change, and, finally, establishes the most
   appropriate means of mitigation (i.e., emission reduction) for
   Bolivia.
     This document presents an introduction to the inventory
   task that will be developed in Bolivia, as well as the
   ethodologies established for carrying out an inventory of GHG
   and a vulnerability and adaptation analysis. Preliminary results
   on the inventory of emissions are also presented.
________________________________________________________________________

                                 INTRODUCTION

The GHG inventory includes gases with direct greenhouse
effects  (CO<2>, CH<4>, N<2>O) as well as indirect effects (NO, CO,
NMVOC). The  estimation of emissions was carried out according to
the  Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC
1994)  and constitutes a first approximation that will be refined
and  brought to a conclusion during the period 1995-1996 as
the  Country Study is carried out.

     The vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) analysis presents
the objectives agreed upon, the methodologies to be utilized,
a description of the basic scenarios to be considered, and
the simulation models to be applied.

     The Ministry of Sustainable Development and the Environment
was created by means of Supreme Decree in 1993 with the objective of strengthening environmental management in Bolivia. The Framework Convention on Climate Change was ratified by the  Government of
Bolivia in July 1994 in accordance with the position it had adopted 
at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992.

    In August 1994, the Ministry of Sustainable Development,
acting through the National Bureau of Natural Resources and
the Environment, signed a Technical Assistance agreement with
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), acting through
the U.S. Country Studies Program, to carry out an "Inventory of
GHG Emissions and their Impact on Ecosystems" study with
the following objectives:

--  Inventory of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of anthropogenic
origin

--  Estimation of the vulnerability of susceptible sectors

--  Evaluation of technical options for adaptation

--  Evaluation of methodologies and options of mitigation
techniques

--  Identification of actions and strategies and definition of
activities including options for the implementation of policies
and measures

The organizational structure of the project will have three
basic levels: decisionmaking under the Ministry of
Sustainable Development and the Environment; operational
control, through the Coordination of the Climate Change Program;
and support, with instances of coordination among State,
academic, and private sector institutions.

Principal Characteristics of Bolivia

Bolivia is situated in the mid-west of the South
American  continent, between parallels 9o38' and 22o53' South
Latitude and  between meridians 57o25' and 69o38' West Longitude.
It is  bordered by Brazil, Peru, Chile, Argentina and Paraguay.
It has  no access to the sea. The country is divided into
Altiplano (high  plateau), valleys, and lowland plains. The
altitude varies from  4,000 m above sea level in the high plains
to 400 m in the  lowlands, with valleys varying in altitude from
1,000 to 2,000 m 
     The Andes mountains reach 6,000 to 7,000 m above sea level. Such
great ranges in altitude involve a variety of climates. The lowland
plains have a tropical climate, the valleys a moderate subtropical
climate, and the Altiplano has a moderately cold  climate with the
higher peaks covered by eternal snow.

     Bolivia has a rich biodiversity. The existence of a large
number of species may be cited: 250 classes of reptiles, 190
amphibious species, more than 200 species of fish, and some
20,000 species of plants.

     Bolivia has an area of 1.09 million sq. km., inhabited by
a population of 6.4 million (according to the 1992 census), with
a low population density of 5.8 persons/sq. km.

                                METHODS

Inventory Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Introduction
Since the 1980s, agricultural activity in Bolivia has had significant
increases due to the expansion and intensification of crop productivity.

     Utilization of energy for domestic purposes, transportation,
and industry, is a significant source of greenhouse gases.
Also, urban wastes, with inadequate systems for the final
disposal of waste and inadequate sanitation infrastructure,
contribute to the generation of greenhouse gases from human wastes.

     Forests cover 51.4 percent of the 1,098,000 sq. km. of
Bolivian territory. Humid tropical and subtropical forests
account for approximately 37 percent. Temperate and xerophytic
woodlands cover 14.4 percent. In recent years tropical and
subtropical forests have been subjected to a greater incidence
of deforestation in a process that varies in intensity in the
different regions (human intervention, clear cutting,livestock
raising and colonization). The Bolivian Amazon region, furthermore,
contains an area of 162,000 sq. km. of pasture land that are burned
over during the dry season for various reasons.

Objectives
The study has established the following objectives for the
emission inventory:

--  Implement an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions of
anthropogenic origin for the various human activities related to
agriculture and livestock raising, industry, energy and human
wastes.

--  To quantify greenhouse gas emissions originating in
deforestation and biomass burning.

--  Determine the appropriateness of the different methodologies
and indices generated for the inventory of greenhouse gases for
the various sectors.

--  Establish estimates of greenhouse gas emissions by sector.

Methodologies
For the estimation of greenhouse gases from the burning
of forests and pasture land, a selection will be made of coefficients of
emissions in accordance with the methodologies available, estimating
the types of gases that are generated by deforestation and the burning
of pasture land under the conditions in Bolivia. The methodologies
proposed by the IPCC will be utilized in their entirety, with some
factors of emission being adjusted to allow for the effects of altitude
and pressure. For agriculture and livestock, CH<4> emissions will be
estimated for the fermentation of animal excrement and the
decomposition process in flooded areas, and production of CO<2> will
be estimated due to biomass burning. Estimates will be made for the
overall emissions of CH<4>, CO<2>, and N<2>O due to different
energy uses, industrial activities, and such urban activities as
sanitary landfills and anaerobic sewage treatment facilities.

Preliminary Greenhouse Gases Emissions Results
A preliminary evaluation of the greenhouse gases inventory was
attempted, using the limited information available at the present moment
for the energy and agriculture sectors. Information is not yet available
on changes in land use, forestry, solvents, and the utilization of other
products, such as wastes (solid residues, waste waters, incineration).
Such inventory activities will be carried out in the near future.

     Table 1 presents a preliminary inventory. The purpose of
this preliminary inventory is to indicate the contribution of
the various activities with respect to the greenhouse effect.

     The inventory includes gases with direct effects (CO<2>,
CH<4>, N<2>O) as well as indirect effects (NO, CO, NMVOC). The
calculation of emissions was carried out using emission factors
from the IPCC guidelines and documents of national activities.
Possible future evolution of emissions is indicated by
+/0/- (increase/stable/decrease). Fuels originating in the
biomass sector are not included in the national CO<2> balance.
Figures 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 (5a and 5b) show emissions by sector
and by type of gas.

Discussion
From the partial and preliminary inventory presented, the
following observations can be made:

--  The principal sources of greenhouse gases are changes
in land use and the utilization of energy. Changes in land use
are principally related to the expansion of areas for
agricultural activities. Emissions in the energy sector are
related to the combustion of products originating in petroleum
and natural gas during both extraction and consumption. Natural
gas resulting from the extraction of petroleum is the principal
source of GHG  emissions.

--  Livestock production is another important source of
greenhouse gases as a result of the enteric fermentation of
herbivores.

--  Of GHGs with an indirect effect, combustion appears to be
the main source of NO and CO. The contribution of the different
activities to NO and CO emissions is comparable to their
contributions to CO<2> emissions. The principal sources of
nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are combustion,
petroleum and natural gas distribution, and the use of solvents.

Emission Inventory and Mitigation Considerations

It is possible that population increases and economic growth will
increase GHG emissions in some sectors of the national production.
The fact that Bolivia is a country in transition within the region must
be taken into account. As a supplier of energy, Bolivia will export
natural gas, and probably electricity, to neighboring countries. The
national energy strategy for rural areas is to expand demand, which at
the present time is low, in comparison to urban demand.

     It is not possible to attempt to establish possible measures
to reduce emissions. Such measures will be developed only after
the inventory has been carried out in detail. Possible measures
in the energy sector are the reduction of natural gas losses
in petroleum production activities, and high efficiency in
energy consumption.

     A considerable quantity of natural gas is produced as a by-product
of the production of petroleum and is ventilated or burned off. This
represents approximately 30 percent of natural gas production. That
amount could be reinjected into the wells or added to the natural gas
pipeline. Projected requirements are based on a considerable demand.

     The major portion of wood used as domestic fuel is the
firewood used for cooking purposes. High efficiency ovens could
be promoted. Energy efficiency could be developed in various
industries with high energy consumption levels, such as electrical
energy plants, petroleum processing, foundries, and tile factories.

     With respect to the burning of forests in agriculture,
several measures could be considered as long as they are in
accordance with the country's conditions and possibilities, such
as the reduction of the necessity to burn biomass, and control
of the burning activities.

     The need for burning may be reduced by lowering the loss
of fertility by optimizing the use of fertilizers, for example,
or by encouraging farmers to grow alternative crops. In most
cases, forest burning is not necessary. Appropriate legal
measures with regard to controlling the burning would limit the
areas affected.

Analysis of the Vulnerability and Adaptability 
of Ecosystems to Climate Change

Introduction
Bolivia is a country of contrasts not only in topography
and climate but also at the ecological level.

     Precipitation in Bolivia is closely related to the atmospheric
circulation of the trade winds, which originate in the
Inter-Tropical Zone of Convergence (ITZC).

     The distribution of temperatures in Bolivia is the result of
differences in latitude and altitude. The annual average
temperature varies from 10oC on the Altiplano to 18oC in the
valleys and 25oC in the lowland plains.

     Temperatures may vary greatly, however, from day to day.
That occurs more frequently in the lowland plains as an effect
of the polar air (surazo) entering Bolivia from the south
Pacific. Temperatures in Bolivia are also modified by positive
or negative temperature anomalies in the east Pacific, the El
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), or Anti-Nino phenomena.

     Recurring dry spells, floods and devastating out-of-season
frost during the past five years, aggravated by the natural
conditions described above, have brought into question the
degree of vulnerability to global changes due to the effect of
climate change.

     In the event of climate change, the areas of Bolivia that
would suffer the greatest impact would be those now dedicated
to agricultural production, since the country supplies its
domestic market by means of its internal production (products
that originate in the Altiplano, as well as soya, corn, rice,
and sugar cane in the regions of valleys and the lowland
plains). Forested areas serving as important reservoirs of flora
and fauna could also be affected. Finally, it is quite possible
that water resources would be impacted, generating irrigation
and supply problems in different parts of the country,
particularly in those  areas subject to serious water shortages.

Objectives
--  To characterize the vulnerability of the agricultural,
forest, and water resource sectors

--  To establish the most appropriate scenarios for the country
under both climate and nonclimate conditions

--  To establish the extent of vulnerability in each sector, as
well as policies of adaptation most suited to each

Activities
Compilation and Evaluation of Studies.: Basic information required for
the execution of each of the respective modules will be compiled and
harmonized with the data required by the General Circulation Models
(GCMs) and impact assessment models for each sector. The models and
methodologies will be adapted to the Bolivian conditions.

     Validation and Application of Models.: Each sector will utilize
the results of the GCM model or models (i.e., CCCM, GFDL, GISS, UKMO)
best suited to Bolivia.

     For each sector, the models will be validated and then run
with the climate scenario. The results obtained will be analyzed
and the regions of vulnerability to climate change
identified.

     The socioeconomic scenario will be analyzed in parallel,
establishing the expected conditions for the year 2070. With these
results, options of adaptation for each sector will be indicated so
that a general analysis of vulnerability and adaptation policies may
be implemented.

     Consultative Workshops: Workshops will be conducted to present the
methodology and to discuss results and options for adaptation.

     International Events: Bolivian technicians will participate in
seminars organized in the U.S. or other countries with regard to the
vulnerability and adaptation of ecosystems to climate variations in the
fields of agriculture, water resources, forests, and livestock raising.

Development of Scenarios
Two scenarios will be developed: The Climate Change Scenario and
the Socio-Economic Scenario.

     The Climate Change Scenario will be developed using two or
three GCM models (CCCM, GFDL, GISS, UKMO), the results of which
will be compared with historic records. Once the GCMs best
adapted to Bolivia have been chosen, they will serve as a basis
for work in each of the sectors to analyze the results of the
predictions of their respective models.

     For the Socio-Economic analysis, future population, Gross National
Product (GNP), per capita income, and productivity  figures must be established for at least the next 50 years.

     Statistical projections shall be made by institutions
responsible for providing such indicators.

Analysis of the Conduction of Biophysical
and Economic Impact Studies by Sector
As mentioned above, analysis of biophysical impacts shall be divided
into three sectors: agriculture, forests, and water resources.

Analysis of the Impact on Agricultural Crops Identification of Key
Topics in the Sector.: Bolivia has three significant ecological levels
or regions that determine the production of crops of economic
importance.

     In the highest region, on the Altiplano and along the
periphery of the Cordillera of the Andes, the traditional crops
of greatest economic importance are potatoes and barley, which
serve as the basic food of the inhabitants and the livestock of
the region. This ecological level is characterized by its
adverse climate; soils with low levels of nitrogen, phosphorus,
and potassium; and a lack of irrigation systems that would allow
increased yields of crops, the majority of which are dry-farmed.

     The valley region, in which the greatest production of corn
is concentrated, has soils that are more fertile and a climate
that is more stable. However, there is a lack of water resources,
reason enough for the region to be considered in the V&A study.

     The major production of rice and soya in Bolivia is
concentrated in the tropical ecosystem. In spite of the climate
being appropriate for a diversity of crops, however, its soils
are undergoing an accelerated process of desertification because
the crop production systems utilized are extractive in nature,
and the soil is recycled over very extended periods of time.

     For the reasons mentioned above, an analysis of the
vulnerability and adaptability of the crops of economic
relevance in the various ecological levels of Bolivia is of
vital importance to face the climate changes that may occur in
each of the regions.

Selection of the Methodology.: The analytical methodology that will be
utilized for the evaluation of climate impact on the crops will be based
on the DSSAT3 program, which compares those strategies that are suitable
to measure changes both in climate and in agricultural production.

     Statistical data will be obtained from the various agencies related
to the agricultural meteorology and climatology of the country, such as
Secretaria Nacional de Agricultura y Ganaderia, Food and Agricultural
Organization, Instituto Bolivieno de Technologia Agropecuaria, Camara
Agropecuaria del Oriente, etc.

Analysis of the Impact of Pasturing and Livestock Raising
Identification of Key Topics in the Sector: Potential areas for
livestock production and possible changes in land use for the
qualification of pastures and economic impacts will be analyzed.

     Selection of the Methodology: The methodology to be used for the
assessment is based on the selection of the two or three GCMs that most
closely approximate conditions in the country.

     A program will be implemented to identify potential areas
for livestock production and the country's natural pastures that
are subject to change and may be vulnerable.

     Regional climate information (precipitation, temperature, solar
radiation, wind) and livestock production data (weights, nutrition
level, etc.) reflecting the initial conditions in the country will be
used to carry out the analysis, which will take into account the
economic importance of the regions and their impact on the national
scene.

     Later, a simulation will be implemented utilizing the model
SPUR2 (simulation for production and utilization of meadows and
pasture land for ranching) to establish possible vulnerable sectors.

     Finally, options and policies of adaptation will be established.

Analysis of the Impact on Forests
Identify Key Topics in the Sector.: The topics of greatest interest to
the country in relation to climate change will be those inherent in the
various forest/agricultural ecological levels or zones mentioned above.

     This subtask will be focused on the economic and
biophysical impacts of climate change on the forests. The same
structure utilized for agricultural crops may be used here.

     The specific objective of the V&A study is to appraise productive
forests in such a manner so to allow the identification of changes in
certain parameters that may influence the species of the above-mentioned
various ecological levels or zones.

     Selection of the Methodology: The analysis will be based on the
HOLDRIDGE and GAP models, taking into account temperature,
precipitation, and solar radiation values. Data on temperature and
precipitation covering a thirty-year period will be completed. Values
for temperature and precipitation provided by the most adequate GCM will
be added. Later, utilizing the CLIM program, a data base will be created
to calculate the annual precipitation and biotemperature. The HOLDRIDGE
model and the corresponding comparison will be utilized to determine the
areas of overall impact. The GAP model will be utilized to determine the
critical areas and simulation for analysis of the impact and adaptation
options. Finally, an evaluation of the economic impacts will be
conducted.

Analysis of Impacts on Water Resources
Identify Key Topics in the Sector: The incidence of climate change on
water resources in the economic regions most important  to the country
will be analyzed.

     Prediction models will be used to analyze possible impacts on water
resources (increases or decreases in runoffs in principal basins) that
could increase dry spells or floods in agricultural and grasslands, as
well as increase or decrease water supplies in the reservoirs that
supply water to the various cities.

     The principal objective is to establish the vulnerability
of those water resources, not only to climate change but also
to population growth, that are exposed not only by climate
change but also by population growth which impacts on future
demands. Another objective is to establish the options of
adaptation best suited to the country.

     Water resources have a very important economic incidence
in  Bolivia, not only from the point of view of production but
from the point of view of the population's health as well. At
the present time, many medium-sized cities are completing the
process of obtaining access to a supply of fresh water and
many agricultural and livestock raising areas are starting
to introduce modern irrigation systems to improve their
production processes.

     Selection of Methodology: On the basis of the results
obtained from the GCMs as to changes in matters of precipitation
and temperature, those same results will be introduced into some
of the models studied and previously validated (WATBAL or CLIRUN).
The WATBAL model will allow for the utilization of various models of
Potential Evaporation/Transpiration (PET) in function of the kind of
information available.

Conduction of the Analysis of Adaptation Policies
Integration of Sector Results: An integrated analysis of all the sectors
will be conducted for an overall evaluation of the effects of climate
change in Bolivia. The results of this model will allow for the
integration of impacts in economic terms across sectors.

     This analysis will also identify possible adaptation options
that may apply to two or more interrelated sectors.

     Identification of Policies of Adaptation to be Considered: Adaptation policies that anticipate climate change and recommend
preventive measures in the more vulnerable sectors will be evaluated.
The analysis will establish and demonstrate the importance of applying
such policies and the urgency to implement them in the near future.
Such policies must be based on recommendations that may originate in
regional and national workshops, specialized seminars, and reviews of
the achievements by other countries.

                             CONCLUSIONS

Bolivia has begun its process of inventorying greenhouse gases
by attempting to address the most important sources of emissions
at the present time. All the recommendations set forth by the
IPCC with regard to methodologies and procedures will be taken
into account. Some adjustments in emission factors will have to
be made. Preliminary results are just estimates. They should not
be considered as references due to the fact that many GHG
emission sectors still need to be analyzed.

     As to vulnerability and adaptation, the preparation of the
work plan has begun. The analysis of three important
sectors--agriculture, forests, and water resources--will be
conducted, since they are of vital importance to the economy
and the quality of life. The methodology called for in the
present document will attempt to convene a series of suggestions
with respect to adaptation policies that should be considered by
the national executive authorities.

                              References

Brockmann, C.E. 1986. Environmental profile of Bolivia.
International Institute for Development and the Environment.

CENSUS. 1992. National census of population and housing 1992.
Final results. National Statistics Institute (INE).

U.S. Country Studies Program. 1994. Guidance for vulnerability and
adaptation assessment. Version 1.0. Washington, DC.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1994.
IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories.
3 vols. Bracknell.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Office of Policy,
Planning and Evaluation. 1994. Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions and sinks 1990-1993. EPA 230-R-94-014. Washington, DC.

World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Program
(WMO/UNEP). 1992. Climate change: scientific evaluation of the IPCC.

Granado, H., Sheriff, E. 1994. New directions in mining and
hydrocarbons in Bolivia. Structural Adjustment Program
Working Document Series.

IPCC. 1994. Manual for the inventorying of greenhouse effect gases.
Final Draft.

MDH. 1993. Poverty map, a guide to social action. INE.
Montes de Oca, I. 1989. Geography and natural resources of Bolivia.

PNE. 1992. 1991 Energy balance. National energy plan.
Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons.

PNE. 1993. 1991 Energy Balance. National energy plan. Bulletin
2/93. Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons.

SGMA. 1993. Environmental Action Plan for Bolivia.
National Secretariat of the Environment.


________________________________________________________________________

                Central America: Vulnerability Assessment
                to Climate Change for the Water, Coastal,
                       and Agricultural Resources

               Central America Country Studies Project Team
________________________________________________________________________
     SUMMARY: Based on the most recent scientific knowledge
     from global assessments on climate change and the necessity
     for decreasing the regional uncertainties that still exist on
     the issue, studies for estimating the vulnerability of
     water, agriculture, and coastal resources to a change in climate
     are being conducted in Central America. Seven countries
     (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
     Nicaragua, and Panama) participate in the initiative coordinated
     by the Regional Committee in Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) and the
     Central America Commission on Environment and Development
     (CCAD). The Government of the United States of America through
     its Country Studies Program (U.S. CSP) is supporting the effort.
     Several methodological discussions and consultations have been
     held between scientists from Central America and the U.S. CSP.

        The project was initiated in January 1994 and after
     finalizing organizational matters and training for the 29
     studies included within the region, several teams of specialists
     are now working on the assessment. Due to the fact that seven
     countries are involved in the project and that the schedule of
     activities varies for each area of study, it is still premature
     to make comparisons other than on methods and activities.
     Baseline scenarios are being developed for the region. They
     cover socioeconomic, environmental, and climatological aspects
     of the region. Each country has discussed and selected priority
     areas and actions to serve as the focus of the study, through
     "National Development Plan" criteria.

        For the water resources sector estimations of climate
     change impacts on demand and supply of water are being
     completed. A video mapping analysis of the Pacific coastline of
     Central America and for the Caribbean coastline of Honduras and
     Belize has been completed to identify the vulnerability of
     coastal resources. For the agricultural sector, all basic data
     have been gathered to complete the model simulations of climate
     change impacts for subsistence crops.
________________________________________________________________________

                             INTRODUCTION

Scientific estimations indicate that changes in the
global temperature may have an effect on the intensity and
frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Central America.
Changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and in the speed
and seasonality of the trade winds may also be expected. A
modification in these systems would change the actual climate
regime of Central America. According to the scientific
assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) (Houghton, et al., 1990), a change in the actual climate
conditions, may have an effect on important economic activities,
such as: forestry, biodiversity, water resources, agriculture,
human health, and coastal and marine ecosystems.

     Even though the growing importance that new activities
like tourism have had recently, agriculture is still a major
component in the economy of the Central American countries.
Agriculture is important for the region not only for economic
income purposes (cash crops) but also from the perspective of
subsistence and food security. The high dependence of the
Central American economies on agricultural products and the
corresponding relationship between this sector and the climate,
increases the sensitivity of this sector to a potential change
in climate.

     In most of the Central American countries the production of
energy depends, on a high percentage, of its hydroelectric capacity.
Changes in the circulation patterns that might affect the seasonality
and the amount of rainfall would present a major threat to the energy production sector. Recent experiences with the El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are evidence of this vulnerability.

     Central America, located in the middle of the American
Continent is natural divide between two oceans, therefore, it
contains one of the richest and more diverse coastal and marine
systems of the world. These systems include coral reefs,
mangroves, and one of the largest continuous beaches in the
world.

     Potential problems associated with the sea level rise and
the increasing development of tourism and commercial
infrastructure along the coast, place the countries' economies
in a vulnerable condition.

     Forest and wildlife are critical assets for Central America.
They are important not only for activities like ecotourism, but
also as a natural laboratory for finding new medicines and place
for the species to live in this human saturated world.

     From a global perspective, the tropical forests of
Central America play a large role as a sink of greenhouse gases
from the atmosphere. A high percentage of these forests are
under some kind of protective law.

     New initiatives from governments are addressing all of these
valuable resources within a general sustainable development framework.
Given the importance that natural resources have for Central America
and the high dependence that exist between the resources, climate,
and economic growth, a regional study is being undertaken for assessing
the vulnerability of water, agriculture, and coastal resources to a
potential change in climate.

                                 METHODS

The methodology used for the assessment of the vulnerability of the
water, coastal, and agricultural resources to a change in climate for
Central America can be divided into four components:

1. Baseline scenarios
--  Socioeconomic scenarios
--  Environmental scenarios
--  Climate scenarios

2. Vulnerability of water resources

3. Vulnerability of coastal resources

4. Vulnerability of agricultural resources

Baseline Scenarios

Socioeconomic: Scenarios for income growth, population growth and
distribution, energy demand, and agriculture demand are being prepared
for the Central America region contemplating projections to the year
2075. General estimations based on global and regional sources
(Pepper, 1992; United Nations, 1989,1990) are being used.

Environmental: Environmental scenarios are being prepared with
projections to  the year 2075 considering the following factors:
land-use change (including deforestation and urban development),
tenure, erosion and use of pesticides.

Climate: The subgroup for climate scenarios is developing the
scenarios using information generated from the General
Circulation Models (GCMs) and from the Central America reference
data base on climate change, which have been developed for the
activities of the IPCC.

    The main methodological steps include:

--  Development of the Central America reference data base on
    climate change

  --  Criteria for information selection

  --  Selection and collection of information

  --  Input and transferring of information to data base

  --  Quality control

  --  Development of data base

--  Study of available results from GCM models

  --  Comparative analyses between the pressure, temperature,
      precipitation and solar radiation fields with the actual fields
      (Hastenrath, 1981)

--  Establishments of regional characteristics for validating
    the results from the models

--  Selection of the models used for the development of the scenarios

--  Development of scenarios

Water Resources

The main methodological steps include:

--  Selection of main study areas (basins) according to criteria

--  Impacts on the water resources (supply)

  --  Gathering and quality control of information

  --  Analysis of information

  --  Determination of the monthly availability of the water using
      the CLIRUN 3 model

--  Impacts on the use of water (demand)

  --  Determination of the actual use of water

  --  Verification of information

--  Estimation of the water demand for the year 2075, for each
    basin, with no change in climate

--  Vulnerability

  --  Balance between supply and demand for each basin under study

  --  Determination of the level of vulnerability by using the
      criteria developed by Shuval (Shuval,1987)

Coastal Resources

The main methodological steps include:

--  Gathering of basic information (maps)

--  Development of criteria for establishing priority zones for
    coastlines

  --  Government and private sectors consultations (national plans
      for development and coastal zone management plans)

--  Preliminary classification of coastline

  --  Expert judgement and national documents

--  Videotaping of coastline

--  Video analysis

--  Coastline classification update and calibration according
    with video

--  Making ground truth measurements for priority zones

--  Development of coastline profiles for priority zones

--  Estimation of vulnerability for priority zones

Agricultural Resources

The main methodological steps include:

--  Identification of sensitive crops (highly climate-dependent)
    in the region

--  Definition of zones

--  Definition and collection of information

--  Model validation (DSSAT 3.0)

--  Simulations of crop growth

--  Estimation of vulnerability

                          DISCUSSION

Baseline Scenarios
Socioeconomic and environmental scenarios are being developed
for  the Central American region and in certain cases
individually for each participating country depending on the
availability and quality of the information that is available.

     Final results from this component are expected in April 1995.

Climate Scenarios
Agricultural information will be handled independently for each
participating country.

     A Central American reference database for climate change
studies is under development. Climatological and hydrological
data for the region is being input into the system. At this
moment, 80 percent of the data entry process has been completed.
Data includes daily precipitation, daily maximum and minimum
temperature, daily solar radiation and/or sunshine hours, monthly
river flow and runoff. The information covers the period 1951-1994,
and for some areas earlier records have been obtained, some of them
starting in 1886. A total of 60 weather stations were selected for
Central America. They are representative of large climatological zones and of the main synoptic patterns that produces the actual regional
weather and climate.

     In the case of hydrological and agronomic information, the
data represent specific basins and zones were the studies are
taking place (Tables 1 and 3).

     All the information entered in the data base has been subject
to a quality control process. Two main approaches are being used
for the development of climate scenarios for the vulnerability
studies: one is a selection of those model results that best represent
the Central American region climate. The other approach is more
subjective since it incorporates the expert judgement. On the basis of
the model results that best represent the region, climatologists and
meteorologists from the region will incorporate their knowledge of the
synoptic systems and their corresponding mesoscale impacts. This latter
approach will allow for a better utilization by the scientists who are
in charge of assessing the vulnerability in specific zones of Central
America.

     The generation of climate scenarios is expected to be completed
by April 1995.

Water Resources

Each of the seven countries participating in the study has identified
the main basins to be studied (Table 1). They were selected based on
their national plans for development, and taking into account their
actual and potential relevance for water supply and hydroelectricity.
In some cases irrigation uses were also considered. At this moment each
country is working on the analysis of the supply by applying the
CLIRUN 3 model. The results from this phase of the study will be
discussed in a workshop that will take place in Panama City on
April 5-7, 1995.

Coastal Resources

For the estimation of the vulnerability of the coastal resources,
priority zones have been established (Table 2) and the basic
information has been collected and analyzed in order to classify and
characterize the coastline of Central America. A video tape shot from
two altitudes (average 50 and 250 m) has been prepared for the Pacific
coastline of Central America and for priority areas of the Caribbean
coastline.

     At this point, coastline profiles are being prepared and
ground truthing is being completed. It is estimated that 80
percent of the task has been completed. 

Agricultural Resources

The more sensitive crops selected for the study were
maize, beans, and rice as food security crops, and banana and
coffee as cash crops. The zones of study are presented in
Table 3.

     At this point each national team is gathering the information
and preparing the simulations with the DSSAT3 model.


                               REFERENCES

Hastenrath, S., and P. Lamb. 1981. Climatic Atlas of the
Tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans. The University of
Wisconsin Press.

Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., and J. J. Ephraums. 1990.
Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Pepper, W. et al., 1992. Emissions Scenarios for the IPCC.
An update: Assumptions, Methodology, and Results. ICF
Incorporated, Fairfax, VA., U.S.A.

Shuval, H.I. 1987. The Development of water reuse in Israel.
Ambio 16:186-192.

United Nations. 1990. Overall Socioeconomic Perspective of
the World Economy to the year 2000, New York, N.Y., U.S.A.
N.Y., U.S.A.

________________________________________________________________________

               China: Studies Addressing Global Climate Change

                  Guo Yuan,/1/ Lin Erda,/2/ Liu Zhiping/3/

/1/Institute of Nuclear Technology, Tsinghua University,
   Beijing, P.R. China
/2/Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural
   Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China
/3/Energy Research Institute, State Planning Commission and Chinese
   Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China
________________________________________________________________________

     SUMMARY: China, as the most populous country, plays
     important roles in the actions to address global climate change.
     Given the prospects for continued rapid economic growth into the
     next century, it is essential that China be included in
     any international strategy to mitigate global climate change.
     The Chinese Government has made great efforts to formulate
     and implement research in this field. Along with economic
     development and the poverty alleviation, GHG emissions,
     particularity CO<2> emissions, will increase unavoidably. The
     challenges China face are both to minimize the GHG increase
     without unduly impeding  social and economic development, and to
     minimize the risks arising from climate change. In the past few
     years, some bilateral or multilateral cooperation has been
     carried out. Prior research efforts have been devoted to the
     assessment of GHG mitigation technology options, and the
     analysis of impacts of and adaptation to climate change--mainly
     focused on agriculture, water resources, forests and coastal
     resources. As a result, a large body of data, models and
     experience has been accumulated. However, these researches are
     mainly focused on macro study at either the state or sector
     level. Preliminary results show that a high potential of GHG
     reduction exists in China, and some regions with higher
     vulnerability in several sectors have been identified. It is
     necessary to conduct further and broader studies to formulate
     China's national response to global climate change.
________________________________________________________________________

                              INTRODUCTION

China is one of more than 150 countries which signed the Framework
Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992.
As an indication of its commitment to implement the provision of the
convention, China has initiated the process of formulating a National
Response Strategy for Global Climate Change. In the past few years,
ADB/SSTC and GEF/NEPA projects have been implemented, making the first
stride to identify options in a wide range of sectors in China. On the
basis of previous studies, a new project, China Country Study, that is
under the U.S. Country Studies Program has been initiated. The project
will improve the Chinese scientific and institutional capacity to carry
out studies addressing global climate change and to formulate China's
national response strategies. The China Country Study will allow for
indepth study of mitigation options and vulnerabilities and adaptation
options and improve confidence in information reliability.

                           MITIGATION ASSESSMENT

Results of Previous Studies

Since the energy system in China is the most
significant contributor to GHG emissions, special efforts have
been made to analyze mitigation options for energy-intensive
sectors, while research on the assessment of GHG mitigation
options in the land-use sectors and other nonenergy sectors has
been comparatively much more limited.

     In the ADB/SSTC and GEF/NEPA projects, the major efforts were put
on the assessment of mitigation technology at the sectoral level and
macroeconomic analysis of defined scenarios. In order to study the
interrelationship between economic development and GHG mitigation,
different kinds of models were developed and used. Major results from
both studies concluded that with future increases in population,
economic development, and urbanization in China, as well as a growing
demand for materials and services, there will be strong pressure for
increased energy consumption and an inevitable rise in greenhouse
gas emissions.

     For China, the technical options for reducing emissions
of greenhouse gases in the energy sector fall into two
broad categories: 1) increasing the efficiency of energy
utilization and reducing energy losses in the end-use sectors
and energy production and conversion sectors, and 2) promoting
the substitution of lower emitting fuels (e.g., natural gas)
and essentially GHG-free energy sources (e.g., hydropower or
nuclear energy) for coal.

     Improvement in the direct, technical efficiency of energy use
is clearly the top priority for specific action to mitigate
GHG emissions in China over the short and medium term.
Further improvements in the technical efficiency of energy use
can have a major impact on China's GHG emissions over the next
twenty-five years. Improvements in energy efficiency also are
among the most cost-effective means to reduce GHG emissions,
since there are many investments where energy cost savings more
than offset total costs. Expanded investment is required to
reduce energy use per physical unit of output, both through
renovation of existing facilities and through adoption of more
efficient processes and equipment in new facilities. Actions to
conserve coal are most important because of coal's dominance in
the energy mix and the high carbon dioxide emissions associated
with its combustion. Industry will continue to be the sector
with the greatest potential for energy-efficiency savings.
Improving the efficiency of use of certain energy-intensive raw
materials, such as steel, requires addressing many of the same
problems in implementation as direct technical energy efficiency.

     China also has built a sound institutional network for
promoting energy conservation and has developed a wide range of
programs, some with marked success. Improvements in energy
conservation will require the further development of
market-based incentives. Implementation of a national initiative
to develop higher efficiency small- and medium-scale coal-fired
industrial boilers, through adoption of advanced technology, is
among the top priorities for reducing GHG emissions over the
near term. Additional support is also needed to encourage the
adoption of other types of high-efficiency equipment, such as
high-efficiency electric motors, variable-speed motors, and
associated high-efficiency industrial electrical equipment, more
efficient air-conditioning equipment and refrigerators,
efficient lighting devices, and steam traps associated with
industrial piping networks. Improving the efficiency of electric
motors and associated industrial equipment is most important,
since such equipment accounts for almost half of China's total
electricity use.

     Expanded use of less carbon-intensive alternatives to coal is
a second important objective for the energy sector in China's
GHG reduction strategy. To contribute significantly to China's
energy economy over the medium and long term, however, greater
support for the development of low- or non-carbon energy
technologies is urgently needed today. Consistent with China's
development and environment protection goals, more efforts
should be made to accelerate the technological development of
alternative energy sources, particularly renewable energy
technologies. Efforts should focus on research and development,
and technology demonstration and dissemination activities aimed
at reducing the cost of alternative energy supply and improving
its cost-effectiveness when compared with the use of coal.
Primary emphasis should be given to technologies that are most
likely to contribute significantly to China's long-term energy
supply, such as harnessing nuclear power, wind farms based on
large-scale generators, advances in solar photovoltaic and
thermal-electric technologies, large-scale biomass energy
utilization schemes, and new methods for extracting natural gas
under difficult geological conditions.

China Country Study Activities

On the basis of previous studies mainly focused on macro analyses at
either state or sector level, a two-year cooperation project--the China
Country Study, sponsored by the U.S. Government and implemented by the
State Science and Technology Commission (SSTC)--was initiated on
November 1, 1994. This project differs greatly from the previous studies since it is aimed at:

1.  Establishing a China-specific methodology guideline in
    collaboration with appropriate U.S. developments and institutions,
    which will be used for the compilation of the GHG inventory,
    assessment of vulnerability, and analysis of adaptation and
    mitigation technologies as well as the socioeconomic evaluation
    of scenarios and response policies.

2.  Carrying out case-studies for selected regions and chosen
    technologies following the methodology guideline, aimed at 
    developing demonstration projects for further research in China.

3.  Undertaking national assessments based on research outputs,
    case-studies, and prior research.

4.  Providing support for national policy dialogues on GHG 
    emission mitigation options.

The study contains four major assessment elements designed to
cover the following topics:

1.  Identification of GHG sources and sinks and compilation
    of an inventory of major GHGs.

2.  Assess the impacts of climate change and studies of adaptive
    response policies.

3.  Identify and integrate technological options for GHG mitigation
    and their socioeconomic and environmental implications analysis.

4.  Socioeconomic evaluation of China's response policies to climate
    change including integrated option assessment for future GHG
    emissions.

In this project, assessment of GHG mitigation options will
focus on the individual technologies from ten technology
categories identified by previous studies as priorities for
mitigating GHG emissions in China, including power generation,
industry boilers, electric motors, renewable energy and other
categories. Particular attention will be given to the nonenergy
sectors, including rice paddy and forest systems.

     The major work related to the mitigation option assessment
includes: collate existing information on current technology options
in China in relation to GHG emission; develop a mitigation options
indicator (ranking) system for technical, economic, and environmental
factors suitable to China; evaluate and select technologies adapted to
China's specific conditions for mitigating GHG emissions; identify
obstacles and transmit policy suggestions for implementation of
high-priority technologies to government agencies; and establish a
technology characterization inventory for reducing GHG emission in
China. The project will conduct preliminary micro-scale socioeconomic
analyses for highly ranked technologies, evaluate and rank existing or
emerging domestic and exogenous technologies in terms of technical
feasibility, economic characteristics, environmental impact, technical
maturity, absorption capacity, and resource constraints. Simulation
models and analytical tools will be employed.

     The INET model has been modified since it was used in the
ADB study. An input-output (I/O) matrix is being added to its
dynamic technology choice framework. The model requires testing
and the inclusion of additional technological and economic data.
The country study will incorporate the new data into the
model. Technological data will come from the technology
mitigation options working group. Scientists at MIT that
contributed to the development of the I/O-INET model will
participate in the new modifications for the model.

     In addition, the Chinese country study team will be trained
on the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) Second-Generation
Model that is under development. Both models will be reviewed as
widely as possible among Chinese experts. The suitability of
these and other models to the research targets, merits, and
shortcomings concerning modeling conception, theory, and method,
as well as the availability of the required data, will be
reviewed and evaluated, in order to determine the modelling
method by which the Chinese conditions could be best addressed
so as to satisfy the research objectives.

     Quantitative analysis on the interactive effect of
future technological options and macroeconomic development will
be carried out based on the I/O-INET and PNL models. The
analysis will include the system evaluation of the potential GHG
technical mitigation options, their effects on investments and
costs and the macroeconomy. The SGM model will also be used as a
reference tool for scenario generation and microeconomic policy
assessment. As China is under the rapid reform where a market
economy will become the framework of economic development in the
future, the SGM model, which is a general equilibrium model,
will help to analyze the possible impact of response policy
within the context of international trade and technology
transfer. Meanwhile, as SGM is a simulation model, it will help
to generate economic development scenarios as well as emission
scenarios, and to identify the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario.

     Currently, China is at an initial stage in the
socioeconomic assessment of climate change issues. Since this
field covers a broad range of methodologies and issues, there is
a need for a literature search, an evaluation of methodologies
appropriate to the Chinese context, and the development of
guidelines for the country study working groups and Chinese
socioeconomic professionals at the national and regional level.
A draft "Guidance on Socioeconomic Assessment Methodology in
China" will be prepared by the project, the guidelines will
address the theory and methodology for socioeconomic assessment
and data collection, identify the diverse range of factors in
an assessment including level of development, prices,
technology mixture, etc., that differ from region to region and
sector to sector.

                     VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION

Results of Previous Studies

Impact: China is a developing country with the largest population in
the world, in which only 7 percent arable land has to feed 22
percent population of the world's total. The climate in China is
of various types and affects economic development.
Geographically situated at the middle latitude regions, China
has a large, well developed, and densely populated coastal area,
and has long been plagued by water shortage and uneven water
distribution. Therefore the country is quite vulnerable to the
impact of climate change.

     Agriculture and Forestry: The dynamics of moisture
availability is the key factor affecting the agriculture and
forest sectors. Based on some GCM (Global Circulation Model)
results, if the temperature rises, the middle latitude regions
may have less rainfall and more evapotranspiration, while low
latitude regions might get more moisture in China. The
substantial change in temperature and precipitation would make
climate more unstable and could possibly result in instability
of agriculture and agricultural product supply; readjustment of
farming practices that would affect the yields; acute water
shortage in north areas that would lead to desertification,
degradation and soil erosion, and agricultural ecosystem
deterioration; reduction in the areas appropriate for timber
production and modest reduction in forest coverage; and
increasing financial demands for agriculture and forest
development to adapt to climate change.

     Water Resources: The impact of global climate change on
the alteration of wet and dry seasons, and flood and
drought occurrences is quite apparent. The simulation-produced
data show that a rise in global temperature would increase the
summer monsoon thus exacerbating the likelihood of flood or
drought disasters. The possible climate variation will increase
the frequency of floods and water logging in rain-intensive
southern areas, and aggravate the drought in the semiarid and
semi-rainy northern areas, thus disrupting the normal water
allocation. The consequent difficulties in water management
would produce an adverse impact on social and economic
development.

     Sea-level Rise: China's coastal line is as long as 18,000 km.
The threatened rise of sea level might submerge the land where
the economy grows rapidly with a dense population. The data
observed on a long-term basis indicate that the sea level of
China is rising at a rate of 1.4 mm per year.

Adaptation Strategies

Agriculture: Since crop-yields are highly dependent upon
the hydrological cycle (i.e., precipitation and
potential evapotranspiration) and solar radiation, agriculture
is likely to be one of the production sectors most affected in
the case of climate change. The territories of China that are
sensitive to the impact of climate change can be divided into
six areas as follows: areas along the Great Wall; Huang-Huai
Plain; North area of the Huai River, including eastern Shangong;
Central and southern areas of the Yuman Plateau; Middle and
lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin; and Loess plateau.

     The above areas are only identified as more sensitive to
climate change. The actual degree of vulnerability depends upon
social, economic, and technological factors. The analysis
illustrates that the areas where agriculture is most vulnerable
to the impacts of climate change are the eastern and southern
parts of China.

     The possible adaptation strategy will include three categories:

--  More Intensive Management as a Countermeasure

--  Stabilize the sown acreage for grain crop and set up
    a system of zoning which will protect grain field, so as
    to maintain a response capacity for climate change 

--  Strengthen the effective capacity of farm irrigation

--  Improve the land with low crop yield and enhance the
    productivity

--  Popularize a more optimal fertilizer mix and adopt the
    technique of varying subsoil application according to actual
    change in soil condition

--  Utilize drought-resistant superior species, etc.

--  Farming Structure Readjustment
    The Program for food development of the Chinese
    Government stipulates that China will transform its traditional
    dual farming into a tripartite one entailing the coordinated
    development of grain crops, feed crops and cash crops, with the
    production of feed crops becoming relatively independent.

--  Technology for Agriculture Adaptability

  --  Strengthen certain farming techniques to increase the adaptability

  --  Develop dryland farming techniques

  --  Promote the feed cropping technique

Forestry: China has about 128.6 Mha of forest lands,
representing 13.92 percent of the total land, which has been the
major sink of CO<2> and regulator of climate. Forest coverage
preservation and expansion through a reforestation drive and
deforestation prohibition is quite essential to mitigate GHGs
and respond to climate change. Relative to the size of its
population, China has limited forest resources. On a per capita
basis, the forested area which is 0.11 ha and the stock volume
which is 8 cubic m amount to approximately one-sixth and
one-ninth of the world average, respectively. The vulnerable
forested areas are mainly located at N. Lat. 33-40, including
Shandong, Henan, Shaxi, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai provinces.

The adaptation strategy for forestry will basically include:

--  Large Tree-Planting Plan to Increase Forest Coverage
    China has assigned great importance to reforestation by
    instituting a basic program of planting the tree and greening the
    nation, and now the efforts are mainly focusing on:

  --  The Three-North (-east, north-central and northwest parts of
      China) windbreak system with the involvement of 12 provinces and
      reforestation areas of 35 Mha 

  --  The shelter forest system along the upper and middle reaches
      of Yangtze River with the involvement of 9 provinces and
      reforestation areas of 20 Mha

  --  The shelter forest system in coastal areas with the
      involvement of 11 provinces and reforestation areas of 3.55 Mha

  --  The shelter forest system in Taibang Mountain regions with the
      involvement of 4 provinces and reforestation areas of 3.96 Mha

  --  The farm shelter forest system in plain areas with an
      acreage of 19 Mha

  --  Anti-desertification drive with an acreage of 6.66 Mha

--  Enhancing Management, Improving Forest Quality, and
    Increasing Disaster-resistance and Adaptability
    Disaster-resistant species will be selected and the
    forest mix is expected to be restructured. Other changes
    include intensifying management, preserving biodiversity, and
    stabilizing forest ecosystems.

--  Intensifying the Legislation and Perfecting Infrastructure
    Facilities for Forest Preservation

Water Resources: In China, water resources are mainly
recharged from precipitation. The bulk of rainfall (about 71
percent) is formed by the condensation of vapor from outside of
China while 29 percent originates from the land surface within
the country. The vapor from outside is transferred by the
southwestern, southern, and southeastern monsoons from the Bay
of Bengal, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow
Sea, the Bohai Sea, and the Sea of Japan. Rainfall in China is
vulnerable to the monsoon climate in Asia, which is subject to
global climate change and thus, in turn, makes China more
affected by severe drought and chronic water shortage.

    The possible response strategy for water resources will include:

--  Move water resource from water-sufficient areas to water-short
    areas, for example, the ongoing South Water Transferring
    to North Program

--  Improve water management in terms of both quality and quantity
    to protect water sources and preserve the environment

--  Conserve water and reduce the water consumption quotas
    for industry and agriculture 

--  Desalinate sea water, and dispose and recycle sewage
to increase water supply

Sea-Level Rise: Over the recent years, a statistical analysis
of data monitored from 48 coastal tide observatories in China
shows an increase in mean sea level of 1.4 mm per year, which
has produced a significant impact on China's coastal zones.
The possible countermeasures would be:

--  Upgrade the monitoring and forecast of sea level rise

--  Survey and draw up topographic maps at a very detailed level

--  Construct tidal prevention infrastructure

--  Control and prevent land subsidence

Methodology for China Country Study

1.  Using the GFDL, UKMO and NCAR GCM scenarios, a
    high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is being developed
    for China. It will provide predictions of regional climate
    change at a smaller grid scale. It is expected to be suitable for
    China's conditions. It will be used along with the GCM scenarios.

2.  The climate scenarios will be used to assess the vulnerability
    to climate change of six key sectors. The Agricultural sector
    includes crop and grasslands. DSSAT 3.0 and SPUR 2.0 will be used,
    respectively, to simulate the changes of wheat and maize production
    in the eastern part of China and the changes of cattle beef
    production in Inner Mongolia. A Chinese weather generator will
    give several climate variabilities under the GCMs, so the results
    should be more reasonable.

3.  The Forestry sector will use the Holdridge Life Zone Classification
    Model and the Forest GAP Models to simulate the changes in
    productivity and distribution of mature forest in Northeastern China
    and Yunnan Province. In addition some comparison methods will be
    used in different forest areas.

4.  The Water Resources sector will use a runoff model similar to
    the WATBAL and CLIRUN models to simulate and assess water demand
    and supply in Hailuan River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.

5.  In the Coastal Resources sector, no single model can be
    used to determine the impacts of global changes. The IPCC
    approach, including the seven-step methodology will be used to
    assess the impact of sea-level rise on the coastal areas of the
    Pearl River Delta.

6.  The Air Quality sector will use EKMA and OZIPM models
    to assess the changes of SO<2> and TSP for two main cities and
    a province.

7.  Each of the sectors above will develop adaptation strategies,
    respectively. Some sectors should consider the results of
    socioeconomic analysis.

                      SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTIES

At present, analyses and projections regarding global
climate change contain scientific uncertainties that still need
to be resolved. It is therefore necessary that broad
international cooperations should be carried out to address
these uncertainties. In developing the national response
strategy for global climate change, the results that are most
credible and consistent with China's specific conditions should
be taken into full consideration. Where possible, this study
should define the range of uncertainties and have policy makers
know what is known, unknown, uncertain, and controversial.

                            REFERENCES

Toufiq A. Siddiqi, David G. Streets, Wu Zongxin and He
Jiankun. 1994. National Response Strategy for Global Climate
Change: People's Republic of China. East-West Center, Argonne
National Laboratory and INET, Tsinghua University.

Report on a Joint Study Team. 1994. China: Issues and Options
in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control. The National
Environmental Protection Agency of China, the State Planning
Commission of China, the United Nations Development Program and
the World Bank.

Daly, T.A., and R.F. Kosobud. 1993. Users guide: the
Nordhaus Linear Programming (NLP) approach to long run energy
use and environmental problems. Argonne National Laboratory,
Reactor Analysis.

Energy System Analysis Division of INET. 1987. Energy
system planning and modeling. Press of Tsinghua University.

He Jiankun, et al. 1992. Technical option on CO<2>
emission reduction of energy system and its economic
assessment. Forecasting Journal, Vol. 11, No. 5.

He Jiankun, et al. 1993. A model of technical option on
energy system CO<2> emission reduction and its application. 

Symposium of the 1992 Annual Conference Market Economy and China
Energy Development Strategy. Atomic Energy Press.

Cheng Chunshu, et al. 1991. Climate and Agriculture in
China. Meteorological Publishing House, 1-519.

Lin Erda. 1994. The Sensitivity and Vulnerability of
China's Agriculture to Global Warming. Rural Eco-Environment,
Vol. 10, No. 1, pp 1-5.

Lu Liangshu and Liu Zhicheng, et al. 1991. Studies on the
Medium and Long-Term Strategy of Food Development in China.
Agricultural Publishing House, 1-232.

Lin Chunzhen. 1994. On the study of Climate Change on
hydrology and water resources in China. In press.

Xu Deying. 1994. A Preliminary Study of the Impact of
Climate Change on Forests and its Socio-Economy. In press.

Zheng, W. and X. Zhao. 1994. A Study of Long Period Sea
Level Changes in the China's Sea Areas. Mar. Geophys. Res., 7,
299-306.

Gan Shijun. 1994. China National Response Strategy for
Global Climate Change. The American Geophysical Union Western
Pacific Meeting. In press.

________________________________________________________________________

                 The Czech Republic: Preliminary Results
                   of Country Study on Climate Change

                      RNDr. Bedrich Moldan et al.,

                National Climate Program of the Czech Republic
________________________________________________________________________

     SUMMARY: This document gives basic information about the Czech
     Country Study as of February 28, 1995. This report describes the
     results of the greenhouse gas inventory for 1990, and also includes
     an analysis of the potential effects of climate change on
     agriculture, forestry, water resources, and human health, as well
     as an overview of measures that have been carried out and are
     planned to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in the
     Czech Republic.
________________________________________________________________________

                           INTRODUCTION

The Czech Country Study has been sponsored by the United
States Government and the Czech Ministry of the Environment. It
is being conducted by the National Climate Program of the
Czech Republic (NKP), an association of several governmental,
academic, and nongovernmental institutions (the Czech
Hydrometeorological Institute, Charles University in Prague,
Masaryk University in Brno, the Academy of Sciences, the Energy
Efficiency Center (SEVEn, an NGO), and others. NKP was created
as the Czech Republic's response to the World Climate Program of
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and was established
on January 1, 1991. The association publishes a series of
studies on different topics dealing with the climate and
protection of the global atmosphere. NKP's secretariat is
located at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in
Prague.

     The Czech Republic's Country Study started on October 1,
1993 and is scheduled to end on September 30, 1995. It consists
of five elements:

--  An inventory of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

--  An assessment of the Czech Republic's vulnerability to
climate change and possible adaptation responses.

--  Development of policy alternatives for mitigating the
production of greenhouse gases.

--  Provide a basis for action plan and coordination of the
project.

--  Dissemination of project results and other outreach activities.

Elements 1 and 2 are almost complete. Elements 3, 4, and 5 are
in progress.

     The National Climate Program's work on the Czech
Republic's Country Study served as background material for the
Czech Republic's First Communication. This document reported on
the national process to comply with commitments made under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
and was submitted to the Convention's Interim Secretariat in
October 1994. In this summary we present the main findings of
relevant study elements.

         INVENTORY OF SOURCES AND SINKS OF GREENHOUSE GASES

For several years the REZZO Inventory/1/ has been conducted in
the Czech Republic. Work has continued on applying the
CORINAIR/2/ System, and on the recommendation of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the IPCC/OECD
Methodology has been used. While the gases addressed in all
these methodologies are almost the same (REZZO does not monitor
CO<2>, NO<2>, and individual methane), the breakdown of sources and
the default emissions coefficients differ considerably.

     This inventory has been compiled using the IPCC
methodology (categorization of sources and certain emissions
factors with proven coefficients specifically for local
conditions were unavailable), combined with data from other
methods (CORINAIR and REZZO), and some data acquired
specifically for this report. The following classification of
sources was used:

--  Energy sector (combustion and fugitive processes)

--  Industrial processes

--  Agriculture

--  Managed forests

--  Waste

The MINERGG Program was not used for the emissions
calculations themselves, because it does not allow for a fine
enough categorization of sources, especially in the energy
sector. For inventory calculations, a standard spreadsheet
program was used.

     Total emissions are summarized in Table 1. The
estimation of the contribution to the greenhouse effect was made
using the total potential for global warming (GWP). The largest
share, almost 78 percent, comes from CO<2>.

Carbon Dioxide

The largest source of this most important greenhouse gas is
the energy sector, which accounts for 97 percent. The second
largest source is cement production at 2.5 percent. The only
sink (forests) seems to be almost negligible in the total
balance (sink of 2.3 million tons, i.e. about 1.2 percent). The
current estimate of emissions of 167 million tons is  3 percent
higher than the results of the previous inventory published a
few years ago. The difference is negligible given that the
uncertainty of emissions is estimated at 5-15  percent. It is
also minor in comparison with an almost  5-percent difference
between estimates following the CORINAIR and IPCC methods. 

Methane

The most significant source is the energy sector, with a
dominant share of emissions resulting from coal mining (51
percent of total emitted methane). Two other important sources
with nearly equivalent levels of emissions (about 20 percent)
are agriculture and waste management. Total emissions of 941
million tons are less than half of the preliminary estimate. 
The differences are mainly due to changes in the estimate of
emissions from the distribution and processing of natural gas
and crude oil.

Nitrogen Oxides and Carbon Monoxide

Emissions of these gases are less significant. The major
source is the energy sector because of the large amount of
burned fuels. Chlorofluorocarbons represent the second most
significant group of gases (after CO<2>). Their significant share
(14.3 percent) in 1990, however, has markedly declined since
that time as a result of measures evoked by the Montreal Protocol.

                 POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR MITIGATING
                 THE PRODUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Basic Characteristics of the Czech Republic's Economic Structure:
Primary mitigation efforts are focused on reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. Many possibilities exist, due to the very high
level of energy consumption in the current Czech economy, a
legacy from the past. The former Czech economy supported the
consumption of energy and other natural resources and stressed
the primary role of mining (mainly brown coal, lignite, etc.),
heavy and chemical industry, and other energy-intensive economic
activities.

     The current economy is in a state of transition from
a planned to a market economy. A logical consequence of that is
a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in recent years and
restructuring of the economy with some signs of revival. The
share of industry in the total economy has fallen from 56.7
percent to 49.6 percent.  The share of the service sector has
grown from 27.4 percent to 35.5 percent. Total energy
consumption has been decreasing since 1989, but the consumption
of one fuel (gas) has risen.

Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Legislative and Normative Measures Implemented: The law on atmospheric
protection was passed on 1991 and has been gradually amended
(the last amendment was on 1994). Accompanying regulations set strict
criteria for reducing all basic pollutants. Converting fuels also
reduces CO<2> emissions. The results of legislative measures are
a reduction of emissions in large electric powerplants (by retiring
sources that are neither economically nor technically feasible and
modernizing existing plants) and in heating plants (modernizing
operations). The scenario assumes an emissions reduction of 13.3 million
tons by the year 2000 from 1990 levels (an 8 percent
reduction).

     Energy savings can be achieved in the residential sector by
reducing the maximum values of the heat seepage coefficient.
According to the Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic and
the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Czech Republic (1994), this
method allows for savings of 30-50 percent of the energy designated for
heating. This figure corresponds to a reduction of CO<2> emissions by
another 0.5-1 percent.

     A vital condition for limiting the emissions of
greenhouse gases from energy processes is the consumer's
efficient use of energy.  A decree was passed that sets the
responsibility to ensure the metering of heat and hot water at
the output point of the source, at the entry point to every
building and on every appliance, or rather for every consumer of
hot water.

     Cogeneration of heat and electricity considerably increases
the total efficiency of electric powerplants. Currently, it
is mandatory to purchase electricity from these cogeneration
plants.

Financially Supported Measures Already Implemented

The existing tax system involves, for example,
reduced value-added tax (5 percent) for equipment that
produces alternative energy sources. Biopetroleum and bio-gas
fuels are exempt from consumption taxes. Equipment for the
production of alternative energies is exempt from income tax for
five years from the start of operation. Structures and property
serving solely for the production of these energies are exempt
from property tax. Automobiles meeting emissions limits or
with electric motors are exempt from the road tax.

     Heat conservation programs in residential buildings,
conversion to more environmentally benign space and water
heating systems, and energy-efficient lighting are financially
supported.

     Within the framework of subsidy policies, the
Ministry of Agriculture helps forest owners to plant forests
when it limits agricultural production and other planting
efforts. The Agrarian and Forestry Guarantee Fund gives
guarantees and pays some of the interest payments on bank loans,
as long as the applicant's income is predominantly from
agricultural and forestry original production.

Legislative and Normative Measures Prepared
and Under Consideration

The government of the Czech Republic is preparing a
new industrial policy that will increase the speed of changes
in sectoral structure. It will also increase the speed with
which technology is replaced. This policy will focus on the
long term and especially on small support programs. Legislative
changes will also be included. The law on energy management
would affect the policy on energy utilities as well as provide a
legal foundation for efficiency programs. As part of the
national energy policy, energy subsidies will gradually be
eliminated, with the exception of the subsidy of household heat.

     Normative energy labeling for consumer goods is being prepared.
A natural part of this system is the introduction of standards
(a ban, or rather the imposition of a high tax or fine) that
will limit the appearance of inefficient appliances on the market.

Financially Supported Measures in Preparation

The Ministry of the Environment has prepared a program to
support conversion of heating systems. The program primarily
involves the conversion of fuels for small and midsized heating
sources.  In the transportation sector, a range of programs is
being prepared to optimize traffic on selected street sections,
limit transportation in cities, and gradually implement
mandatory catalyzers, etc. Program support, both financial and
normative, is being prepared for recycling and the use of biogas
from dump sites.

     An energy audit is the first step in a comprehensive
energy efficiency project. Many companies in the Czech Republic
are already performing these audits. Subsidy support should
enable even those with limited financial resources to
afford comprehensive efficiency measures.

                ASSESSMENT OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC'S
                 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE
                AND POSSIBLE ADAPTATION RESPONSES

Regional Scenarios

The climatological baseline was defined as the period
1961-1990. Data included daily and monthly mean temperatures,
precipitation, and solar radiation.

     Equilibrium versions of GCMs (GISS, GFDL, CCCM, and a
GFDL transient) was used for monthly average data for 1 x CO<2>,
and 2 x CO<2>. A climate data base was provided by the U.S.
Country Studies Program.

     Before the climate change scenarios were developed, the
validity of the GCM outputs in this region was evaluated. This
evaluation was conducted from two standpoints: GCM-simulated
temperature and precipitation patterns were compared with
current climate data throughout Europe; and simulated annual
patterns of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were
compared with both the climate data and average annual patterns
assessed for a number of stations. The results are summarized
in the report prepared by Kalvova and Nemesova (1994). The GISS
and CCCM models were considered most suitable for constructing
the GCM-based scenarios. There are two variants of the Czech
Republic scenarios: GISS-based and CCCM-based. The GISS variant
is given as an example in Table 2. The values of the variables
in the GCM-based scenarios are understandably questionable. 
This was the reason for studying the sensitivity of the impact
results to arbitrarily chosen changes in temperature and
precipitation. For this purpose, an incremental scenario was
suggested.

Hydrology and Water Resources

Four watersheds were selected (sizes range from 100 to 5100
sq km), and the state of two water supply reservoirs was
examined.  The following hydrological variables were used: mean
annual runoff, seasonal runoff changes, minimum monthly
flows, groundwater and soil water storage. Water management was
taken into account. Three water balance models were used in
the sensitivity study: BILAN, CLIRUN and SACRAMENTO. One
hundred and twenty eight simulations were performed, using
inputs provided by the incremental scenario. The simulation
outputs differ significantly. The annual runoff, however,
proved to be sensitive to seasonal distribution of precipitation
changes when compared to the influences of temperature changes.

The main findings are as follows:

--  The extent of runoff reduction differs according to
    the scenarios and models used. However, most of the results
    achieved by different simulation approaches show a similar
    decreasing runoff tendency related to gradual warming. At a
    warming of 2oC and unchanged precipitation, the original value
    of runoff would decrease by about 10-25 percent and at a 4oC
    warming, by 25-30 percent, depending on the hydrological
    character of the watershed. In the case of the least favorable
    scenario (i.e., concurrent temperature increase and total
    precipitation decrease of 5 percent), the reductions would reach
    30-50 percent of the original value (see Table 3). In times of
    drought, the reductions for runoff minima can be expected to be
    even greater.

--  Given the already mentioned relatively low reliability
    of GCMs for estimates of precipitation changes, this study
    gave priority to incremental scenarios for strategic
    considerations.  Although it is a simplified approach, the use
    of these scenarios provided useful information about the
    sensitivity of hydrological conditions in water bodies to the
    effects of climate change.  According to the results, it is
    possible to conclude that these effects will be more evident in
    water bodies with smaller precipitation totals, while water
    resources with large precipitation totals show relatively less
    sensitivity. Under these conditions, considerable changes in
    water level would result in medium water flows. These
    observations enable at least a rough categorization of
    individual watersheds in the Czech Republic. The effect of
    climate change is much more evident in the water management of
    reservoirs, the source of the drinking water supply, than in
    individual hydrological processes.

Agriculture

The estimate of the possible impacts on agricultural
production in the Czech Republic was based on the regional
scenario of climate change to the year 2030. In that year there
should be an increase in the average air temperature of about
2oC and a decrease in precipitation not exceeding 8 percent of
current totals. Additional variants of the scenario were also
used, however, allowing for different variations of air
temperature and precipitation change.

    The expected increase in the concentration of CO<2> will have
a direct impact on agricultural production. By the use of
models, this influence was verified for selected grassy plants
and winter wheat. At a doubled concentration of CO<2> and
unchanged current climate conditions, usable agricultural
production of the aboveground parts of grassy plants would
increase by about 29-42 percent. For winter wheat this figure
would be 10-37 percent.  These calculations were made according
to the DSSAT 3 Model. A considerable increase in the production
of biomass should be accompanied by the allocation of a large
share of dry matter into roots. Given the slower rate of
decomposition for plant biomass, it can be expected that the
soil will be permanently enriched with organic material and that
the humus content will increase.

     In addition to the direct effect of CO<2> increase, plant
production will be markedly influenced by a change in climate
conditions themselves. The expected warming will appear as an increase
in effective temperatures. This should contribute to the expansion of
the warmest areas in the Czech Republic. Up to the year 2030,
periods without frost can be expected to extend by 20-30 days. 
This means that in many areas the start of the vegetation period
will move up to the beginning of March and the end of the period
will be delayed to the end of October. The current vegetation
growth period in most of the country is from April to September.
The ripening or harvest time could be moved up by at least 10-14
days. Yet on the other hand, planting vegetation earlier in the
spring can increase the danger of the plants being harmed by
spring frost. The expected temperature increase should thus
create sufficient temperature conditions for growing
thermophilic plants. Yet there is also a serious danger of
temperature stress by more frequent extreme high temperatures.
Without a more marked increase in precipitation during
the expected growth of evapotranspiration, extensive areas of
the Czech Republic will be more threatened by drought. This
could reduce the amount of harvest in the most productive
areas.

     The expected climate change will bring considerable
changes in the conditions for the development and effects of
agricultural pests and diseases. Temperature increases with
approximately the same level of precipitation generally mean
improved conditions for their development. This change will
also appear in the conditions of the soil, which has been
damaged by unsuitable management during socialism. This mainly
concerns damage of the physical state of the subsoil, reduced
water-retention ability of the soil, and its microbial activity.
Letting fields become overgrown with weeds that are persistent
is also a great danger.  Many of these weeds are more resistant
to drought than agricultural plants are.

Forestry

In the Czech Republic, the expected increases in temperature
and changes in the totals and distribution of precipitation
would have a significant effect on the composition of
forest ecosystems, on the expansion of the tree-covered area,
and on the increase in the number of trees. The overall
temperature increase would move the top tree border in the
mountains and lead to a greater number of thermophilic trees,
especially in lower areas. It would also mean that trees that
are naturally found primarily in cooler mountain areas, such as
the Norway Spruce, would begin to disappear from this area. It
is anticipated that with an overall temperature increase of
1-2oC in the Czech Republic, the composition of forest growth
would be closer to the composition in more southern areas, where
the current climate is similar to that expected in the Czech
Republic. Temperature is not the decisive factor in expanding
tree-covered area and increasing the number of trees. Of
primary importance are precipitation totals and their occurrence
during the year.

     The studies conducted are based on the analysis
of the current state of forests in the Czech Republic (National
Climate Program of the Czech Republic, 1995). This analysis
addresses the vulnerability of forests, biotic stressors, and
the non-wood production functions of forests. Studies for two
small-area pilot regions were also conducted.

Human Health

An analysis of the relationship between circulatory diseases
and climate characteristics shows that the effect of climate
change on human health in the conditions of the Czech Republic
will not be very significant.

                              CONCLUSIONS

Results of the Czech Country Study to date include the
inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in the Czech Republic, an
evaluation of measures to reduce these emissions, and an
analysis of the vulnerability of managed water bodies, managed
forests, and agriculture to climate change (see Table 4). The
results of the inventory were used in the First National
Communication (Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic
and Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Czech Republic, 1994).
The vulnerability analysis is ready for submission to the
appropriate ministries. The results to date have been judged to
be stimulating and valuable.


ENDNOTES

1. REZZO Register of Emissions and Air Pollutant Sources. 

2. CORINAIR = CORINE (COoRdination d'INformation
Environnementale) + AIR Emissions Inventory,
European Union Program for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

REFERENCES

Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic and Ministry
of Industry and Trade of the Czech Republic. 1994. The
Czech Republic's First Communication on the National Process to
Comply With Commitments Under the UN FCCC. Ministry of the
Environment of the Czech Republic and Ministry of Industry and
Trade of the Czech Republic.

Kalvova, J. and Nemesova, I. 1994. Climate Change Scenarios
for the Czech Republic. Budapest Workshop (in publication).

National Climate Program of the Czech Republic, 1995.
Regional Study of Climate Change in the Czech Republic. Element
2 (Czech Republic Country Study, Element 2).
--Climate Change Scenarios for the Czech Republic
--Sectoral Summary Report for Agriculture
--Sectoral Summary Report for Hydrology and Water Resources
--Sectoral Summary Report for Forestry
--Sectoral Summary Report for Human Health Summary reports are
  only in Czech.

Tichy, M., P. Dvorak, and Z. Vorackova. Inventory of
the Greenhouse Gases. SEVEn Report No. 94/013a. Prague 1994.

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