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DEPARTMENT OF STATE DAILY PRESS BRIEFING DPC #69 THURSDAY, MAY 13, 1993, 12:44 P.M. (ON THE RECORD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED) MR. BOUCHER: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. One announcement to make for you: We will have a briefing in this room at 2:30* this afternoon on this round of Middle East peace talks. The briefer will be Assistant Secretary Edward Djerejian. He'll be ON-THE- RECORD to explain all the ins and outs of the process, or at least some of them, for you this afternoon; 2:30 in this room, anybody who wants to be here. Q. Does that mean you're not prepared to entertain any questions about the peace process? MR. BOUCHER: That means I'd like to defer on the peace process to somebody who is better qualified to answer questions than I am. But I'd be glad to take any other questions you have, George. Q. Richard, I noticed an interesting discrepancy in what Mr. Christopher said today about Bosnia and what he said on May 1, which was the day that he gave his briefing at the White House prior to leaving on his European mission, and it concerns the aim of U.S. policy. On May 1, he said that the aim was to respond to the violence, stop the aggression, and contain the conflict. Today, he used the phrase, on two occasions, "reduce the level of violence." Are we no longer trying to stop the aggression? Have our ambitions -- your ambitions, I should say -- been somewhat lowered? MR. BOUCHER: Alan, I don't think that's an accurate rendition of the Secretary's remarks. I have to say, I don't have the transcript with me so I can't go through exactly what the question was and what the answer was. But, no, our aim continues to be to stop the killing, to find a negotiated solution, and keep the conflict from spreading. Q. In addition to that, the Secretary and the President have noticeably dropped some of the phraseology which they were using last week, which has to do with what the U.S. is considering and desirous of the allies, saying that the U.S. *Note: Spokesman later announced time change to 3:45 p.m. is considering increasing the pressure on them, including military steps. That particular phrase is gone from their comments now. Is that because the U.S. has stopped considering military steps? MR. BOUCHER: No, John. The options that we have discussed in the past, the options that we've discussed with the Europeans during the Secretary's trip last week, are still on the table. We are dealing with a dynamic situation, and there continue to be developments which affect the course of progress. But I think I would have to say, there's some indications that the sanctions and the other pressures that we're bringing, including our discussion of what further might be required, are having some effect on the situation. The Bosnian Serbs are increasingly isolated, including from their natural allies. The Serbian leadership -- President Milosevic -- has taken some distance from them. The European Community has proposed monitors to go to the border areas to see that Mr. Milosevic lives up to his word, and that's certainly something we think is a good idea. We're watching to see what happens on that border, to see if he is, indeed, going to cut off the Bosnian Serbs. We're watching the outcome of the referendum to which we don't attach any particular legitimacy ourselves but which some others have attached a certain degree of importance. We've made clear I think during the course of this week that we're looking at other options, including ones that might further help the goal of containing the situation. But, basically, we've been telling you where we are, and that's that we've agreed with our European friends and allies that stronger measures will be necessary -- could be necessary -- if we all conclude that the Bosnian Serbs have rejected the prospects of a negotiated settlement. We are discussing with them what precisely those measures might be. Nothing is excluded, as these Europeans have made clear, and the options that we've been discussing with them over the course of the last week or so are still on the table. Q And the word "military" hasn't come out of your mouth? MR. BOUCHER: Including military action. Q Richard, you just said that if he is, indeed, going to cut off the supplies to the Bosnian Serbs, that hints of a future tense, so is that intentional? At this point, do you believe he has not cut off -- what is your assessment of the flow of equipment, supplies, and fuel over the border now? MR. BOUCHER: At this point, it's an assessment that is basically mixed results. There are reports from some areas that traffic has been diminished across that border. There are also other reports that indicate that vehicles and supplies continue to cross the border. So he's said that the border will be closed, and we're continuing to watch that situation. We expect him to keep his word. Q So is the border closed? It doesn't look like it. MR. BOUCHER: No, not completely. There are some places where the traffic appears to have gone down, but we do know that supplies and traffic continue to cross. Q North Korea is defying -- Q I would like to ask about Macedonia, since the President made a statement, talking about the fact that peacekeepers or U.S. troops could be sent, or was under consideration that they would be sent to Macedonia. I just wonder why advantage wasn't taken of the presence in the United States, in New York, of the Macedonian President to have a high-level meeting with him? He was due to come to Washington today to give a talk at the Carnegie Endowment, and I'm told that he cancelled when he couldn't get a meeting with Mr. Christopher. MR. BOUCHER: Alan, I don't know what his private plans were, but certainly we keep in touch with the Macedonians. The Secretary and he -- the schedules didn't work out for them to have a meeting, but the Secretary talked to him on the phone Tuesday evening. He talked to the Macedonian President in order to keep in touch, in order to talk about -- to congratulate him on the U.N. membership, talk about how that process is going in terms of the remaining issues that need to be resolved, and to discuss the situation in Macedonia. Q. I saw the Secretary's schedule today, and I noticed there were a few things in there. Certainly, one assumes he's very busy all the time, but as far as public appointments are concerned, there did seem to be a few gaps. And since the President of Macedonia was coming here today anyway, one would have thought that half an hour could have been found in the schedule. I understand that he's left in something of a huff. MR. BOUCHER: Alan, once again, I'm not personally familiar with all the details of President Gligorov's travel plans. The Secretary, as you know, had a busy day Tuesday. He went to New York yesterday; has just come back. He does have other appointments other than the ones on his schedule. I can't give you the blow-by-blow of the different attempts that were made, or what times might have worked or not worked for each one of the other of them, but the Secretary did want to maintain contact with him, did want to talk to him, and called him on Tuesday night to talk to him. They had a useful conversation, a friendly conversation; one that covered a number of issues that are important to both of us. Q But the timing, as Alan was saying, is striking. You have the President saying he's considering or preparing to send American troops. Macedonia's security is important enough to perhaps send American ground forces to Macedonia, and yet you couldn't work out a time for more than a telephone call with the leader of that now supposedly vital country? MR. BOUCHER: Terry, we have stressed a number of times the importance of Macedonia. The Secretary did want to make sure he got a chance to talk to President Gligorov, and it was for that reason that he talked to him on the telephone. I would not draw any conclusions -- certainly, not any pejorative conclusions -- from the fact that they weren't able to meet in person. Q Did they discuss dispatch of American troops? MR. BOUCHER: They discussed the stories that appeared in the press. President Gligorov, I think, asked about it and the Secretary told him that no decisions had been made. Q As far as stories in the press, Macedonian officials are quoted as saying, "Why send troops here," basically. MR. BOUCHER: You know that all along we've been very concerned about the possibility of spillover. It's important that this conflict not be allowed to spread to other areas. We've been concerned about the welfare, the status of Macedonia. We've tried to work closely over time with the Macedonians. We have had international monitors, I think, there. We have an UNPROFOR contingent that's already there and we're looking for other ways that we can increase the international presence in Macedonia as well as Kosovo. Q Richard, all along what the Macedonians have said they really want is recognition. Can you just reiterate for us why the United States has not seen fit to recognize Macedonia yet? MR. BOUCHER: We've been looking for a solution to be worked out, that can be acceptable to all the parties that have an interest in this. As you know, we were very pleased that the Macedonians were able to move into the United Nations. That was one of the things the Secretary discussed with the Macedonian President on Tuesday evening -- how to proceed with the remaining issues that need to be resolved. Q But when you say all the parties with an interest in this, are you essentially saying that Greek dissatisfaction over recognition is holding up the process? MR. BOUCHER: The European Community, I think, has been working with the Greeks and with the Macedonians to try to find a solution that could be acceptable, that could move forward to international recognition. Q We talked to both the Bosnian Foreign Minister and the -- the Macedonian Foreign Minister and the U.S. rep for Macedonia on Wednesday. Both of them were with the President of Macedonia and both of them said quite clearly that they had not been contacted by the U.S. Government with this idea for putting American peacekeepers into Macedonia. MR. BOUCHER: At this point, David, no decisions have been made. I would point out to you that it was discussed in a telephone conversation on Tuesday evening between the Secretary and the President of Macedonia. Q What did they say? MR. BOUCHER: I just described to you that the subject came up and they talked about it, and the Secretary informed him that no decision had been made. Q I don't quite get the -- the Secretary is informing them. Isn't he asking them if they want peacekeepers? MR. BOUCHER: There weren't any requests one way or the other at that point. Q So they have not requested peacekeepers? MR. BOUCHER: Again, for their position, I think you have to ask them. There were no requests one way or the other. It was a subject that's been discussed. We have been in close touch with the Macedonians all along. The whole issue of an international presence in Macedonia is not new. But as far as any further proposals or steps that we might make, we haven't made decisions on that at this point. Q What has UNPROFOR told you about the need for additional peacekeepers in Macedonia? MR. BOUCHER: That's not something that I know, and I don't think we would be interested in getting into at this point. UNPROFOR, obviously, has people on the ground there. Q Well, could you take the question of whether -- MR. BOUCHER: I think if you want to question what UNPROFOR thinks about the need for further people on the ground there, I think you better ask UNPROFOR. Q Richard, are you saying this was entirely a scheduling problem and there was no unannounced or unstated reason for there not being a meeting between Christopher and the Macedonian President? MR. BOUCHER: George, I'm not trying to go into great detail about why they weren't able to meet face-to-face. Clearly, they're both busy men. They both have their schedules. The fact is, the Secretary wanted to be able to talk to the President of Macedonia while he was here in the United States and they arranged to do that by telephone. That was a useful and satisfactory arrangement. Q Richard, within the context of the Balkans, what kind of discussions are going on within the NATO framework? And, number two, how would you respond to some congressional concern over NATO vis-a-vis the subject? MR. BOUCHER: I don't quite understand. You're talking -- I mean, NATO has had a role in a variety of ways in the whole crisis -- Q Can you be specific? MR. BOUCHER: NATO has done a lot of planning for various contingencies. They did the planning and now the execution of the "no- fly" zone. They've been doing planning for the possibilities of implementing the Vance-Owen plan. NATO has been a place where we regularly keep in touch with our allies on all the issues involved out there. The Secretary met with the Secretary General of NATO just last week. So we've been having a lot of discussions with NATO and with our NATO allies in the context of NATO meetings. It's a regular way that we keep in touch with people and do essential planning for operations. Q There's some sentiment -- as a follow-up, there's some sentiment on the Hill that this whole scenario might affect the future viability of NATO. How do you respond to congressional concern over that? MR. BOUCHER: Again, this whole scenario might affect the future viability of NATO? Obviously, this whole scenario and what NATO does in the Yugoslav crisis is important to NATO. It's been the subject of many discussions in NATO and certainly it's something that has concerned everybody in the organization. Q Richard, I'd like to step back a little bit and try and get a sense of where the United States is. As I understand it, when the Bush -- when the Clinton Administration took over, it had a re- evaluation, re-examination of Yugoslavia policy which culminated in an announcement on February 10. A few weeks later it had another re- examination which culminated in an announcement on May 1. Do we have -- do you have a policy now, or are you in another re-examination period? MR. BOUCHER: Alan, I think I just described to you where the United States is. We are dealing with a dynamic situation which changes, both on the ground and in terms of the views of other governments on this. The Secretary had a trip just a week ago to put forward the direction that the President had determined. We've said that that still remains in play, that that's still on the table, that the Europeans have not excluded those kinds of options, and that we're also looking at other options that can help in this situation. So where we are is in close consultations and discussions with our allies; agreed that we have to move forward with further measures if the negotiating process falls through, and working with them to define precisely what those measures might be, as well as to bring more pressure on the Serbs and further isolate the Bosnian Serbs. Q But on May 1, the Secretary said that the President had decided on the direction that he thought the United States and the international community should now take, which included a number of specific recommendations, including military steps. Is that still the situation today? MR. BOUCHER: I've just said all those things are still in play. That's still the situation. Q That's still the situation? MR. BOUCHER: Yes. Q Richard, is the U.S. making efforts or preparing to try to send more observers, CSCE observers, into Kosovo, Sandjak or Vojvodina? MR. BOUCHER: We have been working with other governments and allies to try to expand the CSCE mission to Kosovo in particular. We currently have a couple of American diplomats there. We've been working with our allies and continue to urge them and the CSCE to augment the number of monitors in Kosovo. We think that type of international presence can help deter Serbian aggression. So it's something we're working on. Q But does that include further either U.S. diplomats or U.S. military personnel in some presence there as part of some -- MR. BOUCHER: The people that have gone there before have been CSCE monitors, I'm sure we'd be -- you know, in the augmentation of that, we'd certainly consider any obvious role for the United States. Q As I recall it, there are roughly maybe something under two dozen there. That's what the target number had been a while back. I don't know if it's -- MR. BOUCHER: I don't know the total. It was recently increased, but I'm not sure how far it's gotten. Q How much further augmentation is being considered? MR. BOUCHER: I'll have to check on that, Terry. Q Richard, when you say "asking our allies to augment," I mean, is the focus of effort to get them to put more people in, or are we considering putting more people in, too? MR. BOUCHER: Tim, there's been an international discussion, a continued discussion, which we have promoted to get more international monitors into Kosovo. Exactly how many or what precise role the United States would have in this augmentation, I think I have to leave for the moment. But certainly we've played a role so far and would expect to continue to play a role. Q Richard, what do you think of the Russian proposal at the U.N. to put in some 500 monitors on the Bosnia-Serb border? MR. BOUCHER: As I understand it, yesterday the Security Council discussed in informal session a draft resolution that would call for the deployment of U.N. monitors along the border between Bosnia and Serbia. The Council will take up the proposal again on Monday. As we've said before, we support the idea of testing to see that Milosevic lives up to his word in this regard. We believe the presence should be designed to be effective. But it is important, it's a useful idea, an important idea, to try to get people out there to test to see that Milosevic lives up to his word. Q What would make it effective? MR. BOUCHER: Just the design of the numbers and the way they're deployed, and things like that. Q Do they need Milosevic's permission to put them in place? MR. BOUCHER: I'm not sure what he has said on that. It seems to me at some point I saw somebody on the Serbian side welcoming the prospect, but I don't know exactly whether that was Milosevic or what the state of play is. Q But if they were to couple -- if the Serbs were to couple that with a request to seeking to have the sanctions eased as part of a deal to allow monitors on the border, would that be an acceptable trade- off for the U.S.? MR. BOUCHER: Terry, I haven't seen any such proposal. The sanctions exist in order to try to bring pressure on the parties to end the fighting. As I said, we haven't seen this cut-off made effective yet. The results are mixed. The parties are basically required not to supply things into Bosnia by the U.N. resolutions. We expect people to do that, and we would expect to see that lived up to and to see that monitored appropriately. Q The U.S. would provide personnel for border -- part of a border monitoring force? MR. BOUCHER: We wouldn't plan to provide troops for that, but what sort of logistical and material support we might provide would be considered on a case-by-case basis. Q You indicated that you thought that economic sanctions were having some kind of impact on the various political moves which you have seen. Do you have anything to back that up? Any facts, figures, anecdotes? Where do you draw that conclusion from? MR. BOUCHER: I think I can get facts and figures. I'm not sure I can do anecdotes. There are some of the things that I've cited for you, first of all, in terms of behavior and what we've seen between the parties, the fact that Milosevic has taken some distance from the Bosnian Serbs and at least in public made statements and brought some pressure on them, that we have seen some cut-off in the terms of this border traffic, although it's not complete yet, and we would expect it to be complete. Q Do you think that's a result of the sanctions, Milosevic's -- MR. BOUCHER: I think it's a result of the variety of pressures that we're bringing to bear on the situation, including the sanctions. Let me give you a rundown of the impact of the sanctions that we've seen. Serbia's economy has been severely weakened by the sanctions overall. The impact has been more pronounced since the U.N. Security Council Resolution 820 went into effect in late April. (Staff member hands Mr. Boucher a piece of paper.) Oh. I'll tell you that in a minute. It doesn't have to do with this. Inflation has averaged more than 225 percent a month. The industrial sector is reported to be operating at 35 percent of its normal capacity. Infrastructure is deteriorating. The banking system is in crisis with another large private bank, the Dafiment Bank, recently closed after a drawn out bank run. We believe the sanctions are taking a significant toll on the Serbian and Montenegrin economy. The cumulative effects of sanctions are bringing home to the Milosevic regime the enormous cost for its policies. As we've seen in the last week in pronouncements by the Serbian leaders, sanctions are increasingly becoming an element in Serbia's assessment of its policies and may be beginning to limit the options that are available to the Serbian Government. Q New subject? MR. BOUCHER: New subject? Q What's on that piece of paper? MR. BOUCHER: Oh, what's on the piece of paper. We would like to change the briefing by Assistant Secretary Djerejian to 3:45 p.m. Q You still want to make the papers? MR. BOUCHER: We want to do it at a time that's convenient for the briefer to be able to explain things fully and completely to you. O.K. We had a new subject over there. Q Yes. North Korea is defying the U.N. resolution to receive nuclear inspector to the so-called military site, and also if U.N. imposes economic sanctions on North Korea, that will be considered so-called proclamation of war, they said. Do you think that it is appropriate time for you to have high-level political talks with North Korea? MR. BOUCHER: You've put a lot of things in there. Let me try to answer most of them. The passage of the resolution, in our minds, confirms the international community's grave concern about these matters and the dedication of the international community in making every effort to convince North Korea to reaffirm its commitment in the Non- Proliferation Treaty and to live up to its non-proliferation obligations. That, as the resolution said, must include full compliance with its IAEA safeguards agreement, as specified in the Board of Governors resolution at the IAEA of February 25. North Korean officials have been saying they want to resolve the situation. They decided to admit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on May 8 to conduct normal nuclear safeguards activities. That's a positive development, but it falls far short of full compliance of the terms of North Korea's Nuclear Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA, as has been sought by the Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors. As far as further meetings, as you know, our goal remains to work in concert with the international community, to see that the desires of the international community to see North Korea respect its obligations, to see that those desires are fulfilled by North Korea. We've said we're willing to meet with North Korea to help resolve the current situation, but the current situation results from actions taken by North Korea in the nuclear area, and at this point we really don't have anything further for you on that. Q Yesterday, Assistant Secretary Gallucci appeared optimistic about the solution of the North Korean nuclear issue. Is he, the Ambassador, reflecting the other views in the State Department? MR. BOUCHER: I think his remarks, from what I could see in the papers, were very similar to what I said: that North Korea has said it wants to resolve the situation; that North Korea has admitted some inspectors for normal nuclear safeguards activities and that was positive. But that, overall, they still fall far short of meeting the requirements of the IAEA, meeting the requirements of the decisions of the Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors. Q One more question, if I might. Can you say when and where and what level the so-called higher level talks will be held? MR. BOUCHER: No, I can't. No meeting has been scheduled. I think I just said I didn't have anything further on that, other than to say that we are willing to meet with North Korea to help resolve this current situation. Q And how do you arrange for the meeting? Do you think it necessary to have a preparatory talks to arrange for the higher level talks? MR. BOUCHER: Once again, nothing is scheduled at this point, so I don't think I can go any more into the schedule. Q Richard, there's a report from Geneva that the small U.N. contingent in north Iraq is being withdrawn for lack of funds. Do you know anything about that? MR. BOUCHER: No, I don't. Q Could you check on it? MR. BOUCHER: I'll check on that. Q Richard, Saudi Arabia announced earlier today that it is shutting down a human rights group, and there have been reports in addition that some of the people involved in that group are going to face retribution, including dismissal from their jobs. Does the U.S. Government have any reaction to that? MR. BOUCHER: I hadn't seen that. I'll have to check on that for you. Q Thank you. (The briefing concluded at 1:10 p.m.) (###)