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ANGOLA Key Economic Indicators (Millions of U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted) 1993 1994 1995 Income, Production and Employment Nominal GDP 7,218 7,920 N/A Real GDP Growth (percent) -23 9.7 N/A GDP by Sector: Agriculture and Fisheries 19.7 12.0 N/A Extractive 3,540 50,900 N/A Oil and LPG 3,440 49,900 N/A Diamonds 100 1,000 N/A Manufacturing 4.6 3.4 N/A Construction 1.9 1.6 N/A Services 19.7 18.3 N/A Trade 13.6 10.1 N/A Transport/Communications 2.9 2.2 N/A Import Duties 2.1 1.5 N/A Net Exports of Goods and Services -636 -980 N/A Nominal GDP Per Capita (US$) 756 810 N/A Population (000s) 9,545 9,780 10,070 Money and Prices Money Supply (M2) 359 336 253 1/ Base Interest Rate 2/ 16 16 120 Retail Inflation Rate (Luanda) 1,840 972 444 3/ Consumer Price Index (Luanda) 31,834 341,218 1,855,500 3/ Exchange Rate (NKZ/US$) (end-of-period) Official-Primary 6,500 493,484 5,920 4/ Parallel 106,000 996,129 10,000 4/ Informal N/A N/A 14,000 4/ Balance of Payments and Trade Total Exports FOB 2,901 3,001 N/A Exports to U.S. 2,090 2,061 488.7 1/ Total Imports CIF 1,463 1,633 N/A Imports from U.S. FAS 168 197 40.6 1/ AID from U.S. 56 87 93 AID from other countries 160 163 100 5/ External Public Debt 6/ 9,927 11,050 N/A Debt Service Payments (paid) 583 N/A N/A Debt Rescheduled 46 161 N/A Foreign Exchange Reserves 206 192 180 1/ Trade Balance 1,438 1,368 N/A Balance with U.S. 1,921 1,864 448 1/ 1/ January to March 1995. 2/ Active operations: 180-360 day credit. 3/ January to August 1995. 4/ KZR rate on November 15, 1995. The KZR replaced the NKZ in July 1995 dropping three 0's from values expressed in NKZ. Angola - 2 5/ January to October 20, 1995. 6/ Long, medium, and short term debt plus arrears. 1. General Policy Framework The Republic of Angola is potentially one of Africa's wealthiest countries. Relatively sparsely populated, it has great hydrocarbon and mineral resources, huge hydroelectric potential, and ample arable land. Civil war between the Government of Angola and the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) from 1975 until November 1994 wreaked havoc and prevented the country from realizing its economic potential. In addition to extreme disruptions caused by conflict, a severe lack of managerial and technical talent has hampered economic performance. Misguided and ineffective attempts at socialist economic planning and centralized decision-making further hindered development. Administrative chaos, corruption, and hyperinflation have vitiated normal economic activity and attempts at reform. Urban populations swollen by internally-displaced persons have subsisted largely on humanitarian food aid or parallel market activity. The rural population carves out a living in marginal security, surviving by subsistence farming. As a result of the near total absence of domestic production outside the oil sector most food and other consumer items are imported. Of the country's productive sectors, only the oil sector, jointly run by foreign oil companies and the state oil firm Sonangol, has remained well-managed and prosperous. Angola currently produces about 660,000 barrels per day of crude, accounting for the majority of GDP, over 90 percent of exports, and nearly 90 percent of government revenues. The signing of the Lusaka Protocol peace accord in November 1994 provides hope for economic recovery. The Protocol provides for a ceasefire, the creation of unified armed forces, and a government of national reconciliation. The peace process is being implemented under the supervision of a United Nations Peacekeeping Mission with the assistance of three observer nations, the United States, Portugal, and Russia. The long-term effects of the war, the destruction of infrastructure, and years of economic mismanagement remain to be addressed. The end of the conflict should portend economic stabilization and growth, with some "peace dividend." Nevertheless, reconstruction is likely to be a long and arduous process. Considerable expense will be required for the creation of the unified army, reintegration into civilian society of demobilized soldiers, disarmament, de-mining, reconstruction of roads and other infrastructure, resettlement of dislocated populations, and rehabilitation of essential services. Beginning in 1987, the government has launched various programs aimed at privatization, liberalization, devaluation Angola - 3 of the Kwanza, and new rigor in financial management. Most of these programs have enjoyed little success in implementation. A poorly thought-out liberalization of the diamond-mining industry resulted in official diamond exports declining from $286 million in 1992 to $31 million in 1993. Official diamond exports climbed back to about $75 million in 1995, but the major part of the estimated $800-900 million production of diamonds left the country through unofficial channels. The government's 1994 and 1995 Economic and Social Programs have been favorably received by donor nations and financial institutions, but their execution remains disappointing. Angola is a contracting party to the GATT and is seeking accession to the WTO. The government budget, perpetually in deficit from heavy military expenditures, price controls, and other non-productive spending, ballooned to 38 percent of GDP in 1992 and 32 percent of GDP in 1993. The budget remained at 34 percent of GDP and the deficit alone reached 22 percent of GDP in 1994. The deficit has been financed by increasing the money supply and resorting to very expensive, oil-backed, short-term lending from commercial banks. Shortages, price controls, hyperinflation, and continuing erosion of confidence in the national currency encourage parallel market activity and widespread dependence on barter or dollar transactions. The oil sector, the only functional part of the Angolan economy managed by the government and largely isolated from the civil war because of off-shore production, has been the focus of U.S.-Angolan trade and investment. The U.S. buys about 75 percent of Angola's petroleum exports (accounting for 7 percent of U.S. petroleum imports) and equipment for the oil sector accounts for much of U.S. sales to Angola. Angola is the United States' third largest trading partner in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the country's huge potential, lasting peace and genuine economic liberalization could provide substantial opportunities for U.S. trade and investment, particularly in communications, energy, and transportation sectors. 2. Exchange Rate Policy From 1978 to September 1990, the government maintained the official exchange rate for the Kwanza, a non-convertible currency, at 29 Kwanzas to the dollar. The New Kwanza (NKZ) replaced the Kwanza at par in September 1990 and was gradually devalued to NKZ 550 to the dollar by April 1992. To narrow the gap between the official rate and a parallel market rate still several times higher, the government adopted a program of auctions in late 1992 and early 1993 that led to the further devaluation of the currency to NKZ 7,000 to the dollar. In 1994, the government began a program of foreign exchange selling at "fixing" sessions in which the central Angola - 4 bank and commercial banks participate. The "official-primary" rate which results is used for interbank operations. A slightly higher "official-secondary" rate is earmarked for transactions between commercial banks and the public, but in general this rate is available only to people with privileged access to government officials. By early 1995, the official rate reached NKZ 500,000 to the dollar. Meanwhile, the parallel market rate rose to over NKZ 1,500,000 to the dollar. In late May 1995 the government moved the official exchange rate to within 95 percent of the parallel market rate at NKZ 2,200,000 to the dollar, and in July 1995 the Readjusted Kwanza (KZR) replaced the New Kwanza dropping three zero's from the prices, wages, accounts, and notes denominated in New Kwanza. Exchange rates thus changed from approximately NKZ 2,200,000 to the dollar to KZR 2,200 to the dollar. Due to continued hyperinflation the parallel exchange rate rose to over KZR 10,000 to the dollar by November, while the official rate remained at KZR 5,920. Foreign exchange can be obtained at the parallel rate from commercial banks and licensed exchange houses. Rates up to 40 percent higher than the parallel rate can be obtained in the widespread informal market. The government continues to declare its intention to bridge the gap between official and parallel rates through further devaluations. 3. Structural Policies Angola's economic potential remained in flux in 1995. Consolidation of the peace process and rising oil revenues are giving the government the chance to change its priorities from the civil war to social and economic reforms. During 1995 the government continued to focus on bringing down inflation and taking measures to stabilize the budget deficit. It also continued to make the same commitments for economic reform that it periodically has made since 1986: to converge official and parallel currency rates; make transparent the transactions which take place between parastatal oil company Sonangol, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Angola; phase out subsidies on petroleum products and other goods; and have the national bank cease credit operations and become a true central bank. The government continued to take steps to reduce its role in the economy in 1995 and did reduce massive subsidies on fuels. However, after the threat of a general strike in September the government reintroduced subsidies and price controls on 15 essential foodstuffs and consumer products. It also continues to subsidize heavily public transport, electricity and other utilities, and to regulate profit margins on the sale of numerous products. While the government has publicly declared its desire for IMF balance of payments assistance, in December 1995 the IMF cancelled a monitoring program because of Angolan non-performance. Angola - 5 4. Debt Management Policies The government began substantial foreign borrowing in the early 1980's, principally to finance large oil sector investments. Prior to the 1986 slump in international oil prices, the government scrupulously met its foreign debt commitments, even those contracted prior to independence. However, subsequent large payment arrears have forced major western export credit agencies to suspend or highly restrict cover to the country. The government continues to finance part of its fiscal deficit through oil-backed, short-term commercial borrowings, but pays interest rates up to three times normal rates for such financing. Total foreign debt is estimated at over $10 billion, significantly higher than GDP and more than three times annual exports. Debt arrears are estimated at over $4.2 billion of which a little over $1 billion were accumulated in 1994 alone; $1.3 billion is owed to Paris Club creditors. Approximately half of the debt is owed to the former Soviet Union and its former satellites for military purchases between 1975 and 1991. In 1989, Angola joined the IMF and the World Bank, and was able to secure the rescheduling of over $1.8 billion in Paris Club and other debt. Creditors rescheduled $669 million of Angola's debt in 1990, but only about $40 million in each of 1991, 1992, and 1993, and another $161 million in 1994. The government has admitted that it will be unable to lighten its debt burden further failing an agreement with the IMF on structural adjustment of the economy. The lack of adequate information about petroleum-backed borrowing continues to be an obstacle to further discussions on renegotiating Paris Club debt. 5. Significant Barriers to U.S. Exports Since the sharp decline of its coffee and diamond sectors, Angola's ability to import has depended entirely on oil earnings and has been severely constrained by the diversion of resources to military spending. The lack of customers with access to foreign exchange, together with Angola's poor international financial reputation, presents sizable challenges for U.S. suppliers of goods and services. All imports are subject to licensing. In October 1995, the government announced that import licenses would no longer routinely be granted after the fact. All imported merchandise worth $5,000 or more -- whether paid for in foreign currency or not -- must now be inspected by Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) before the goods can be offloaded in Angola. Import licenses are granted only to registered enterprises of proven technical, commercial, and financial capacity, are issued on the basis of a foreign exchange allocation and are restricted to imports of goods for which Angola - 6 the enterprise is registered. To obtain a license, enterprises must present offers of three foreign suppliers to the sectoral ministries and to the Ministry of Commerce. The approved offer may be considered for an import license application which, in turn, must be approved by the same ministries. Export of certain goods are prohibited and special export regimes apply to several others. Re-exports of goods other than capital goods and personal belongings are also prohibited. Restrictions apply to the exportation of products that are in short domestic supply. All other exports are subject to prior licensing. State-owned firms in some service industries have in the recent past attempted to keep out foreign competition, sometimes with success. Foreign investment regulations enacted since the late 1980's have aimed at opening more sectors to foreign investment and at simplifying the process for potential investors. However, under the Foreign Investment Law of September 1994, foreign investment is still prohibited or limited in defense, law and order, banking, public telecommunications, energy, media, education, health, and transport. Direct investments in the oil sector are encouraged. All capital transfers are subject to licensing and control. Dividends and capital may be repatriated upon liquidation with the prior approval of the Ministry of Finance. Angola is "off cover" for trade finance from the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. (Ex-Im) because of the country's outstanding arrears of about $16 million and the elevated business risk in Angola. However, specific projects in the oil sector in Cabinda will be considered on a project-by-project basis by Ex-Im for support. The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) signed an investment incentive agreement with Angola in 1994. OPIC lists Angola among the countries where its investment finance and insurance programs are generally available. The U.S. Department of Agriculture made $12 million in agricultural export loan guarantees available to Angola for the purchase of U.S. agricultural products under the P.L. 480 Title I Program in 1995. The U.S. government continues to prohibit the transfer of U.S.-origin lethal material to all entities in Angola, and to prohibit by executive order the transfer of all defense articles and petroleum products to UNITA. The U.S. has lifted the restriction on the private transfer of U.S.-origin non-lethal defense articles to the Government of Angola, with a presumption of approval of applications for export licenses for such transfers. 6. Export Subsidies Policies No export subsidy schemes currently exist. Angola - 7 7. Protection of U.S. Intellectual Property Legislation passed in 1992 provides for patents, trademarks, and copyrights, but the government does not have the resources to enforce these laws. The small-scale sale of counterfeited and pirated consumer goods does not significantly impact on U.S. trade. The Republic of Angola joined the World Intellectual Property Organization in 1985. 8. Worker Rights a. The Right of Association: The constitution provides for the right to form and join trade unions, but the government does not respect this right in practice. The law requires labor unions to be recognized by the government. Government dominates the labor movement through the National Union of Angolan Workers (UNTA), the labor organ of the ruling MPLA. Restrictions on civil liberties effectively restrict labor activity against the will of the government. b. The Right to Organize and Bargain Collectively: The constitution provides workers the right to organize and to strike, and the law provides for collective bargaining, but the government does not respect these rights in practice. Despite stated commitments to decentralization and privatization the government continues to dominate the economy through state-run enterprises. The Ministry of Public Administration, Employment and Social Security sets wages and benefits. Salaries for public servants are set at the Minister's discretion. Salaries of parastatal employees are based on profits of the previous year and loans available from the central bank. The law prohibits lockouts and worker occupation of places of employment and provides protection for nonstriking workers. It prohibits strikes by military and police personnel, prison workers, and firemen. The law does not effectively prohibit retribution against strikers. c. Prohibition of Forced or Compulsory Labor: Current law authorizing forced labor for breaches of worker discipline and participation in strikes has been cited by the ILO as a violation of Convention 105. The government indicated in 1993 that it planned to introduce legislation that would prohibit forced labor, but it had not done so by November 1995. d. Minimum Age for Employment of Children: The legal minimum age for employment is 14. However, many younger children work on family farms, as domestic servants and in the informal economy. Thousands more young children have been conscripted into the Angolan Armed Forces and UNITA's guerrilla army. e. Acceptable Conditions of Work: The minimum wage is equivalent to less than $1.00 per month and the average salary Angola - 8 is the equivalent of approximately $6.00 per month. As a result, many wage-earners depend on the thriving informal sector, subsistence farming, theft, corruption, or support from relatives abroad in order to survive. A 1994 government decree established a 37-hour workweek. However, inadequate resources prevented the government from enforcing this standard and other occupational health and safety standards. Workers cannot remove themselves from dangerous work situations without jeopardy to continued employment. f. Rights in Sectors with U.S. Investment: U.S. investment in Angola is concentrated in the petroleum sector. Workers in the oil sector earn salaries far greater than those in almost every other sector of the Angolan economy. Workers in the petroleum sector have the same limitations on the rights of association, organization, and collective bargaining as workers in other sectors of the economy. The petroleum industry does not employ under-age children. Extent of U.S. Investment in Selected Industries.--U.S. Direct Investment Position Abroad on an Historical Cost Basis--1994 (Millions of U.S. dollars) Category Amount Petroleum (1) Total Manufacturing 0 Food & Kindred Products 0 Chemicals and Allied Products 0 Metals, Primary & Fabricated 0 Machinery, except Electrical 0 Electric & Electronic Equipment 0 Transportation Equipment 0 Other Manufacturing 0 Wholesale Trade 0 Banking 0 Finance/Insurance/Real Estate (1) Services (2) Other Industries 0 TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES 576 (1) Suppressed to avoid disclosing data of individual companies. (2) Indicates a value between $-500,000 and $500,000. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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